Tiger Team project : Model intercomparison of background ozone to inform NAAQS setting and implementation NASA AQAST Meeting U.S. EPA, Research Triangle.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Simulating isoprene oxidation in GFDL AM3 model Jingqiu Mao (NOAA GFDL), Larry Horowitz (GFDL), Vaishali Naik (GFDL), Meiyun Lin (GFDL), Arlene Fiore (Columbia.

Advertisements

Office of Research and Development National Exposure Research Laboratory, Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division Changes in U.S. Regional-Scale Air.

NASA AQAST 6th Biannual Meeting January 15-17, 2014 Heather Simon Changes in Spatial and Temporal Ozone Patterns Resulting from Emissions Reductions: Implications.

Dylan Millet Harvard University with

CAM-Chem and hemispheric transport of ozone and PAN Chemistry-Climate Working Group 15 th Annual CCSM Workshop, Breckenridge, CO June 29, 2010 Arlene M.

CO budget and variability over the U.S. using the WRF-Chem regional model Anne Boynard, Gabriele Pfister, David Edwards National Center for Atmospheric.

AIR POLLUTION IN THE US : Ozone and fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) are the two main pollutants 75 ppb (8-h average) 15  g m -3 (1-y av.)

QUESTIONS 1.Is hexane more or less reactive with OH than propane? 2.Is pentene or isoprene more reactive with OH?

Evaluating the impact of recent changes in

Transpacific transport of pollution as seen from space Funding: NASA, EPA, EPRI Daniel J. Jacob, Rokjin J. Park, Becky Alexander, T. Duncan Fairlie, Arlene.

Effect of global change on ozone air quality in the United States Shiliang Wu, Loretta Mickley, Daniel Jacob, Eric Leibensperger, David Rind.

REFERENCES Maria Val Martin 1 C. L. Heald 1, J.-F. Lamarque 2, S. Tilmes 2 and L. Emmons 2 1 Colorado State University 2 NCAR.

Sensitivity of U.S. Surface Ozone to Isoprene Emissions & Chemistry: An Application of the 1°x1 ° North American Nested GEOS-CHEM Model GEOS-CHEM Model.

NASA Air Quality Applied Sciences Team: Investigating processes affecting Western U.S. air quality Western Air Quality Modeling Workshop Boulder, CO, July.

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review June 30 - July 2, 2009 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review June 30 - July 2, 2009.

Regional to hemispheric influences of

Isoprene emissions in Africa inferred from OMI HCHO ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: This work was funded by the NASA ACMAP program and the South African National Research.

Prediction of Future North American Air Quality Gabriele Pfister, Stacy Walters, Mary Barth, Jean-Francois Lamarque, John Wong Atmospheric Chemistry Division,

OMI HCHO columns Jan 2006Jul 2006 Policy-relevant background (PRB) ozone calculations for the EPA ISA and REA Zhang, L., D.J. Jacob, N.V. Smith-Downey,

Mapping isoprene emissions from space Dylan Millet with

Background Ozone in Surface Air: Origin, Variability, and Policy Implications Arlene M. Fiore Goddard Institute for Space Studies May 20, 2005.

Tiger Team project : Processes contributing to model differences in North American background ozone estimates NASA AQAST Meeting University of Wisconsin-Madison.

Interannual variability in biogenic emissions driven by dynamic vegetation conditions Daniel Cohan (PI), Adetutu Aghedo, Erin Chavez-Figueroa, and Ben.

Source vs. Sink Contributions to Atmospheric Methane Trends:

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Year-to-year variability in Western U.S. high-O 3 events tied to climate regimes and stratospheric intrusions: Implications.

Asian and stratospheric influences on western U.S. ozone air quality AQAST4 Sacramento, CA November 29, 2012 Arlene M. Fiore Acknowledgments. Meiyun Lin.

Source Attribution Modeling to Identify Sources of Regional Haze in Western U.S. Class I Areas Gail Tonnesen, EPA Region 8 Pat Brewer, National Park Service.

Southeast US air chemistry: directions for future SEAC 4 RS analyses Tropospheric Chemistry Breakout Group DRIVING QUESTION: How do biogenic and anthropogenic.

Variability in surface ozone background over the United States: Implications for air quality policy Arlene Fiore 1, Daniel J. Jacob, Hongyu Liu 2, Robert.

OVERVIEW OF ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES: Daniel J. Jacob Ozone and particulate matter (PM) with a global change perspective.

MOZART Development, Evaluation, and Applications at GFDL MOZART Users’ Meeting August 17, 2005 Boulder, CO Arlene M. Fiore Larry W. Horowitz

Hemispheric transport of ozone pollution and the nonlinearities GMI meeting UC Irvine March 17, 2008 Shiliang Wu, Harvard Bryan Duncan, NASA / GSFC Arlene.

Estimating background ozone in surface air over the United States with global 3-D models of tropospheric chemistry Description, Evaluation, and Results.

Improved understanding of global tropospheric ozone integrating recent model developments Lu Hu With Daniel Jacob, Xiong Liu, Patrick.

Air Quality and Climate Connections AQAST9 St. Louis University, St. Louis, MO June 3, 2015 Arlene M. Fiore Acknowledgments: V. Naik (GFDL), E. Leibensperger.

REGIONAL/GLOBAL INTERACTIONS IN ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY Greenhouse gases Halocarbons Ozone Aerosols Acids Nutrients Toxics SOURCE CONTINENT REGIONAL ISSUES:

Simulation Experiments for TEMPO Air Quality Objectives Peter Zoogman, Daniel Jacob, Kelly Chance, Xiong Liu, Arlene Fiore, Meiyun Lin, Katie Travis, Annmarie.

Importance of chemistry-climate interactions in projections of future air quality Loretta J. Mickley Lu Shen, Daniel H. Cusworth, Xu Yue Earth system models.

Using CO observations from space to track long-range transport of pollution Daniel J. Jacob with Patrick Kim, Peter Zoogman, Helen Wang and funding from.

WESTAR Council & the University of Nevada Conference on Western Ozone Transport October 10-12, 2012 Reno, NV.

Key drivers of surface ozone variability, from WUS background to EUS extremes AQAST6 Rice University, Houston, TX January 15, 2014 Arlene M. Fiore Acknowledgments.

Emission reductions needed to meet proposed ozone standard and their effect on particulate matter Daniel Cohan and Beata Czader Department of Civil and.

The Double Dividend of Methane Control Arlene M. Fiore IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria January 28, 2003 ANIMALS 90 LANDFILLS 50 GAS 60 COAL 40 RICE 85 TERMITES.

F.J. Dentener, C. Cuvelier, M.G. Schultz, O. Wild, T.J. Keating, A. Zuber, S. Wu, C. Textor, M. Schulz, C. Atherton, D.Bergmann, I. Bey, G. Carmichael,

ORIGIN OF BACKGROUND OZONE IN SURFACE AIR OVER THE UNITED STATES: CONTRIBUTION TO POLLUTION EPISODES Daniel J. Jacob and Arlene M. Fiore Atmospheric Chemistry.

BACKGROUND AEROSOL IN THE UNITED STATES: NATURAL SOURCES AND TRANSBOUNDARY POLLUTION Daniel J. Jacob and Rokjin J. Park with support from EPRI, EPA/OAQPS.

Background ozone in surface air over the United States Arlene M. Fiore Daniel J. Jacob US EPA Workshop on Developing Criteria for the Chemistry and Physics.

Analysis of Satellite Observations to Estimate Production of Nitrogen Oxides from Lightning Randall Martin Bastien Sauvage Ian Folkins Chris Sioris Chris.

A regional-to-global perspective on attaining the new U.S. ozone NAAQS Panel on Meeting the New Ozone Standard Energy Summit 2015 University of Wisconsin,

Isoprene emissions in Africa inferred from OMI HCHO Eloïse Marais D. Jacob, T. Kurosu, K. Chance, J. Murphy,

Discussion with NAS ITAP Committee

Variability & uncertainty in background ozone: Relevance to present & future O3 NAAQS Arlene M. Fiore Acknowledgments: Pat Dolwick, Terry Keating (US EPA);

Yuqiang Zhang1, Owen R, Cooper2,3, J. Jason West1

Estimates of background ozone and its sources from global models

Meteorological drivers of surface ozone biases in the Southeast US

Linking regional air pollution with global chemistry and climate:

Daniel J. Jacob Harvard University

Randall Martin Dalhousie University

Ozone pollution (events) in the GFDL AM3 chemistry-climate model

The Double Dividend of Methane Control

Daniel J. Jacob Harvard University

SCALE ISSUES IN MODELING INTERCONTINENTAL TRANSPORT

Tiger Team project: Processes contributing to model differences in North American background ozone estimates AQAST PIs: Arlene Fiore (Columbia/LDEO) and.

Questions for consideration

Effects of global change on U.S. ozone air quality

Using satellite observations of tropospheric NO2 columns to infer trends in US NOx emissions: the importance of accounting for the NO2 background Rachel.

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review

Rachel Silvern, Daniel Jacob

Presentation transcript:

Tiger Team project : Model intercomparison of background ozone to inform NAAQS setting and implementation NASA AQAST Meeting U.S. EPA, Research Triangle Park, NC November 16, 2011 AQAST PIs: Arlene Fiore (Columbia/LDEO) and Daniel Jacob (Harvard) Co-I (presenter): Meiyun Lin (Princeton/GFDL) Project personnel: Jacob Oberman (U Wisconsin) Lin Zhang (Harvard) AQ management contacts: Joe Pinto (EPA/NCEA) Pat Dolwick (EPA/OAR/OAQPS)

Objective: Improved error estimates of simulated North American background O 3 (NAB) that inform EPA analyses Problem: Poorly quantified errors in NAB distributions complicate 1) quantifying uncertainties in risk assessments for NAAQS-setting 2) interpreting SIP simulations aimed at attaining the O 3 NAAQS. To date, EPA NAB estimates have been provided by one model. Approach: 1)Compare GFDL AM3 and GEOS-Chem NAB (regional, seasonal, daily) 2)Process-oriented analysis of factors contributing to model differences Initial project results c/o NOAA Hollings Scholar Jacob Oberman at GFDL summer 2011 GEOS-ChemGFDL AM3 Meteorology Offline (GEOS-5)Coupled, nudged to NCEP U and V Strat. O 3 Parameterized (Linoz)Full strat. chem & dynamics Isoprene nitrate chemistry 18% yield w/ zero NO x recycling 8% yield w/ 40% NO x recycling (obs constrained; Horowitz et al, 2007) Lightning NO x tied to obs. flash climat. w/ higher NOx yield at N. mid-lat tied to model convective clouds Emissions EMEP, Streets, NEI 2005, 2006 fires (emitted at surface), MECAN 2.0 ACCMIP emissions w/ climat. fires, vertically distributed <6 km, MEGAN2.1

Two models differ widely in day-to-day variability and seasonal cycle: CASTNet Mtn. West Sites AM3 predicts seasonal cycle in background, GC predicts ~ constant and biased high total in August AM3 predicts rising total and NAB for some observed high- O 3 events in spring, GC predicts a decline  Can NASA satellites offer constraints? 2006 Thick lines: base-case Thin lines: NA Background (zero out NA anthrop. emissions) OBS: 58.3±7.0 OBS: 55.8±7.0

Stratospheric ozone intrusions: May example GFDL AM3GEOS-CHEM 500 hPa NA background (ppb) Bias in surface MDA8 (ppb) vs. CASTNet obs OMI Total Column O 3 OMI/MLS Trop. Column O 3 DU  AM3 better captures the variability due to stratospheric influence, but the magnitude represents an upper limit (biased high w.r.t. surface obs)

Two models differ in seasonal mean estimates for North American background AM3GEOS-Chem Summer (JJA) North American background (MDA8) O 3 in model surface layer Spring (MAM) AM3: More O 3 -strat + PBL-FT exchange? GC: More lightning NO x (~10x over SWUS column) + spatial differences Role for differences in O 3 from wildfires? Biogenic emissions?

Model treatment of wildfires can contribute to model differences in NAB estimates: June 28, 2006 “event” AM3 Elevated PAN above PBL (750 mb) AM3 [ppt]  Need to use event-specific wildfire emissions (satellites)  Uncertainties will remain from (1)vertical distribution of emissions (lower temp., higher PAN prod.) (2) fire plume chemistry GC North American background (MDA8) [ppb]

Two models show different strengths in capturing distributions of base-case and N. American background O 3 Observed GEOS-Chem total AM3 total GEOS-Chem NAB AM3 NAB Surface MDA8 O 3 [ppb] below 1.5 km + above 1.5 km Zhang et. al.,2011 U.S. CASTNet sites MAM sites > 1.5 km JJA sites < 1.5 km  Capitalize on model strengths to inform policy  Develop bias-corrections to harness info on variability / process-level Isop. nitrate chem may play a role AM3 biased high but may better represent distribution shape (wider background range) GC and AM3 bracket observed distribution GC NAB lower, more peaked Frequency per ppb

Improved error estimates of simulated North American background O 3 (NAB) that inform EPA analyses AQ management outcomes: Improved NAB error estimates to support (1)the next revision of the ozone NAAQS, (2)SIP simulations focused on attaining the current ozone NAAQS, (3)development of criteria for identifying exceptional events. Deliverables (Sept. 30, 2012): 1)Report to EPA on confidence and errors in NAB estimates & key factors leading to model differences; documented in peer-reviewed publication 2)Guidance for future efforts to deliver more robust NAB  satellite constraints (next step, OMI/TES c/o L. Zhang)  design multi-model effort (more robust, as in climate research) Possible Long-term Goal: Establish an integrated multi-model and observational analysis framework to inform policy on a sustained basis

Extra Slides

Transport event driven by biomass burning emissions CO biomass burning emissions June 2006 (log-scale) AM3 GC moles / km 2 / day Why is event only in AM3? Hypothesis: Higher vertical distribution in AM3 affects transport and chemistry (PAN only forms at low temperatures) Case 3: Biomass burning

Neither model fully captures trend in observations AM3 predicts seasonal cycle in PRB, GC predicts ~constant Overestimate of total ozone by AM3 Models agree on trend in PRB >1.5 km sites excluding CA sites <1.5 km sites

Biogenic isoprene emissions in AM3 MEGAN 2.1 emission factors [Guenther et al., 2006] AVHRR and MODIS PFT and LAI mapped to MEGAN vegetation types Tied to model surface air temperature  Tg C/yr within NA ( E, 15-55N)  Tg C/yr within the United States  Tg C/yr globally

Two models have similar isoprene emissions, but differ in isoprene nitrate chemistry Nested GEOS-Chem AM3/C48 (~200 km)

Transects along the 40N parallel

Compare w.r.t. satellite products?

Nested GEOS-Chem Zhang et al., 2011 Distribution merged for March-August, canceling GEOS-Chem low distribution in spring (MAM) and high distribution in summer (JJA)