World Energy Perspectives and Consequences for Europe Claude Mandil Executive Director International Energy Agency FIIA EU-Presidency Lecture Series Helsinki, 3 May 2006

Business-as-usual Scenario 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000 14 000 16 000 18 000 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Mtoe Oil Natural gas Coal Nuclear power Other renewables Hydro In the Reference Scenario, based on current trends, global energy demand will rise by 52 % by 2030

Sustainable for the World nor Europe! This is Not Sustainable for the World nor Europe!

World Energy-Related CO2 Emissions Global emissions grow 62% between now & 2030, with developing countries’ emissions overtaking OECD’s in the 2020s

EU CO2 Emissions in the “Business-as-usual” Scenario 1990 = 3 733 Mt EU emissions will be 9% and 20% above 1990 levels by 2010 and 2030 respectively

Share of OPEC and CIS in Global Oil and Natural Gas Supply

Electricity Deprivation In 2030, if no new policies are implemented, there will still be 1.4 billion people without electricity

But the future is not predetermined…

Global CO2 Emissions in the Reference & Alternative Scenarios Policies that governments are already considering – but have not yet enacted – would cut CO2 emissions by 16% in 2030

Energy efficiency offers Energy Efficiency Has A Key Role To Play And Is Available In The Short Term Energy efficiency offers substantial energy and greenhouse gas savings at low or negative cost energy security and reliability benefits enhanced business competitiveness and social welfare Compact Fluorescent Lamps High performance buildings LED traffic lights Least life-cycle cost appliances A B C D E F G Efficient information and communication technologies Reducing standby power consumption Super windows & daylighting Labelling and certification

Avoiding 1 Billion Tons of CO2 per Year Coal Replace 300 conventional, 500-MW coal power plants with “zero-emission” power plants, which means….. CO2 Sequestration Install 1000 Sleipner CO2 sequestration plants Wind Install 200 x current US wind generation Solar PV Install 1300 x current US solar generation Nuclear Build 140 1-GW power plants Efficient Lighting Replace ~95% of incandescence lighting (i.e. phase out) Adapted from Pacala & Socolow, Science 2004

-- from “G8 Gleneagles Communiqué” “We will act with resolve and urgency to meet our shared multiple objectives of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, improving the global environment, enhancing energy security and cutting air pollution in conjunction with our vigorous efforts to reduce poverty“ -- from “G8 Gleneagles Communiqué”

The IEA’s Contribution to the Gleneagles Plan of Action (Examples) Concrete Measures to Raise Energy Efficiency: Limit Standby Power Use to 1-Watt A Fuel-Efficient Tire Program Efficiency standards for television “set-top” boxes More Efficient Lighting Energy Technology Perspectives A new publication providing scenario analysis of the potential of energy technologies to 2050 How much can different technologies deliver? By when can they deliver? What barriers need to be overcome? This (and other) work will be considered by G8 Leaders in the lead up to the St. Petersburg Summit

The EU Green Paper “A European Strategy for Sustainable, Competitive and Secure Energy” Identifies six key areas where action is necessary: Competitiveness and the internal energy market Diversification of the energy mix Solidarity Sustainable development Innovation and technology External policy The Spring European Council and the European Parliament are invited to react to the Paper The Commission will then table concrete proposals for action Energy security and Energy efficiency Adequate and timely investment Developing a truly internal market

The EU Green Paper The Proposals could be improved by: Norms and standards: Taking a stronger stance in terms of the use of norms and standards to obtain end-use energy efficiency improvements Renewables: Paying more attention to the costs of setting overly ambitious renewables targets and putting more focus on improving their cost-competitiveness through R&D A European regulator: Giving real consideration to the bold proposal of establishing a new regulator for cross-border investment and trade issues

What a wonderful challenge for the Finnish Presidency!