World Population Growth Rate: 1950-2050 U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base

Number of children per woman from peak year to present Too Few Babies? Number of children per woman from peak year to present Replacement rate Source: U.N. Population Division

Countries with Falling Population Hungary Moldova Bulgaria Belarus Estonia Russian Federation Georgia Czech Republic Latvia Poland Armenia Germany Romania Japan Lithuania Croatia Ukraine Slovenia

Countries with Population beginning to decline 2010-2030 Italy Macedonia Slovakia Spain Bosnia Taiwan Greece South Korea Serbia Austria Portugal Finland Cuba China

Fertility Rates Dropping Over Time: Average Number of Children Born per Woman

Life Expectancy at Birth

Average Retirement Age of Men (and number of years in retirement as of 2010)

65+ population as % population aged 20+

Public Old-Age Benefits Pensions and Health (% GDP)

% Change in Population, 2005-50

Government Pensions as % of After-Tax Income; Households Age 60+

Public Debt/GDP 2011—Rapidly Rising Who Is Deepest in the Hole? UK 83% US 100% (rising very fast) France 84% Germany 79% Canada 70% (falling) Italy 120% Japan 230% Australia 17% Sweden 41% (falling)

Median Age of Population Country 1950 2005 2050 China 23.9 32.5 45.0 Czech Republic 32.7 38.9 55.0 Germany 27.3 42.1 51.8 India 21.3 23.8 38.6 Iraq 20.1 18.9 31.1 Japan 22.3 42.9 56.2 Kenya 20.0 18.1 27.0 Uganda 18.2 15.3 23.3 U.S. 30.0 36.0 41.1

Labor Supply and Taxes: 1970-74 & 1993-96 (work by Ed Prescott, Nobel Prize, Economics, 2004) Country Tax rate Hours of Labor per Week per Adult 1970-74 1993-96 Germany 0.52 0.59 24.6 19.3 France 0.49 24.4 17.5 Italy 0.41 0.64 19.2 16.5 Canada 0.44 22.2 22.9 U.K. 0.45 25.9 22.8 Japan 0.25 0.37 29.8 27.0 U.S. 0.40 23.5

Europe Lacks Entrepreneurial Culture Edmund S. Phelps, Nobel Prize, Economics: “The economic systems in Europe are not well structured for high performance…. The root problem is a dearth of economic dynamism.” Compared to the U.S., Canada and U.K., Europeans do not want challenging jobs or responsibility. The concern is about protecting what exists (entitlements). European companies and economies lack “dynamism” and resist entrepreneurial activity.

Europe Withering Away? Esko Aho, former Prime Minister of Finland, in a report to the European Commission in 2006: Europe is “living a moderately comfortable life on slowly declining capital. This society, averse to risk and reluctant to change, is in itself alarming, but it is also unsustainable in the face of rising competition from other parts of the world.”

While in China… “China has become a nation of opportunity seekers, trusting that any problem can be solved along the way. The competitive advantage of today’s China, as a nation and as a people, is the willingness to adapt to what is necessary and beneficial.” John Naisbitt, Global Trends Forecaster

Next Door in Russia Population 142,000,000 Population is falling about 1 million per year; low birth rate; life expectancy is falling (disease, alcoholism); aging population Russia leased 1 million hectares of forest land in Siberia to China in 2006 in “Joint Venture.” Opened oil pipeline to China in 2010 for $25 billion “loan.” What is economic policy in Russia?

Health in Russia Is Very Poor

Meng Dani lives here: “There is so much land, and so little of it is used.” In her hometown in Hailar, Inner Mongolia, “little land, a lot of people, and no work.”

% Average Annual Change Real GDP Per Capita

Nations Rise and Fall and Rise