Educational Outcomes across Space and Demographic Groups 1.Facts and Hypotheses about variation in outcomes by space 2.The Surprising Progress in UK 3.Implications for the US Richard Freeman, Steve Machin and Martina Viarengo The Brookings Institution November 20, 2008

I) Facts (we did not know) 1)Wide cross-country variation in the dispersion of test scores of students among schools compared to the dispersion of scores within schools 2)US fits in middle of distribution 3)Country variation in the decomposition is greater than the variation for US states, but still large variation in US 4)Variation in mean scores less among US states than among countries

US: Variance Decomposition across Space, NAEP Mathematics Test Score 8th grade, 2003 Schools States Census Divisions Census Regions

Hypotheses for differences in relative importance of between/within school contribution to variance Homogeneity of population Size of country/state Housing location and segregation by income sorting of students with no school effect EDUCATIONAL POLICY

II. UK Education Policy and Reforms: Analysis of School Averages 1. Improved School-level Performance, : increased mean test score, decreased std dev 2.Significant stable variation across space 3.Changes in school performance

1. Primary and Secondary Schools: Mean Test Scores Up and Std dev down,

UK: Variance Decomposition across Space, Primary and Secondary Schools, 2000 and 2006

UK: Variance Decomposition across Space, Primary Schools, KS-2, 2000 Postcode Sectors Postcode Districts LEAs Regions

UK: Variance Decomposition across Space, Primary Schools, KS-2, 2006 Postcode Sectors Postcode Districts LEAs Regions

UK: Variance Decomposition across Space, Secondary Schools, KS-4, 2000 Postcode Sectors Postcode Districts LEAs Regions

UK: Variance Decomposition across Space, Secondary Schools, KS-4, 2006 Postcode Sectors Postcode Districts LEAs Regions

Some schools had big changes in Performance, Primary Schools, by Region,

Some schools had big changes in Performance, Secondary Schools, by Region,

Interpretation Some of change is regression to mean Distribution of changes shows “fat tail”

Hypotheses Decline in variation and improvements due to policy changes: 1988 Education Reform Act Introduction of market mechanisms (e.g., introduction of parental choice, parent representation on governing bodies, linking school funding with student enrolment numbers, National Curriculum) Introduction of the league tables 1998 Introduction of National Literacy and Numeracy Hours Other reforms (National Vocation Qualifications, Modern Apprenticeship Scheme) Large changes for some schools reflects policy, leadership as opposed to changes in composition of students or random variation

III. Implications for the US: UK vs US policy changes

Lessons from the British Experience

Future Work Extend the analysis to other countries that have different educational policies (i.e., Finland, Sweden, Germany and the Netherlands) Extend the analysis to demographic groups (i.e., women, ethnic minorities and immigrants)

Summary Analysis of the educational inequality across countries and within countries - Consistency of countries over time but wide differences within countries as well as between and within schools, heterogeneity Reasons for differences in outcomes? Education Policy and Reforms in the UK - Improvement of average school performance over time at both primary and secondary levels, possible explanations Extend the analysis to other countries and specific demographic groups