A ROADMAP TOWARDS DEVELOPING A NATIONAL ADAPTATION PLAN (NAP) FOR BANGLADESH : OUTCOME FROM A CONSULTATION MEETING

CONTEXT OF NATIONAL ADAPTATION PLAN NAPA (Developed in 2005, revised in 2009) UNFCCC process-led, for LDCs To highlight a few immediate & urgent projects BCCSAP GOB led Introduced programme ideas, no details Not yet linked with development planning Yet to be owned by various relevant institutions NAP… to be developed UNFCCC led (COP decision), for all Parties Medium and long term, comprehensive Plan

About a NAP Roadmap in Bangladesh Limited Understanding how to develop it A generic ‘Guidebook’ has provided useful directions though it lacks country-specificity To lay out critical aspects What needs to be done (including contextual analysis) How to go about it? Methodological challenges Who will be engaged in NAP process, the Roadmap will provide an instant guideline

Basic Elements of Bangladesh NAP Envisioning the Unseen: What Scenarios? Bangladesh’s Specific Vulnerability? (thematic and territory wise) How to visualize Adaptation Needs in Vulnerable Sectors and locations? Integration of the NAP with National Development mechanism. Who will implement the Plan? The Institutional Setting Monitoring and Evaluation How to Finance the NAP? How to integrate gender sensitivity (women & children) in adaptation?

SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT : Climate Hind-cast (what had happened in the past?); Future projections : Climate model based projections: Time-frame for analysis? (has to be time-specific). Success in Mitigation at global level. Projections of other aspects: which may be highly sensitive to change in climate & climate- induced hydro-bio-geophysical parameters: population, economic & development scenarios, employment, migration, resource utilization including land; etc.

SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT Climate model based projections: Time-frame for analysis? Eastern Himalayan Regional context to be considered (Water & Agriculture) NAP Roadmap Team’s suggestion: 3 timelines in addition to current (say, 2015) timeframe: 2030 and2050 (for planning perspectives) and 2100 (for infrastructural risk perspective) If possible, use 5 year incremental steps PRECIS and other IPCC SRES approved climate models (if validated for Bangladesh) Need guidance and support from global level on scenario development and use of suitable model;

Bangladesh-Specific Vulnerability Once vulnerability is better understood, devising adaptation plan becomes easier Sector- and community-specific vulnerability: as detailed as possible AEZ-specific? Physiographic-specific? Hazard-specific? River-basin specific? Regional aspects specially with respect to Water management. What are the priority sectors and locations? Storm surge in Coastal belt of the country? Salinity intrusion and Sea level rise? Urban drainage congestion?

Bangladesh-Specific Vulnerability Once vulnerability is better understood, devising adaptation plan becomes easier Sector-specific vulnerability: as details as possible What are the priority sectors? Any cross-cutting issue? Water Resources Sector Agriculture Sector (including sub-sectors) Communication sector Physical Infrastructure Food and Health Security Livelihoods Disaster Management Habitation and Urbanization Special attention: Gender Sensitivity

Understanding Adaptation Needs in Vulnerable Sectors Adaptations must be made responsive to future conditions Gender sensitive adaptation Needs for both preventive (or transformative) and reactive adaptations will be considered; consider probability of mal-adaptation. Adaptation should follow specific vulnerability of each (prioritized) sector and territory.

INTEGRATION OF NAP WITH NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PROCESS How key national documents have updated for adaptation? Reflections on recent adaptation strides Community based Adaptation Adaptation Needs in different time scales & various scenarios : Current, 2030, 2050, 2100 Optimistic (2oC), Business as usual(4oC), and, Pessimistic (6oC) scenarios, NAP and NAMA?? Relationship between Adaptation and Mitigation ( Coastal afforestation)

INTEGRATION OF NAP WITH NATIONAL DEV (contd.) Integration of NAP with investments through ADP (across sectors) Integration of adaptation actions at different tiers: Central, meso-level, household/community level, Inter- sectoral perspective Managing vulnerability and adaptation related information Knowledge management through continued monitoring, analyses, etc. Periodic updates on residual vulnerability and Loss & Damage (L&D)

How to operationalize NAP? INSTITUTIONAL MAPPING FOR INTEGRATION OF NAP Institutional Mapping must provide answers Who does what? Which national organization monitors and evaluates (periodically)? Result-based monitoring How inter-agency coordination is ensured? What is the state of capacity of implementing bodies in different tiers? What are the technological needs towards implementing elements of NAP? Avoiding mal-adaptation by sector: Who oversees? What is the updating and feedback mechanism? How to operationalize NAP?

FINANCING ADAPTATION IN A PLANNED MANNER How big is the financial requirement? Will there be prioritization in financial mobilization? What needs to be done?

FINANCING ADAPTATION IN A PLANNED MANNER How big is the financial requirement? Will there be prioritization in financial mobilization? What needs to be done? Estimation of costs of adaptation by key sectors Prioritization of Specific adaptations Scheduling of finance for Adaptation Location specificity of Financing adaptation Sources of finance (local, international) Finance mobilization strategy

How NAP process will be managed? Management of NAP How NAP process will be managed? MOEF-led NAP Team Inter-ministerial Steering Committee Technical Advisory Committee (involving GO, CSO, Academics, ….) Sector-specific/ issue-specific TAC Sub-committees (for example, Climate modelling Sub-committee) Local, Regional, and National Consultations Draft presentation of NAP Finalization through ministerial vetting/approval

PROCESSES INVOLVING DEVELOPMENT OF NAP How to ensure participation of stakeholders at all levels? Bottom-up : Local level concerns/realities, inputs in priority setting (including gender specificity) Top-down : Key Climate Change Practitioners/ Experts Inter-sectoral: Sector-specific institutional responses, needs & priorities Political level integration: Parliamentary hearing for priority setting, institutional coordination, financing, etc. Media coverage: Involve the mass population

Preamble must highlight theory of change (Specific objectives, targets, etc.) NAP to lead to LAP Update BCCSAP ?, add costing and prioritization; institutional setting Create opportunity for capacity building of planners Added objective?: To create access to GCF Add fiduciary standard enhancement To bring synergy among various types of projects/actors NAP Team should avoid duplication of project activities/use of scarce resources Issues concerning marketing need to be highlighted

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