by Dr. Ghulam Rasul Chief Meteorologist Pakistan Meteorological Department Flood Management and Climatic Impacts on Water Resources in Pakistan LEAD Pakistan Leadership Develop Programme (LDP)-Cohort 18 3 rd Learning Session on Climatic Impacts and Disaster in Water 1-5 June 2015, Regent Plaza Hotel & Convention Centre, Karachi

PMD Seismology Meteorology Hydrology

LINKAGE TO OTHER MINISTRIES AVIATION METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES AVIATION DIVISION FLOOD FORECASTING SERVICES MINISTRY OF WATER & POWER AGROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES MINISTRY OF FOOD SECURITY & RESEARCH NEW MOON PREDICTION & ASTRONOMICAL DATA ANALYSIS MINISTRY OF RELIGIOUS AFFAIRS R & D /RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES MINISTRY OF SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING & CLIMATOLOGY CLIMATE CHANGE DIVISION & DISASTER MITIGATION ORGANIZATIONS

Islamabad Karachi Lahore Multan Peshawar Quetta Regional Forecasting Centres Flood Forecasting Division

Total 39 Rain Gauges Total 57 Rain Gauges Total 70 Rain GaugesTotal 120 Rain Gauges

Islamabad Karachi Lahore Mangla Sialkot R.Y.Khan Radar Network of PMD

RADAR NETWORK OF PMD 5 cm radar at Islamabad 10 cm radar at FFD Lahore Area covered by Doppler radar at Lahore DIK IBD RHK KHI LHR

ISLAMABAD RADAR OUTPUT ACCESSIBLE THROUGH PMD WEBSITE (Updated after every 10 minutes)

NATIONWIDE RADAR NETORK OUTPUT ACCESSIBLE THROUGH PMD WEBSITE (Half hourly update)

PAKISTANPAKISTAN INDIAINDIA AFGHANISTANAFGHANISTAN INDUS

Chenab Jhelum Beas Sutlej Ravi

Pakistan’s Cryospheric Assets Number of Glaciers Area of Glaciers (km2) Volume of Ice (km3) Ranges HKH

Cryosphere Monitoring Network of Pakistan

Glimpses of Glacier Monitoring Stations in Northern Pakistan Askoli, Shigar Valley 2015 m a.s.l Passu Ghar, Passu Glacier 3200 m a.s.l Urdukas, Baltoro Glacier 3926 m a.s.l Patundas, Passu Glacier 4335 m a.s.l,

EXISTING TELEMETRIC RAIN & RIVER STATIONS (METEORBURST COMMUNICATION)

Flood/Tsunami/Tropical Cyclone Forecasting Models IFAS Model- developed in collaboration with Japanese ICHARMIFAS Model- developed in collaboration with Japanese ICHARM FEWS Model- Adopted from NESPAKFEWS Model- Adopted from NESPAK WEB-DHMS Model- Tokyo UniversityWEB-DHMS Model- Tokyo University Storm Track Model- CSIRO AustraliaStorm Track Model- CSIRO Australia Wave Model- MRI JapanWave Model- MRI Japan WRF & COSMO Model- for research on α, β, γ meso-scale phenomenaWRF & COSMO Model- for research on α, β, γ meso-scale phenomena

1. Federal Minister, Water & Power, Islamabad. 2. Governor (All Provinces). 3. Chairman NDMA, Islamabad. 4. Chief Minister (All Provinces). 5. Secretary, Aviation Division, Islamabad. 6. Secretary, Ministry of Water & Power, Islamabad. 7. Secretary, Ministry of Information, Islamabad. 8. Chairman NHA, Islamabad. 9. Chief Secretary (All Provinces & AJK). 10. PDMA’S (D.G’S, All Provinces & AJK). 11. Administrator & Chief Secretary, Gilgit-Baltistan. 12. Chairman, Indus River System Authority, Islamabad. 13. Chairman, Federal Flood Commission, Islamabad. 14. Relief Commissioner, (All Provinces & A.J.K). 15. The Secretary General, Red Crescent, Islamabad. 16. Secretary, Irrigation Department, (All Provinces). 17. D.G. Engineers, Eng. Directorate GHQ, Rawalpindi 18. D.G. Relief, (All Provinces). 19. D.G. Emergency Relief Cell, Cabinet Division, Islamabad. 20. Chief Engineer, Mangla/Tarbela/Chashma. 21. Chief Engineer, Irrigation (All Provinces). 22. Chief Engineer, (All Barrages). 23. Chief Engineer, C.D.O. (Muzaffarabad). 24. Commissioner for Indus Waters, Lahore. 25. All other concerned. Flood Warning Dissemination

Managing Climate Extremes and Disasters in Asia: IPCC SREX Report Number of Disasters and damages due to weather and climate in recent past history

History of Climate related Disasters in Pakistan Pakistan Floods (1950, 1956, 1957, 1973, 1976, 1978, 1988, 1992, 1994, 2001, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014)Pakistan Floods (1950, 1956, 1957, 1973, 1976, 1978, 1988, 1992, 1994, 2001, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014) Pakistan Floods 2010: (Around 2000 people died and over 20 million affected)Pakistan Floods 2010: (Around 2000 people died and over 20 million affected) 2007 Cyclone Yemyin July 2007: 730 people died, some 350,000 people were displaced, 1.5m affected and more than 2 m livestock perished.2007 Cyclone Yemyin July 2007: 730 people died, some 350,000 people were displaced, 1.5m affected and more than 2 m livestock perished. Tropical cyclone Gonu (2007), Phet 2010, also proved devastating in the recent past history of PakistanTropical cyclone Gonu (2007), Phet 2010, also proved devastating in the recent past history of Pakistan Drought: At least 1.2 million people in Balochistan were affected by drought, and over hundreds of people died, mostly because of dehydration, Millions of animals perished Drought: At least 1.2 million people in Balochistan were affected by drought, and over hundreds of people died, mostly because of dehydration, Millions of animals perished.

Images of Pakistan Floods Sindh:2011 KP 2010 Sindh 2011 Punjab 2012 Balochistan 2013 Punjab 2014

Extent of Monsoon Currents Moisture Flux

25 Pakistan’s Water Resources - Facts  IRS Inflows (1976 to 2010)  Reservoir Capacity (Mangla + Chashma + Tarbela) Original : 18.4 MAF(≈ 12.6 % of Average Annual Flows) Year 2001: 14.1 MAF(≈ 9.6 % of Average Annual Flows) Present : MAF(≈ % of Average Annual Flows)  Relative Storage Capacity of some countries  Pakistan30 Days (after Mangla Raising)  India120 (1980s)-325 Days  Egypt700 Days  USA 900 Days AnnualIn Kharif ( Apr-Sep) In Rabi ( Oct-Mar) Average (1976 to 2010) MAF82%18% Maximum (in 2010) MAF Minimum (in ) MAF

Pakistan has second highest Risk factor regarding floods after Bangladesh

CYCLONE - Another Threat THREATS by Changing Climate Climate Change - Seasonal Shifts - Glaciers Melting - Sea Level Rise - Drought - Extreme Weather Events Frequency/Intensity of Heat/Cold Waves Torrential Rains/Landslides Tropical Cyclones Societal Impacts Agriculture Energy Water Health Climate Change, caused by Natural and Human Activities, is now widely recognized as the major environmental problem facing the Planet Earth

Regions/Tracks of TC/Hurricanes/Typhoons TyphoonsHurricanes Tropical Cyclones 80% NH 20% SH Equator

Frequency of Tropical Cyclones in Indian Ocean MayJunSepOctNov Bay of Bengal Cyclonic Storm Severe Cyc. Storm Arabian Sea Cyclonic Storm Severe Cyc. Storm

Comparison of Sea Surface Temperature for Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea ( ) Arabian sea is showing higher SST values compared to Bay of Bengal since 2000 BOB Arb Sea Frequency of Tropical Storms in Arabian Sea

Average Physical Exposure to Tropical Cyclones, assuming constant hazard, in thousand of people per year IPCC SREX Report’s Findings (Tropical Cyclones)

Jan Feb Snow Maxima is shifting towards February Snow Residency Period is Shrinking

Black Carbon Name of Glacier Length (km) AspectCarbon (ng/m2) Diameter (micron) Hinarchi17S Hisper53NW Minapin16N Gutumi14W Bualtar20NW63116

Historical GLOF floods in Gilgit-Baltistan YearDateGlacierRiver 1929?Chung KhumdanShyok 1932?Chung KhumdanShyok 1973?BaturaHunza 1974?BaturaHunza 1977?Balt BareHunza 1978SeptemberDarkot/BaradosGilgit AugKhalti/GupisGilgit JunShimshalHunza JulKand/HusheIndus AprGhulkinHunza JanPassuHunza AprGhulkinHunza MayGhulkinHunza MayGhulkinHunza /15 JuneGhulkinHunza MarGhulkinHunza David Archer GTZ/WAPDA August 2001, UNDP Report 2007, NARC Report 2008, Focus Humanitarian Assistance and Pamir times

Climate Projections for 21 st Century

Decadal Mean Precipitation (mm) Change RCP 4.5 Decadal Mean Precipitation (mm) Change RCP 4.5

Expected Change in Mean annual cycle of monthly temperature ( ◦ C) and rainfall (mm/day) compared with Average

CONCLUSION All indicators suggest that water cycle variability will be the greatest challenge in changing climate Too much water and too little water

Way Forward Improvement of Observation NetworkImprovement of Observation Network Forests can reverse the climate change process even under global warmingForests can reverse the climate change process even under global warming Enhance water storageEnhance water storage Coordination among Research GroupsCoordination among Research Groups Establishment of Water Environment ForumEstablishment of Water Environment Forum Scientific research on future of water resources must become part of policy formulationScientific research on future of water resources must become part of policy formulation Mobilization of AcademiaMobilization of Academia

Thank You