David Norris, Director of Opportunity Mapping Kip Holley, Research Associate Opportunity and the Detroit Metropolitan Region Mapping Trends and Existing Conditions in Detroit and the Surrounding Region to Catalyze Opportunity Initiatives

Maps and Indexes – Opportunity across the Region – Opportunity within Detroit – Assets and Opportunity within Detroit – Regional Trends Analysis – Race and Opportunity – Demographics of Change – Dynamics of Change – Diversity, Opportunity, and Achievement

Maps and Indexes

4 Education Economy & EmploymentNeighborhood  Childhood Poverty (EDU1)  High School Dropout Rate(EDU2)  Persons No High School Diploma, Unemployed (EDU3)  High school Completion(EDU4)  Reading Score (EDU5)  Math Score(EDU6)  Student Poverty(EDU7)  Public Assistance Rate(EE1)  Median Household Income(EE2)  Unemployment Rate (EE3)  Job Change (EE4)  Vacant Property (N1)  Property Values (N2)  Homeownership rates (N3)  Poverty Rates (N4)  Percentage Population change (N5) This process resulted in a set of opportunity indicators representing three key elements of neighborhood opportunity: Education, Economy & Employment, and Neighborhood.

5 This map shows opportunity relative to the census tracts within the 5 counties of the Detroit Metropolitan Region. Data representing: Education, Economy & Employment, and Neighborhood were compiled into an index to represent access to opportunity. The dark color represents highest opportunity while the lightest color represents lowest opportunity. Neighborhood Opportunity Index (relative to Regional averages)

6 Neighborhood Opportunity Index (relative to City averages)

In response from advisory committee feedback, this map: Highlights the opportunity landscape in Detroit Detroit is not monolithic Contains indicators that correspond with crucial programs Where are investments working? Where does new investment need to occur?

Workforce Development & Job Creation Early Child Development City systems & Opportunity  Employment Status  Adult Education Attainment  Industry by Occupation: Number of jobs in fastest growing sectors of the region [90 percentile of job growth over past 5 years]  Employment Sector  Small Business Ownership  Reading Score  Math Score  Infant Mortality  Proximity to Community Centers  Proximity to Parks  Juvenile Crime Rate  Free-reduced Lunch  Public Transit Proximity  Means of Transportation to work  Automobile Access  Mean Commute Time This process resulted in a set of opportunity indicators representing three key elements of neighborhood opportunity: Workforce Development & Job creation, Early Child Development, and City systems & Opportunity

9 This map shows assets and opportunity relative to the census tracts within City of Detroit. Data representing Workforce Development & Job creation, Early Child Development, and City systems & Opportunity was compiled into an index to represent access to asset and opportunity. The dark color represents the highest opportunity while the light color represents the lowest opportunity. Detroit Assets & Opportunity Index (relative to City averages)

Education Economy & EmploymentNeighborhood  Childhood Poverty  High School Dropout Rate  Persons No High School Diploma, Unemployed  High school Completion  Reading Score  Math Score  Student Poverty  Public Assistance Rate  Median Household Income  Unemployment Rate  Job Change  Vacant Property  Property Values  Homeownership rates  Poverty Rates  Percentage Population change This process resulted in a set of opportunity indicators representing how three key elements of neighborhood opportunity have been changed: Education, Economy & Employment, and Neighborhood.

11 This map shows opportunity change relative to the census tracts within the 5 counties of the Detroit Metropolitan Region. Data representing Education, Economy & Employment, and Neighborhood was compiled into an index to represent access to opportunity from 2000 to Blue represents the positive change while red represents the negative change. Neighborhood Trends Index (relative to Regional averages)

12 Spotting Trends: Where are the “Hotspots”?

13 This map shows opportunity change relative to the census tracts within the 5 counties of the Detroit Metropolitan Region. Data representing Education, Economy & Employment, and Neighborhood was compiled into an index to represent access to opportunity from 2000 to Blue represents the positive change while red represents the negative change. Neighborhood Trends Index (relative to Regional averages) Detroit Region Opportunity Index

14 This map shows opportunity change relative to the census tracts within the 5 counties of the Detroit Metropolitan Region. Data representing Education, Economy & Employment, and Neighborhood was compiled into an index to represent access to opportunity from 2000 to Blue represents the positive change while red represents the negative change. Neighborhood Trends Index (relative to Regional averages) Detroit Region Opportunity Index

15 This map shows opportunity change relative to the census tracts within the 5 counties of the Detroit Metropolitan Region. Data representing Education, Economy & Employment, and Neighborhood was compiled into an index to represent access to opportunity from 2000 to Blue represents the positive change while red represents the negative change. Neighborhood Trends Index (relative to Regional averages) Detroit Region Opportunity Index Scores- 2000

16 This map shows opportunity change relative to the census tracts within the 5 counties of the Detroit Metropolitan Region. Data representing Education, Economy & Employment, and Neighborhood was compiled into an index to represent access to opportunity from 2000 to Blue represents the positive change while red represents the negative change. Neighborhood Trends Index (relative to Regional averages) Detroit Region Opportunity Index Scores- 2010

17 This map shows opportunity change relative to the census tracts within the 5 counties of the Detroit Metropolitan Region. Data representing Education, Economy & Employment, and Neighborhood was compiled into an index to represent access to opportunity from 2000 to Blue represents the positive change while red represents the negative change. Neighborhood Trends Index (relative to Regional averages) Detroit Region Opportunity Index Change – 2000 to 2010

18 This map shows opportunity change relative to the census tracts within the 5 counties of the Detroit Metropolitan Region. Data representing Education, Economy & Employment, and Neighborhood was compiled into an index to represent access to opportunity from 2000 to Blue represents the positive change while red represents the negative change. Neighborhood Trends Index (relative to Regional averages) Detroit Region Opportunity Index Change – Patterns?

19 This map shows opportunity change relative to the census tracts within the 5 counties of the Detroit Metropolitan Region. Data representing Education, Economy & Employment, and Neighborhood was compiled into an index to represent access to opportunity from 2000 to Blue represents the positive change while red represents the negative change. Neighborhood Trends Index (relative to Regional averages) Detroit Region Opportunity Index Change – Clusters

20 This map shows opportunity change relative to the census tracts within the 5 counties of the Detroit Metropolitan Region. Data representing Education, Economy & Employment, and Neighborhood was compiled into an index to represent access to opportunity from 2000 to Blue represents the positive change while red represents the negative change. Neighborhood Trends Index (relative to Regional averages) Statistically Significant Change, 2000 to 2010

21 This map shows opportunity change relative to the census tracts within the 5 counties of the Detroit Metropolitan Region. Data representing Education, Economy & Employment, and Neighborhood was compiled into an index to represent access to opportunity from 2000 to Blue represents the positive change while red represents the negative change. Neighborhood Trends Index (relative to Regional averages)

22 Where have investments been made relative to neighborhood trends?

Analysis

24 What about Race relative to Opportunity?

25 Who lives in areas that are improving or declining?

26 Education Economy & Employment NeighborhoodComprehensive High Cluster (Positive Change) High Outlier ( High Surrounded by Low) Low Outlier ( Low Surrounded by High) Low Cluster (Negative Change) What’s changing in improving or declining areas?

27 EDU1EDU2EDU3EDU4EDU5EDU6EDU7 Education High Cluster (Positive Change) High Outlier ( High Surrounded by Low) Low Outlier ( Low Surrounded by High) Low Cluster (Negative Change) What's changing in improving and declining areas? Education Education  Childhood Poverty (EDU1)  High School Dropout Rate(EDU2)  Persons No High School Diploma, Unemployed (EDU3)  High school Completion(EDU4)  Reading Score (EDU5)  Math Score(EDU6)  Student Poverty(EDU7)

28 EE1EE2EE3EE4 Economy & Employment High Cluster (Positive Change) High Outlier ( High Surrounded by Low) Low Outlier ( Low Surrounded by High) Low Cluster (Negative Change) What's changing in improving and declining areas? Economy & Employment Economy & Employment  Public Assistance Rate(EE1)  Median Household Income(EE2)  Unemployment Rate (EE3)  Job Change (EE4)

29 N1N2N3N4N5Neighborhood High Cluster (Positive Change) High Outlier ( High Surrounded by Low) Low Outlier ( Low Surrounded by High) Low Cluster (Negative Change) What's changing in improving and declining areas? Neighborhood Neighborhood  Vacant Property (N1)  Property Values (N2)  Homeownership rates (N3)  Poverty Rates (N4)  Percentage Population change (N5)

30 Are there diverse areas of opportunity?

31 Where do schools out- perform their surrounding neighborhood(s)? Methodology Note: Each tract was assigned a value based on the School District whose centroids are within the tract’s boundaries.

More detailed “deep dive” into the data for individual hot spot areas Food access in the Detroit area: food deserts, food swamps

Key Lessons

Detroit is not “monolithic” in terms of opportunity Shared fates writ large: Disinvestment is not just a “Detroit problem” Shared fates writ small: Evidence in trend data of neighborhood effects, linked to investment