Research Sponsored By the Product Development Focus Team February 12, 2001 Technology Roadmap Development Presented By: Angie Kelic

Kelic-2/ © 2001 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lean Aerospace Initiative Agenda  Review of research motivation  State of the literature  Goals of the research  Progress to date

Kelic-2/ © 2001 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lean Aerospace Initiative Motivation Timescale Discrepancy  Clockspeed (in the product)  Slower developing (example: airframe)  Faster developing (example: electronics)  Product development timescales  Electronics – 2 years  Military aircraft - ~20 years  Product lifetime  Electronics – 18 months  Military Aircraft > > 10 years

Kelic-2/ © 2001 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lean Aerospace Initiative Motivation The Problem  Leading to:  Obsolescence in newly operational systems  Difficulty in upgrade programs  Technology obsolescence “It is essential to be aware of, and plan for, changes that are likely to occur in COTS hardware and software products.” – USAF Scientific Advisory Board report

Kelic-2/ © 2001 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lean Aerospace Initiative Motivation Historical Perspective  Why now?  Military percent of semiconductor market  1960s - ~10%  Today - <.03%  No incentive for specialized parts  Intel left the market  Motorola left the market

Kelic-2/ © 2001 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lean Aerospace Initiative Motivation Possible Solutions  Lifetime buys  Guess and stockpile  Aftermarket manufacturers  Repair issues  No learning curve/improvement  Requires fund for stockpiling  Congressionally risky

Kelic-2/ © 2001 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lean Aerospace Initiative Motivation Technology Planning  Technology roadmapping  Identify critical product needs/system requirements  Identify process and performance targets  Determine technology alternatives  Set milestones for meeting targets  May select and pursue multiple alternatives to mitigate risk  In use in aerospace for technology planning

Kelic-2/ © 2001 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lean Aerospace Initiative What Is Roadmapping? State of the Literature  Very little (~7 articles) – mostly review of the SIA process  Exploratory thesis, 4 companies – case study  Communications systems  Electronic components  Engines  Printing systems

Kelic-2/ © 2001 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lean Aerospace Initiative What Is Roadmapping? The Component Parts  Forecasting  Planning  Decision making  Design (Kappel, 1998)

Kelic-2/ © 2001 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lean Aerospace Initiative Research Goals  Explore the roadmapping process in aerospace  Characteristics of roadmap development  Characteristics of the roadmap  Use of roadmaps (or substitutes)  Comparisons to earlier exploratory work and examination of trends  Explore the accuracy of the forecasts in roadmapping using the SIA roadmaps as a case study

Kelic-2/ © 2001 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lean Aerospace Initiative Research Procedure  Survey on the roadmapping process  Survey on the use of roadmaps  Statistical analysis of SIA roadmap forecasts and reality

Kelic-2/ © 2001 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lean Aerospace Initiative Roadmap Creation Survey  37 responses to date  ~75% military programs  Some response inconsistencies  Preliminary analysis complete  Likely to obtain additional data with data gathering effort for Roadmap Use Survey

Kelic-2/ © 2001 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lean Aerospace Initiative Position

Kelic-2/ © 2001 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lean Aerospace Initiative Type of Program

Kelic-2/ © 2001 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lean Aerospace Initiative Degree Held

Kelic-2/ © 2001 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lean Aerospace Initiative Roadmap Creation

Kelic-2/ © 2001 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lean Aerospace Initiative Roadmap Use

Kelic-2/ © 2001 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lean Aerospace Initiative Roadmap Update Frequency

Kelic-2/ © 2001 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lean Aerospace Initiative Number of Technologies Roadmapped

Kelic-2/ © 2001 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lean Aerospace Initiative Roadmap Cost

Kelic-2/ © 2001 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lean Aerospace Initiative Roadmap Timespan (years)

Kelic-2/ © 2001 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lean Aerospace Initiative Information Sources

Kelic-2/ © 2001 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lean Aerospace Initiative Information Sources

Kelic-2/ © 2001 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lean Aerospace Initiative Primary Information Sources

Kelic-2/ © 2001 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lean Aerospace Initiative Primary Information Sources

Kelic-2/ © 2001 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lean Aerospace Initiative Information Sources (All and Primary)

Kelic-2/ © 2001 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lean Aerospace Initiative Team Creation

Kelic-2/ © 2001 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lean Aerospace Initiative Team Membership

Kelic-2/ © 2001 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lean Aerospace Initiative Review

Kelic-2/ © 2001 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lean Aerospace Initiative Reviewers

Kelic-2/ © 2001 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lean Aerospace Initiative Distribution

Kelic-2/ © 2001 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lean Aerospace Initiative Critical path items  Final process survey data manipulation and write-up  Roadmap use survey data gathering (need more data, esp. from commercial programs)