Future Energy Scenarios 2015 Supply Marcus Stewart Demand and Supply Manager.

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Presentation transcript:

Future Energy Scenarios 2015 Supply Marcus Stewart Demand and Supply Manager

Changes from last year

The generation mix is shifting

Narrow margins set to continue, tools are in place

Coal declines due to environmental legislation * * CCS in Gone Green, conventional coal in No Progression

Existing nuclear declines, new plants post 2024

Gas important part of the mix but economics look challenging…

Wind capacity to at least double by 2030

Significant solar growth

High solar impacts system operability Consumer Power Transmission demand (GW) Time Summer minimum demand

GB is a net electricity importer in three of the four scenarios 2030 Capacity 11GW – 18GW Annual interconnector flows

Activity in the last 12 months

Sufficient gas supplies but uncertainty on the source Consumer Power Slow Progression

Energy supply summary GB is a net importer of electricity in three of four scenarios. Electricity margins remain narrow for this winter, but the tools are in place to manage, the 2018/19 Capacity Market is designed to maintain standard. Large increase in distributed generation will change the way the network is operated. Sufficient gas supplies across all scenarios but with uncertainty on the source.