By Prof.Dr Engr.S.M.Bhutta Electrical Energy Crises Remedial Measures, Emphasizing the hydel power role By Prof.Dr Engr.S.M.Bhutta

Energy the lifeline of economic development. Pakistan is the poorest of the poor as far as energy consumption for capital is concerned. Per capita energy consumption, is one of the indicator of Industrial development and quality of life of a country. Pakistan has 14 Million BTU’s as compared to 92 Million BTU’s of Malaysia and 34 Million BTU’s for China. Per Capita electrical consumption per year of Pakistan is 470kWh, & of Malaysia is 2,708 & of Singapore is 6,775 kWh

Electrical Power Generation Plan

2005

Electric Power Demand (2007-2025)

Generation Expansion Plan 2007-2030   2007 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 Hydel 6474 7379 9071 17423 23948 IPPs 6466 14205 22045 36345 58955 95355 Genco+KESC 6431 10082 Rental 150 846 Total 19521 32512 42044 64696 93831 130231

Generation Expansion Plan (2007-2030) As per generation expansion plan system needs additions of 32512 MW and 93831 MW by years 2012 and by 2025, respectively.

Hydropower Generation Expansion Plan 2597 MW by 2015 and 17474 MW by 2025.  

Hydropower Addition as Per Generation Expansion Plan

Hydropower projects under study. Sr. No. Project River Locati on Installed Capacity (MW) Tentative completion month of the study Present Status Estimated Construction Cost (US$) 1 Keyal Khwar Patan 122 Jun 2009 Feasibility Study completed. Detailed Design and Tender Documents initiated. 160 million 2 Kohala 1100 Aug 2009 Feasibility Study, Detailed Design and Tender Documents in progress. 1.7 billion 3 Dasu 4000 Mar 2011 Feasibility Study in progress. 6.5 billion 4 Lower Spat Gah Spat Gah 610 Dec 2010 700 million 5 Chor Nullah 621 6 Bunji Gilgit 5400 Apr 2010 6 billion 7 Phandar Ghizar 80 Sep 2009 Appointment of Consultants for Detailed Design and Tender Documents in process. 65 million

TOTAL 20770 32.15 billion 8 Basho Skardu 28 Sep 2009 Appointment of Consultants for Detailed Design and Tender Documents in process. 30 million 9 Lawi Shishi Darosh - Chitral 70 Jun 2011 Feasibility Study completed. PC-II for Detailed Design and Tender Documents initiated. 120 million 10 Thakot 2800 Jun 2013 PC-II for Feasibility Study, Detailed Design and Tender Documents under preparation. 5 billion 11 Patan Jun 2015 12 Golen Gol Golen Gol- Mastuj Chitral - Mastuj 106 Nov 2008 Study for Detailed Design and Tender Documents in progress. Tendering progress initiated. 130 million 13 Harpo Harpo- Lungma 33 PC-II for Detailed Design and Tender Documents prepared & ready for submission to Ministry of Water & Power. 40 million 14 Yulbo 3000 Desk study & field reconnaissance initiated 6 billion TOTAL 20770 32.15 billion

Power Sector Installed Capacity of Pakistan An overview of Installed Capacity of Power Sector of the country is as follows: WAPDA Thermal - 6441 MW Hydel - 6464 MW Nuclear - 462 MW IPPS (Thermal) - 6154 MW Total - 19521 MW Study of the utilization of various sources of power development in the country concludes as follows: Gas - 35.7% Oil - 28.7% Coal - 0.3% Nuclear - 2.3% Hydel - 33%

Components of Hydropower System in Pakistan Installed Hydropower Stations Components of Hydropower System in Pakistan Sr. No. Name of Station Installed capacity (MWs) 1 Tarbela 3478.00 2 Ghazi Barotha 1450.00 3 Mangla 1000.00 4 Warsak 240.00 5 Chashma 184.00 6 Rasul 22.00 7 Malakand 19.60 8 Dargai 20.00 9 Nandipur 13.80 10 Shadiwal 13.50 11 Chichoki Malian 13.20 12 K.Garhi & Renala 5.10 13 Chitral 1.00 14 Satpara 4.86 Total 6464.00

Name of Project (MW) Present Status Public Sector Future Projects Name of Project Installed Capacity (MW) Present Status Kalabagh 3600 Feasibility & Tender Documents Completed Basha 4500 Feasibility Completed & Detailed Design in Progress Munda 660 “ Total 8760

Hydropower Projects in Private Sector Name of Project Capacity (MW) Tentative Commissioning New Bong Escape at 84 2010 Rajdhani at Punch (AJK) 132 2011 Matiltan at Swat 2012 Malakand III( ) 81 2008 Kotli 100 Gulpur (AJK) 120 Gabral – Kalam 101

WAPDA’s RESTRUCTURING N T D C ( 1 ) POWER WING GENCOs ( 4 ) DISCOs ( 9 ) GENERATION TRANSMISSION DISTRIBUTION Thermal Power Stations Grid Station/Trans. Lines Operation & Maintenance Area Electricity Boards

OVERVIEW OF PAKISTAN POWER SECTOR GENERATION PATTERN Hydel Oil 6489 MW 6497 MW (33%) (34%) Nuclear 452 MW (2%) Total 19403 MW Coal Gas 5815 MW (30%) 150 MW (1%)

WAPDA’s RESTRUCTURING N T D C ( 1 ) WAPDA HYDEL (1) POWER WING GENCOs ( 4 ) DISCOs ( 9 ) GENERATION TRANSMISSION DISTRIBUTION Thermal Power Stations Grid Station/Trans. Lines Operation & Maintenance Distribution Companies

1. Technology and Information Barriers. 2. Policy Barriers. There are several Barriers in the development of Hydel Power 1. Technology and Information Barriers. 2. Policy Barriers. 3. Regulatory Barriers. 4. Institutional Barriers. 5. Financial Barriers. 6. Interconnection Barriers. 7. Tariff. 8. Procedural impediments. 9. Risks a. Hydrological Risks b. Geological Risks. c. Environment Risks. d. Miscellaneous.

Technology and information Barriers. We lack knowledge & information about the technology of hydel power. Need for education of hydel power technology not only for the students & engineers but also for general public Strategy to achieve five E’s E----- Education E----- Energy E----- Employment E----- Equity E----- Enterprise UET Taxila has taken a lead in starting the classes for post graduate students about Hydel Power to implement the most important “Es” of education in energy & for employment on equity basics for enterprises.

and Micro Hydel Plants Oil, Gas and Coal Renewable Energy resources Suitable human resource development to fulfill the energy growth requirements

PAKISTAN’S HYDROPOWER POTENTIAL (SUMMARY) Sr. No. River/ Tributary Power (MW) 1. Indus River 35760 2. Tributaries of Indus (Northern Areas) of NWFP 5558 Sub Total (1+2) 41318 3. Jhelum River 3143 4, Kunhar River 1250 5. Neelum River & its Tributaries 2459 6. Poonch River 397 Sub Total (3+4+5+6) 7249 7. Swat River & its Tributaries 2388 8. Chitral River & its Tributaries 2282 Sub Total (7+8) 4670 9. Schemes below 50 MW on Tributaries 1290 TOTAL 54527

PAKISTAN’S HYDROPOWER POTENTIAL 41816 MW 7249 MW 4528 MW 1290 MW Swat & Chitral River Jhelum River Basin Small Hydel Indus River Basin

DIAMER BASHA DAM MULTI-PURPOSE PROJECT (PROFILE OF PROJECT UNDER EXECUTION) Project Location Chilas on Indus River 315 km upstream of Tarbela Dam, Height of Dam 272 m Length of Dam 990 m Gross Storage 8.1 Million-acre feet (MAF) Live Storage 6.4MAF Total Installed Capacity 4,500MW Total Number of Units 12, each of 375 MW Power Houses 2 (2,250 MW each) Average Generation 18,000 Gwh/ annum Construction Period 2009-2017 Present Status Feasibility Completed in 2007. Construction to start by mid 2009.

(Multi Purpose but Made Controversial) KALABAGH DAM PROJECT (Multi Purpose but Made Controversial) NEED FOR KALABAGH DAM FOR IRRIGATION & ELECTRICTY 35 million acres land of Pakistan is irrigated by canals and tube wells. Canal with drawl increased from 67 to 105 MAF between the years 1947 and 1976 . Storage depleted by 5MAF by 2006. Situation of water shortage, threat of famine Pakistan will have reached the stage of “acute water shortage”, where people fight for every drop of water.

NATIONAL LOSS IF KALABAGH DAM IS NOT BUILT National food needs would be jeopardized as of population growth. 28% loss of storage capacity of the on-line reservoirs due to sedimentation would result in shortage of committed irrigation supplies. For implementation of Water Apportionment Accord 1991, new storages are essential. In its absence it would give rise in bitter inter-provincial disputes, The Annual energy generated at Kalabagh would be equivalent to 20 million barrels of oil otherwise needed to produce thermal power.

Reservoir Live storage 6.1 MAF Retention level 915 ft SPD* Minimum reservoir level 825 ft SPD* Area at retention level 164 sq mile Main Dam Crest elevation 940 ft SPD* Crest width 50 ft Maximum height 260 ft Length 4,375 ft Installed Capacity 3600 MW Estimated Cost about US$6.2 Billion

APPREHENSION OF NWFP 1. flooding of Peshawar Valley including Nowshera ®Backwater effect of Kalabagh Lake would end about 10 miles downstream of Nowshera. 2. Area of Mardan, Pabbi and Swabi plains would be adversely affected creating water logging and salinity. ® Lowest ground levels at Mardan, Pabbi and Swabi areas are 970, 960 and 1000 feet above MSL respectively, as compared to the maximum conservation level of 915 ft for Kalabagh operation pattern of reservoir cannot block the land drainage and cause water logging or salinity

Resettlement of Affected Population will be properly compensated 4.Operation of Mardan SCARP would be adversely affected. ®The invert levels of main drains of Mardan SCARP are higher than reservoir elevation of 915 feet and the back water level in Kabul River and Kalapani Khwar. These drains would keep on functioning without any obstruction. 5.Fertile cultivable land would be submerged. ®Total cultivable affected land under the reservoir is only 35,000 acres,(24,500 acres in Punjab 3,000 acres in NWFP).irrigated land would be only 3,000 acres (2,900 acres in Punjab and 100 acres in NWFP). 6.Population Dislocation ® total population to be relocated is 120320 of which 78170 shall be from Punjab and 42150 from NWFP. Resettlement of Affected Population will be properly compensated

APPREHENSIONS OF SINDH No surplus water to fill Kalabagh reservoir ® Annual average of 35 MAF has escaped below Kotri to Sea. ® Kalabagh reservoir will be filled up by only 6MAF, which will gradually be released to the provinces. ® Indus River System Authority (IRSA) has studied and confirmed that sufficient water is available for further storage.

2. Anxiety the project would render Sindh into desert. ® Dams don’t consume water! These only store water during flood season and make it available on crop demand basis ® It estimated that after Kalabagh, the canal withdrawals for Sindh would further increase by about 2.25 MAF. 3.Outlets would be used to divert water from the reservoir ®The project design does not include any provision for diverting water from reservoir. ® A telemetric system employing modern electronic technology has recently been installed at each barrage and other flow control points to monitor discharge in various canals commands, on real time basis under the auspices of Indus Water River System Authority (IRSA).

4.Cultivation in “Sailaba” areas would be effected ® Flood peaks above 300,000 cusecs would still be coming after construction of Kalabagh Dam, without detriment to the present agricultural practices, while large floods would be effectively controlled. This would, in fact, be conducive to installation of permanent tube wells to provide perennial irrigation facility in rive rain areas. The local farmer can look forward to having two crops annually instead of the present one crop. 5.Sea Water intrusion estuary would accentuate. ® Data shows that sea water intrusion, seems to be at its maximum even now, and it is unlikely to be aggravated further by Kalabagh Dam.

BENEFITS & CHALLENGES OF HYDEL POWER DEVELOPMENT Hydel Potential of 54,000MW to be harnessed to avoid load shedding To reduce dependency on oil import Hydel power a stimulator for the socio-economic growth Highly reliable, cheap operation and maintenance charges are very low Able to respond to rapidly changing loads without loss of efficiency The plants have a long life so highly economical No nuisance of smoke, exhaust gases, soot, as environment, friendly Multipurpose to give additional advantages of irrigation Optimal Utilization of Indus River for development of Hydropower Projects in cascade system

Technology and Information Barriers & Risks of Hydrology Geology etc Strategy for five E’s, Education, Energy, Employment, Equity, Enterprise Attractive Policy & incentives required Upfront & Feed-in Tariff necessary Hydrological studies on all streams, to have central data bank of hydrology Action Plan with targets for faithful implementation

Need to simplify and standardized Environment Assessment Institute for dissemination of technology, training and R&D recommended Communication Infrastructure development up to the site is required New approaches to financing, environmental and social issues, barriers and their mitigations, to enhance public acceptance, and to build consensus Need for technology transfer and & local technology development Targeted and compatible human resource development in line with energy generation profile

Challenges in Hydropower Projects More Capital intensive compared to thermal Longer gestation and construction Period More Construction Risks (inflation, cost overruns, delays, geological surprises, floods, extreme weather, socio-political) Higher Tariff in the initial years No “off-the-shelf” or standard machines similar to thermal plants Very site specific. Usually a number of options for developing each site High percentage of civil works (70-75%) - difficult to estimate end costs Operational Risks (hydrological risk, multiple uses, future developments/diversions) Environmental & resettlement issues Institutional set up at provincial level

Challenges in Hydropower Projects Generally located in remote area, lack of basic infrastructure (access roads, tunnels, electricity, telephone, colony, potable water, manpower) Dedicated and expensive delivery infrastructure required Extra thermal capacity for backup in low water season Hydel Generation varies with availability of water & head Limited International experience in Private Hydropower Projects Specific Tariff & Security Documents issues Project Agreements (IA, PPA) are different and complex Clearances from the Provinces, Water Use Agreement etc.