POWER 2013 Through
ProjectedActual Home Sales in thousands NAR 6/2013
Price Changes as per Case Shiller Case Shiller
“Inventories of existing homes are as low as they were in New-home inventories have barely budged from a 50-year low. As a consequence, there are only 5 months of inventory for existing homes and 4 months for new homes, compared with 6 months when market conditions are normal… Moreover, housing is at least fairly valued, if not undervalued. The boom and bust in housing left house price gains far behind income and rent gains.” Celia Chen Senior Director of the Moody's Analytics Research Staff Moody’s Economy Are Properties Overvalued?
Gains as Measured Between the First Quarters of 2004 and 2013 Moody’s Economy
Economist Index of US house Prices – California/Las Vegas
DatePrice Interest Rate P&I Last Year$200,0003.5% $ This Year$220,0004.5% $1, Differencein Payment - $ The Cost of Waiting a Year
Over 12 Months- $2, Over 30 Year Mortgage- $77,983.20
“I don’t think the Fed ultimately would be troubled with a 6.5% mortgage rate.” Doug Duncan Chief Economist for Fannie Mae Inman News
"As the economy continues to improve, we expect to see continued upward movement in long-term interest rates… At today’s house prices and income levels, mortgage rates would have to be nearly 7 percent before the U.S. median priced home would be unaffordable to a family making the median income in most parts of the country.” Frank Nothaft Freddie Mac VP and Chief Economist Freddie Mac
Rate$100,000$200,000$300,000$400,000$500, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Mortgage Amount
NAR 6/2013 Percentage of Distressed Property Sales 35% 18%
Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Tracking Survey 6/2013 Breakdown of Today’s Purchasers
WSJ 6/2013 Agents Who Specialize… in a small geographic area compared to agents who list homes in a large area: 1.Were 4% more likely to sell the home 2.Sell homes for 1.21% more 3.Sell homes above the median price for 1.71% more 4.Sell the home in 5.5 fewer days
Return on Investment January 2000 – July 2013 MSN Money.com, Case Shiller
Months Inventory of Homes for Sale NAR 6/ Months = Normal Market Inventory
S&P Case Shiller 6/2013 S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
JanFebMarAprMay S&P Case Shiller 6/2013 S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
Metropolitan AreaYear-over-Year Atlanta20.8% Boston8.1% Charlotte7.3% Chicago9.3% Cleveland4.8% Dallas7.4% Denver9.9% Detroit19.8% Las Vegas22.3% Los Angeles18.8% Metropolitan AreaYear-over-Year Miami13.0% Minneapolis14.8% New York3.2% Phoenix21.5% Portland12.9% San Diego14.7% San Francisco23.9% Seattle11.4% Tampa11.3% Washington7.2% S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices S&P Case Shiller 5/2013
MARKETING
8.69 Average Mortgage % Rate HISTORICALLY 4.29 Today’s Mortgage % Rate CURRENTLY In the FUTURE? “I don’t think the Fed ultimately would be troubled with a 6.5% mortgage rate.” - Doug Duncan, Chief Economist at Fannie Mae 6/2013 before the financial crisis 6.06 Average after the financial crisis 4.78 Average $3, The annual difference in mortgage payment (P&I) on a $250,000 home loan if rates go from 4.5 to 6.5%. HOME MORTGAGE INTEREST RATES (30 YEAR FIXED) Freddie Mac Rates KCM %
Rate$100,000$200,000$300,000$400,000$500, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Mortgage Amount
z Year-Over-Year change from NAR June 2013 Single Family Residential Condominiums & Co-ops UP 15.8% UP 12.7% UP 11.8% UP 13.7%
% Year-Over-Year Sales Increases by Price Point
Current % Price Change:
Source: WSJ 6/ REASONS to USE an AGENT who SPECIALIZES in YOUR AREA HOMES SELL QUICKER HOMES SELL FOR 1.21% MORE HOMES OVER MEDIAN PRICE SELL FOR 1.71% MORE HOMES ARE MORE LIKELY TO SELL
POWER 2013 Through