HYDROPOWER: A Comparative Energy Review J. Mark Robinson JMR Energy Infra, LLC NWHA February 23, 2011.

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Presentation transcript:

HYDROPOWER: A Comparative Energy Review J. Mark Robinson JMR Energy Infra, LLC NWHA February 23, 2011

Wood to Coal to Oil to ? JMR Energy Infra, LLC

Existing Net Summer Capacity by Energy Source Source: EIA, 1/4/2011 JMR Energy Infra, LLC

Electric Generation Growth 2008 to 2035 JMR Energy Infra, LLC Source: EIA 2010 Annual Energy Outlook GWs

No New Nuclear Generation Sites ,000 Net MW JMR Energy Infra, LLC

Nuclear Time and Money The NRC’s new licensing process takes about 10 years to complete. The estimated capital cost to build a new nuclear plant ranges from $4,000/kW to $8,000/kW. The United States currently has 56,000 metric tons of spent nuclear fuel from nuclear reactors. By the year 2035 it is expected to have 119,000 metric tons with no long term storage. JMR Energy Infra, LLC

New Coal Fired Generation 1997 – Net MW JMR Energy Infra, LLC

Coal Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) S is the problem. CO 2 is a colorless, odorless gas which is lethal to humans in a concentration of 10-11%. To sequestrate CO 2 – Many miles of pipe are needed. Up to 23,000 miles of CO 2 pipeline will be needed between 2010 and 2050 for CCS. (PNNL) – Permanent, non-cycling storage sites must be found. Regulatory Environment Does Not Exist – eminent domain JMR Energy Infra, LLC

New Non-Hydro Renewable Generation 1997 – ,000 Net MW JMR Energy Infra, LLC

Wind and Solar Energy Land Use and Transmission Land use: 500 MW facility – Wind: 30,000 acres – Solar: 3,500 acres DOE 20 percent by 2030 – 300,000 MW 13 to 18 million acres – Mass/Maryland/Conn Renewable sources are not near the market Current regulatory regimes for siting electric transmission are poor S.1462 – Introduced July 16, 2009 JMR Energy Infra, LLC

Sources: FERC Between 2000 and 2009 nine High Voltage (≥345kV)Interstate Transmission Lines were built 682 miles 345 kV Transmission Projects DC 765 kV JMR Energy Infra, LLC

New Natural Gas Fired Generation 1997 – ,000 Net MW JMR Energy Infra, LLC

Transco (204,236,323) Southern (336,330) Kern River (135,886) North Baja (500, 2,700) Tuscarora (96) SCG Pipeline (190) Northwest (191) East Tennessee (510) TETCO (197) El Paso (230,320,150) WBI (80) ANR (194,220) 11 Cheyenne Plains (560) CIG (85,133,105) 12. TransColorado (250) 13. WIC (120,675,350,556) 14. Entrega (1,500) 15. Rockies Express West (1,800) 8 Transwestern (500) Questar (102) Florida Gas (270) East Tennessee (170) 4 6 Northern Border (544,130) Midcontinent (1,500) Southern Trails (120) Gulfstream (1,130, 155) 7 Guardian (750, 537) Trailblazer (324) 12 El Paso (502) Golden Pass (2,500) 14 Columbia (172) 5 8 Dominion (700) Port Arthur (3,000) 9 Center Point (1,237, 280) Vector (245,105) 10 Northern Natural (374) 15 Trunkline (510) TETCO (150) Gulf South(1,700, 560) Natural (200) Elba Express (1,175) Southeast Supply(1,140,175) Gulf Crossing (1,732) Texas Gas (1,609) CenterPoint (132) Rockies Express East (1,800) CenterPoint (132) Southern/Magnolia (82) Cypress (500) NorthernStar (1,300) 1. Islander East (285) 2. Iroquois (100,200) 3. Columbia (135) 4. Transcontinental (130,142) 5. Transcontinental (100) 6. Maritimes (418) 7. Tennessee (500) 8. Tennessee (136) 9. Texas Eastern (900) 10. Algonquin (325) JMR Energy Infra, LLC

Pending Hydropower Projects Sept 2, MW Source: FERC 29 Projects JMR Energy Infra, LLC

Electric Generation Capital Costs Dollars Source: EIA, 2010 JMR Energy Infra, LLC

Six Principles of Energy Infrastructure Siting Six Principles HydropowerRenewables/ Transmission Natural Gas Pipelines 1) Pre-filing xx 2) Exclusive Authority ?x 3) Disciplined Schedule x 4) One Federal Record x 5) Expeditious Judicial Review x 6) Eminent Domain xx JMR Energy Infra, LLC

Cost of FERC Hydro Application JMR Energy Infra, LLC

Integrated Licensing Process JMR Energy Infra, LLC

Evolved Integrated Licensing Process PAD JMR Energy Infra, LLC

Developing a Hydropower Siting Culture Economic Interdependence Appreciation of the time scale for Major Energy Infrastructure Intergenerational Responsibility JMR Energy Infra, LLC

Hydropower’s Future Competition without subsidies - costs Legislative/Regulatory Environment Development Culture JMR Energy Infra, LLC