Understanding the polls: Ipsos MORI’s election BPC ENQUIRY 19 JUNE

Before we start 1.LOSE BATHWATER, KEEP BABY 2.FOCUS ON WHAT HAPPENED IN OUR POLLS 3.STILL AT DIAGNOSIS STAGE – MORE TO LEARN FROM OUR/BPC REVIEW

Reminder of our approach Telephone RDD (c 80% landline, 20% mobile), GB adults 18+ Quotas on age, gender, region, work status, social grade Weights on age x gender, work status x gender, region, ethnicity, tenure, car in h/hold, public/private sector, social grade Two-part voting intention: “How would you vote in a General Election tomorrow”, and “Which party are you most inclined to support” to undecided/refuseds Publish two voting intention figures: headline based on all absolutely certain to vote (10/10 on a ten-point scale) and all voters Further additions to final poll: small number of recalls, exclude non-registered, include postal voters, re-allocate refusals according to newspaper readership 3

Our final poll – all parties less than 2% points away from actual – except Labour, overestimated Base: 862 British adults who are registered and certain to vote 5 th -6 th May HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor/Ipsos MORI calculations from BBC reports Ipsos MORI final pollGB final result Conservative lead = +1Conservative lead = +6.5 CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP GREEN LIB DEM OTHER

‘Shy Tories’ not our problem – instead over-claim among Labour 5 HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW? Base: 1,186 British adults 18+, 5 th – 6 th May 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor/Ipsos MORI calculations from BBC reports Votes (millions)

Turnout lower than we predicted. Normally c10 percentage points lower than claimed, but 16 percentage points in Days before election % certain to vote -9ppt -11ppt -16ppt Difference between actual turnout and certainty to vote

Q. Which party do you think has the best policies on managing the economy: the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats or some other party? Not a new issue of course – and in previous elections certainty of voting filter was successful IPSOS MORI FINAL POLLS – RAW (WEIGHTED) AND FINAL PREDICTIONS All with voting intentionFinal projection % certain to vote

The increase in claimed turnout came mainly from Labour supporters – question worked in 2010, but less successful in differentiating in 2015? Bas: All registered adults 18+ (1,096) 5-6 May 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI/House of Commons HOW LIKELY WILL YOU BE TO VOTE IN AN IMMEDIATE GENERAL ELECTION, ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 10? 8 HOW LIKELY WOULD YOU BE TO VOTE ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 10? IF HAD THE SAME DIFFERENTIAL IN 2015 AS IN 2010, WOULD HAVE HAD CONSERVATIVE 38% LABOUR 32%

The gap between Labour and Conservative supporters’ certainty to vote closed just after the 2010 election 9 % OF SUPPORTERS “ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN TO VOTE” Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor CONSERVATIVELABOUR Base: c.1,000 British adults each month 2010 General Election

Predicting voter turnout one of the key issues facing pollsters worldwide…. 10

If we had taken more account of past voting behaviour (using experimental questions from Ipsos’ international experience)? Base: 862 British adults who are registered and certain to vote 5 th -6 th May British adults who are registered, always/usually/depends vote in GEs and 9/10 certain to vote 11 HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Final poll – all ‘absolutely certain to vote’ Based on those who always/usually depends vote in general elections and 9/10 certain to vote Average error = 1.7Average error = 0.8 CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP GREEN LIB DEM OTHER

Although will continue to explore other angles – and look forward to hearing findings from this enquiry! Further refinements on turnout Late swing Question order/wording Sampling/weighting improvements 12

Thanks for listening