Preliminary Economic Baseline MASST Model Politecnico di Milano Version Modellers Workshop, Milano 7-8 February 2013 Territorial Scenarios and Visions for Europe (ET2050)

Andreu Ulied Greece and Castilla have continous decline from now to 2030, while many Northern European regions have extremely high growth. It is feasible for a region to keep a negative GDP ratio for 20 years in average?, it is feasible for Netherlands to have over the next 20 years the same ratio Spain and Italy had during the "Spanish miracle" and the "Italian miracle" (both ending as we know). Comments Ugo Fratesi The baseline assumes crisis up to 2015, which means that the regions which weakest and most affected by the crisis can be unable to fully recover from the crisis. The European growth rate is slightly less than 2%, which is in line with the long term trend. Some regions and countries are winners, but I don't want to think that 3% is impossible for the most performing regions

Andreu Ulied -The Mediterranean Sun Belt is not growing much. -Present trends in Easter Europe do not moderate over time. If economy grows probably there are people moving back Comments Ugo Fratesi Population results are mostly based on natural rates (as coming from multipoles) and migration can only partially affect the natural growth, population structure is something which needs long times to adjust.

Andreu Ulied -Regions with high unemployment now (Spain 25%) should not grow faster than other regions? -a very low GDP with high unemployment over 20 years... seems hard to live with for these regions. -Castilla has less GDP, more employment, more industry. How it is feasible? Comments Ugo Fratesi There are regions where employment grows more than GDP and vice-versa. The difference is allowed by productivity growth, so that for example Italy created lots of jobs in the early 2000's with very limited GDP growth, due to the creation of lowly productive jobs.

Andreu Ulied -Catalonia, Valencia, Balears have less services, and have more manufacture: reindustrialisation (seems a breaking trend, no a baseline...). Eastern EU countries should'nt get most manufacture growth? Keeping manufacture in the center of Europe would be just great. Comments Ugo Fratesi These are the predictions of the model based on the baseline assumptions, including the length of the crisis. It is however unlikely that Eastern regions could further industrialize, on the contrary we can expect a shift towards services there (but the picture is mixed and differentiated by regions).

Andreu Ulied -Catalonia, Valencia, Balears have less services, and have more manufacture: reindustrialisation (seems a breaking trend, no a baseline...). Eastern EU countries should'nt get most manufacture growth? Keeping manufacture in the center of Europe would be just great. Comments Ugo Fratesi These are the predictions of the model based on the baseline assumptions, including the length of the crisis. It is however unlikely that Eastern regions could further industrialize, on the contrary we can expect a shift towards services there (but the picture is mixed and differentiated by regions).