Annual meeting on CRTI Urban Modeling Project (CRTI RD) “Advanced Emergency Response System for CBRN Hazard Prediction and Assessment for the Urban Environment” Centre Météorologique Canadien - Dorval Août 2006

Agenda : brief summary Tuesday 22 August : AM: meteorological modeling – field studies PM: CFD modeling – dispersion modeling end of day: issues-challenges identification Wednesday 23 August : AM: coupling - validation PM: review of milestones – discussion on CRTI-2 submission Thursday 24 August : Technical exchanges – discussions….

The objective of this project is to develop and validate an integrated, state-of-the-art, high-fidelity multi-scale modeling system for the accurate and efficient prediction of urban flow and dispersion of CBRN materials. Prototype to be ready in early 2007 Development of this proposed multi-scale modeling system will provide the capability to perform real-time modeling and simulation tool to predict injuries, casualties, and contamination and to make relevant decisions (based on the strongest technical and scientific foundations) to minimize the consequences based on a pre- determined decision making framework. Our objective…

Project Partners Environment Canada / Meteorological Service of Canada –Canadian Meteorological Centre (Hogue et al. + MSC Quebec Region (Benjamin) –Atmospheric and Climate Sciences Directorate (Bélair/Mailhot et al.) DRDC Suffield (Eugene Yee et al.) University of Waterloo (F.S. Lien et al.) University of Alberta (J.D. Wilson et al.) AECL (Phil Davis et al.) Health Canada – Radiation Protection Bureau

Mesoscale Urban scale Building scale Mesoscale Urban scale Building scale Source Type Defines Flow Defines Dispersion Chemical agent Biological agent Fluid Dynamics Models Plume Dispersion Models BCs GEM/LAM “Urbanized” GEM/LAM urbanSTREAM MLPD urbanLS urbanEU urbanLS CBR releases induces impacts over many spatial scales Need multi-scale approach where flow and dispersion are performed within “nested” domains Multi-scale CBRN Hazard Prediction Model for the Urban Environment Radiological agent

Component 1: development of a “building aware” model for urban flow prediction (UrbanSTREAM) Component 2: inclusion of subgrid-scale urban parameterization in meso-scale NWP model (GEM-LAM) Component 3: coupling of microscale flow model with “urbanized” GEM-LAM. Component 4: development of a lagrangian stochastic model for prediction of urban dispersion (UrbanLS). Component 5: validation of fully coupled multi-scale modeling system for urban flow using field study verification data. Component 6 (new): in the context of PSTP, collaboration work with US NARAC center (LLNL) and development of methodologies for determination of emission source distribution (source reconstruction). PROJECT COMPONENTS

urbanSTREAM urbanGEM/LAM Component 2 Component 1 1-way interaction urbanLS urbanEU Component 4 urbanBLS urbanAEU Bayesian inference for inverse source determination Component 5 (whole system validation) Component 3 Adaptive sampling strategy PSTP supplementary funding CRTI funding Relationship between components Collaboration with NARAC, etc. Component 6 (new)

Components 1 and 4: General project status and accomplishments during the last year Urban flow model (UrbanSTREAM): ready Parallelization and optimization: work underway Being gradually implemented in CMC environment Validation with Oklahoma City database: work underway Some preliminary tests using GEM-LAM inflow conditions Urban flow model (UrbanLS): ready Parallelization and optimization: work underway Being gradually implemented in CMC environment Adaptation underway to generate concentration fields and visualisation issues Validation with Oklahoma City database: work underway

Component 2: “urbanized” version of GEM-LAM TEB in GEM-LAM: ready Satellite derived methodology to produce land-use classification: ready Cascade strategy and tests (2.5km to 1km to 250m) :work underway Anthropogenetic heat flux: work underway 3D turbulence kinetic energy: in MC-2 but work underway to include in GEM Validation with Oklahoma City database: work underway MUSE-1 (March-April 2005) and MUSE-2 (Febuary-March 2006) field studies : completed with great success. Data analysis work underway. Components 3: coupling work … underway Component 5: validation work…. underway

Project well underway and advancing well. Scientific challenges are being addressed one by one through extensive testing and validation. Implementation of prototype is done in the context of the constraints of the operational environment : very practical near-real time feasability issues need to be adressed…. Meeting at NARAC (National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center, Lawrence Livermore National Labs) on June 1-2 opens the door to collaboration and exchange on the validation of OKC cases and on issues of common interest (surface processes, coupling between met model and CFD model, etc.). Good leverage on operational issues such as trans-boundary event coordination as well as collaboration with Health Canada’s Radiological Protection Bureau (ARGOS system) Project Review Committee (PRC) held on June 8. Positive feedback from committee members. Will need to give them an update this fall. Many presentations at conferences, technical notes and some peer-reviewed articles

Project related publications and presentations on CFD and dispersion modeling: Refereed Journal Papers (published or accepted): H. Ji, F.S. Lien and E. Yee, “An Efficient Second-Order Accurate Cut-Cell Method for Solving the Variable Coefficient Poisson Equation with Jump Conditions on Irregular Domain”, International Journal for Numerical Methods in Fluids (in press, January, 2006). Refereed Journal Papers (submitted): K.J. Hsieh, F.S. Lien and E. Yee, “Numerical Modeling of Scalar Dispersion in an Urban Canopy”, submitted to Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics in May, F.S. Lien, E. Yee, H. Ji, A. Keats and K.J. Hsieh, “Progress and Challenges in the Development of Physically-Based Numerical Models for Prediction of Flow and Contaminant Dispersion in the Urban Environment”, submitted to International Journal of Computational Fluid Dynamics (Special Issue) in October A. Keats, E. Yee and F.S. Lien, “Bayesian Inference for Source Determination With Applications to a Complex Urban Environment”, submitted to Atmospheric Environment in May, Conference Papers: F.S. Lien, E. Yee and H. Ji (2005), “Modelling Wind Flow and Turbulence in Complex Urban Canopies”, 9th Annual George Mason University Conference on Atmospheric Transport and Dispersion Modelling, July 18-20, George Mason University, Fairfax, VG, USA. K.J. Hsieh, A. Keats, F.S. Lien, E. Yee (2005), “Scalar Dispersion and Inferred Source Location in an Urban Canopy”, 9th Annual George Mason University Conference on Atmospheric Transport and Dispersion Modelling, July 18-20, George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia, USA. F.S. Lien, E. Yee, H. Ji, A. Keats and K.J. Hsieh (2005), “Development of a High-Fidelity Numerical Model for Hazard Prediction in the Urban Environment” (Keynote Address), Proc. 13th Annual Conference of the CFD Society of Canada, July 31-August 3, 2005, St. John’s, Canada. H. Ji, F.S. Lien and E. Yee (2006), “Parallel Adaptive Mesh Refinement Combined With Multigrid for a Poisson Equation”, Proc. 14th Annual Conference of the CFD Society of Canada, July 16-July 18, 2006, Kingston, Ontario, Canada. A. Keats, F.S. Lien and E. Yee (2006), “Source Determination in Built-Up Environments Through Bayesian Inference With Validation Using the MUST Array and Joint Urban 2003 Tracer Experiments”, Proc. 14th Annual Conference of the CFD Society of Canada, July 16- July 18, 2006, Kingston, Ontario, Canada. F.S. Lien, E. Yee and H. Ji (2006), “Modeling Wind Flow and Turbulence in Oklahoma City”, Proc. 4th International Symposium on Computational Wind Engineering, July 16-July 19, 2006, Pacifico Yokohama, Yokohama, Japan. E. Yee, F.S. Lien, A. Keats, K.J. Hsieh and R. D’Amours (2006), “Validation of Bayesian Inference for Emission Source Distribution Retrieval Using the Joint Urban 2003 and European Tracer Experiments”, Proc. 4th International Symposium on Computational Wind Engineering, July 16-July19, 2006, Pacifico Yokohama, Yokohama, Japan.

Others F.S. Lien, E. Yee, H. Ji, A. Keats and K.J. Hsieh (2006), “Application of CFD to Security Science: Progress on the Development of a High- Fidelity Numerical Model for Hazard Prediction and Assessment in the Urban Environment”, to be published in CFD Society of Canada Bulletin #17. Refereed Journal Papers (in preparation): A. Keats, E. Yee and F.S. Lien (2006), “Efficiently Locating and Characterizing the Source of an Active Tracer Through Bayesian Inference”, to be submitted to Ecological Modelling. H. Ji, F.S. Lien and E. Yee (2006), “Parallel Adaptive Mesh Refinement Combined With Multigrid for a Poisson Equation”, to be submitted to International Journal for Numerical Methods in Fluids. H. Ji, F.S. Lien and E. Yee (2006), “A Robust and Efficient Cartesian Grid Method Combined With Adaptive Mesh Refinement for Moving Boundary Problems on Irregular Domains”, to be submitted to Journal of Computational Physics. K.J. Hsieh, F.S. Lien and E. Yee (2006), “Partially Resolved Numerical Simulation for Turbulent Flow Over an Array of Obstacles”, to be submitted to Flow, Turbulence and Combustion. E. Yee and R. D’Armours (2006), “Application of Bayesian Probability Theory to Source Inversion for European Tracer Experiment”, to be submitted to Theoretical and Applied Geophysics The Technical Cooperation Program (TTCP) E. Yee (2005) “Recent Progress on Modeling of Flows and Dispersion: From Canonical to Complex Flows”, TTCP CBR Group, Technical Panel 9, Defence Science and Technology Organization, Melbourne, Australia, 31 January – 4 February E. Yee (2005) “Probabilistic Inference: An Application to Inverse Source Function Estimation”, TTCP CBR Group, Technical Panel 9, Defence Science and Technology Organization, Melbourne, Australia, 31 January – 4 February E. Yee (2006) “Advances in Development of Emergency Response System for CBRN Prediction and Assessment in the Urban Environment”, TTCP CBR Group, Technical Panel 9, US Army Dugway Proving Ground, February E. Yee and R. D’Armours (2006) “Application of Bayesian Inference to Source Function Retrieval for European Tracer Experiment (ETEX)”, TTCP CBR Group, Technical Panel 9, US Army Dugway Proving Ground, February Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on CB Defence E. Yee (2006) “Advanced Emergency Response System for CBRN Hazard Prediction and Assessment in the Urban Environment”, International Task Force 49 Meeting (Battlespace Information Management Systems), Directorate of Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Defence, Ottawa Ontario, July 11, Other Presentations E. Yee, “A Bayesian Approach for Reconstruction of the Characteristics of a Localized Pollutant Source by Spatially Distributed Electronic Noses”, Moscow Colloquium, Science and Innovations Agency of the Russian Federation/Karpov Institute of Physical Chemistry, Moscow, June 19-21, 2006.

Publications and presentations on urban meteorological modeling Refereed Journal Papers (published or accepted): Two short papers entitled “Country Report – Urban modeling at the Meteorological Service of Canada” by Mailhot et al. and “Urban Project Report – The Montreal Urban Snow Experiments (MUSE)” by Bélair et al. have been puslished the April issue of the IAUC (International Association for Urban Climate) Newsletter. Refereed Journal Papers (submitted): A paper entitled “Methodology of urban cover classification for atmospheric modeling” (Lemonsu, Leroux, Bélair, Trudel and Mailhot) has been submitted to the journal “Remote Sensing of Environment”. Conference or workshop Papers: Four presentations related to the CRTI Project have been done at the Coastal and Mountain Lab Workshop in Vancouver (25-27 January 2005) in the session on Urban Meteorology and Impacts. Five presentations related to the CRTI Project have been done at the 39th Annual CMOS Congress (31 May-3 June 2005 in Vancouver). The presentations dealt with: 1) Parameterization of urban covers for mesoscale models (Lemonsu et al.); 2) Methodology of urban cover classification for atmospheric modeling (Lemonsu et al.); 3) Numerical simulations of the urban boundary layer observed during Joint Urban 2003 (Pelletier et al.); 4) Overview of the 2005 Montreal Urban Snow Experiment (MUSE-2005) (Benjamin et al.); 5) Computational modeling of 3D turbulent flows with MC2 (Pelletier et al.). A presentation has been done at the RMetS 2005 Conference (11-16 September 2005 in Exeter UK): Urban modelling at the Meteorological Service of Canada (Lemonsu et al.). Five presentations related to the CRTI Project have been done at the 89th AMS Annual Meeting (29 Jan-2 Feb 2006 in Atlanta, GA), in the “6th Symposium on the Urban Environment” dealing with: 1) An overview of urban modeling at the Meteorological Service of Canada (Mailhot et al.); 2) Application of meso-scale atmospheric modeling to the comparison of urban processes above North-American and European cities (Lemonsu et al.); 3) Methodology of urban cover classification for atmospheric modeling (Lemonsu et al.); 4) Numerical simulations of the urban boundary layer observed during Joint Urban 2003 (Mailhot et al.); 5) Preliminary results of the 2005 Montreal Urban Snow Experiment (MUSE-2005) (Benjamin et al.).

One presentation at the 17th Symposium on Boundary Layers and Turbulence (22-26 May 2006 in San Diego CA) dealing with Numerical simulations of the urban boundary layer observed during Joint Urban 2003 (Mailhot et al.). Four abstracts related to the CRTI Project have been submitted for presentation at the coming 6th International Conference on Urban Climate (12-16 June 2006 in Goteborg, Sweden) dealing with: 1) An overview of urban modeling at the Meteorological Service of Canada (Mailhot et al.); 2) Description of the new Canadian urban modeling system (Lemonsu et al.); 3) Application of the new Canadian urban modeling system to a North American city (Lemonsu et al.); 4) Preliminary results of the 2005 Montreal Urban Snow Experiment (MUSE-2005) (Benjamin et al.). Two extended abstracts (for papers 1 and 4) have been written and submitted for distribution at the Conference. An internal seminar has been given on 24 February 2006 by J. Mailhot in the RPN/CMC series describing the various components of the CRTI project (“Development of a modeling system at the urban scale”). a presentation will be given by Richard Hogue at the CRTI annual meeting (12-15 June 2006). Refereed Journal Papers (in preparation): Lemonsu et al., the paper “Methodology of urban cover classification for atmospheric modeling” will be submitted this summer to the Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climate. Lemonsu et al., general article on MUSE-2005 including preliminary data analysis. Will be submitted in early fall. Journal to be determined. Chagnon et al., article on the analysis of energy budgets during MUSE-1 (2005) campaign. Will be submitted in early fall. Journal to be determined. Lemonsu et al., article on the modeling work on JU2003 (Oklahoma City dataset). Will be submitted in early Journal to be determined. Lemonsu et al., article on the modeling work with TEB for MUSE field studies. To be submitted in early Journal to be determined. Bélair et al. article on the coupling issues between meso-scale meteorological models and CFD micro scale flow models in the urban environment. Will be submitted in early Journal to be determined.

CRTI TA Information Management and Decision Support System for R/N (ARGOS) CRTI RD Real-Time Determination of Area of Influence of CBRN Releases CRTI TD CHIRP – Canadian Health Integrated Response Platform CRTI RD Experimental Characterization of Risk for Radiological Dispersion Devices (RDDs) CRTI RTD Experimental and Theoretical Development of a Resuspension Database to Assist Decision Makers during an RDD Event. And, since Monday June 5 following kick-off meeting in Vancouver: CRTI TD Unified Interoperability Solution set to Support CONOPS Framework Development -Municipal-Provincial-Federal Collaboration to CBRN Response : To provide dispersion scenarios to the project using the capacity developped in 0093… Linkages with many CRTI projects has continued…

Linking to the Environmental Emergency (EE) community through: CRTI project TD (inoperability framework in the Vancouver area) meeting in early 2007 with some representatives of 1st responder community… Project generates significant leverage on scientific issues within NWP development at MSC: high resolution meso-scale modeling surface processes at high resolution urban and land-use characterization Important to start working on CRTI-2 follow-up project : application of prototype to all main Canadian cities obtain “shape files” of building topography interact with appropriate responders and plan for tests and exercises, improvement to the system and … should consider a plan for a tracer experiment in a Canadian city… to further validate the system etc.

Meeting objectives / challenges…. Status report of each project partners Coupling issues Validation issues Converge towards the finalization of the prototype in the context of an operational environment Plan for CRTI-2 and exchanges/collaborations with other groups

Scientific validity Demonstrated added value Feasiblity Maintainability Technological transfer Optimisation Scenario testing Connectivity with other systems Operational practical issues Visualisation Etc…

SCHEDULE / MILESTONE REVIEW: General milestones MilestoneEventCompletion Date 1Project Approval 2003 April 2Project Charter Approved 2003 July 3RFP Release 2003 August 4Contract Award 2003 September 5Hire EC-CMC RES 2003 November 6Hire EC-CMC PDF 2003 November 7Development and implementation of high-resolution microscale urban flow model 2004 October 8Development and implementation of microscale urban flow model using distributed drag force approach for prediction of spatially-averaged time mean wind and turbulence 2005 June 9Development, implementation, and coupling of microscale Lagrangian Stochastic model with urban microscale flow model for prediction of short-range dispersion 2005 June 10Development and implementation of urban parameterizations for mesoscale model (GEM-GEM LAM) 2005 June

11Coupling of urban microscale flow models with “urbanized” mesoscale flow model 2006 November (vs June 06) 12Development and implementation of multiscale Lagrangian Stochastic model prediction of atmospheric (and, urban) dispersion at all ranges 2006 October (vs June 06) 13Full integration of multiscale Lagrangian Stochastic model with coupled urban microscale and “urbanized” mesoscale model 2006 December (vs August 06) 14QA/QC data from Montreal Urban Snow Experiments (MUSE), and make data available to US collaborators through password protected website 2007 March (new) 15Development of adjoint of Eulerian and Lagrangian dispersion models required for rapid computation of likelihood function 2006 December (new) 16Verification and Validation of fully integrated flow and dispersion modelling system 2007 March 17Development of inverse source determination methodology based on Bayesian inference, and implementation of Monte Carlo sampling schemes required to extract information from posterior distribution of source parameters 2007 June (new) 18Verification and validation of inverse source determination methodology using available concentration data sets (e.g., JU2003, ETEX, Project Prairie Grass, Sensor data fusion experiment at Dugway Proving Grounds, etc.) March (new) 19Project Complete (Close Project)2008 April (vs April 07)