What’s Completion Got to Do With It? Unpacking the Value of Student Short-Term Course-Taking LearningWorks & RP Group Webinar | October 31, 2012

Session Outcomes Recognize how student course-taking behaviors relate to completion and success Understand how this analysis relates in a specific college context Know about resources to support a course-taking analysis and discussions at your own institution NOTE: Please ask questions throughout the presentation by typing into the chat window on the left 11:00-11:02 Kathy kicks off What’s Completion Got to Do with It? | October 2012

The perfect storm of accountability and budget cuts WHY THE FOCUS ON COMPLETION? The perfect storm of accountability and budget cuts 10 minute segment What’s Completion Got to Do with It? | October 2012

Student Success Act Places an emphasis on completion through: Placed an emphasis on completion through: Setting enrollment priorities around pathways that lead to degrees, certificates and transfer Prioritizing structures that encourage students onto a completion pathway (e.g., educational plans, programs of study, basic skills, and mandatory assessment) Creating a public scorecard that will bring completion to the forefront 11:02-11:04 What’s Completion Got to Do with It? | October 2012

The Budget Crisis Colleges are reviewing data on what departments, programs and services to keep or cut. Some are pre-emptively following the Task Force direction We are getting public pressure to justify our resource allocation Our existing data primarily focuses on measures like completion and retention—most colleges don’t have other success measures available 11:04-11:06 What’s Completion Got to Do with It? | October 2012

What Gets Lost in the Completion Discussion? Not all of our students are seeking completion Particularly in CTE, students may go get jobs without completing certificates Our completion rates are not equitable If we have to do more with less and completion is the measure, will our more vulnerable students be forced out? The journey to completion is a very long one We need to understand what happens along the way to figure out where to focus our resources 11:06-11:08 What’s Completion Got to Do with It? | October 2012

Share Your Story Weigh in by clicking on checkbox icon in the window on the left and selecting yes or no: is your college using completion of degrees, certificates, or transfer to prioritize offerings? 11:08-11:10 What's Completion Got to Do with It? | October 2012

What student course-taking behaviors can tell us How else can we understand success? What student course-taking behaviors can tell us 30 minute segment What's Completion Got to Do with It? | October 2012

Peter Bahr’s Cluster Analysis 165,921 first-time students who enrolled in at least one credit or noncredit community college course in fall 2001 Followed course-taking patters over 7 years Did NOT use factors such as students’ race/ ethnicity, status as a credit/noncredit student or stated goal 11:10-11:12 – include a VERY high level overview of what cluster analysis is What’s Completion Got to Do with It? | October 2012

Key Definitions Completion First Time Student Associate’s degree Certificate Transfer First Time Student Had not previously attended college Were not co-enrolled in high school or a four-year institution Accounted for 70% of students who entered system in fall 2001 and attempted four-fifths of units in 2001- 2002 11:12-11:13 What’s Completion Got to Do with It? | October 2012

The Clusters Completion-Directed Pathways Non-Completion Pathways Completion Likely (2 subgroups) Completion Unlikely CTE Non-Completion Pathways Skills-Builders Noncredit 11:13-11:15 – Very quick overview, detail below What's Completion Got to Do with It? | October 2012

Completion-Likely Continuum Students Most Likely to Complete Enroll full time, stay about 6 years Attempt an average of 123 credits in transferrable courses Pass 73% of courses and have high completion rates (68%) Students Somewhat Likely to Complete Enroll full time, stay about 4 years Attempt 66 transferrable credits, but fewer math, physical & life sciences Pass 73% of courses but have low completion rates (31%) 11:15-11:17 What’s Completion Got to Do with It? | October 2012

students take 65-125 units four to six years to complete and amass Our successful students take four to six years to complete and amass 65-125 units 11:17-11:18

Completion Directed Completion Unlikely Enroll part time, attend intermittently, stay about 2 years Attempt 16 transferrable credits, with more CTE Pass 26% of courses and have very low completion rates (10%) Career Technical Education Students Enroll full time, stay about 5 years Attempt 82 units in commercial services, engineering and industrial technologies, health fields and public and protective services Pass 80% of courses but have low completion rates (35%) 11:18-11:20 What’s Completion Got to Do with It? | October 2012

more likely to African American, Latino and Native American students are more likely to be in our less-successful clusters 11:20-11:21

Non-Completion Pathways Skills-Builder Students Take one course a year for two years, on average Attempt 7 credits in transferrable humanities and CTE, especially engineering and industrial technologies Pass 94% of courses but have very low completion rates (9%) Noncredit Students Enroll in about three courses a year for five years Take ESL, short-term vocational programs, health and safety education and programs for older adults Course completion data missing 11:21-11:23 What’s Completion Got to Do with It? | October 2012

Comparison of Pass and Completion Rates Among Clusters 11:23-11:24 What’s Completion Got to Do with It? | October 2012

Statewide Averages Bahr found that averages varied by college First-Time Student Types, Based on Head Count Bahr found that averages varied by college 11:24-11:25 Ask the question first, then reveal the pie chart, then the caveat on variation by college What’s Completion Got to Do with It? | October 2012

What About Those Non-Completers? A preliminary analysis of UI wage data found wage increases for skills-builder students. The CTE Employment Outcome survey found significant wage gains for non-completers (26% increase in hourly wage for non- completers; 39% for completers). There are pathways through our colleges that we aren’t documenting or measuring. 11:25-11:27 tell the dirt pathways story What’s Completion Got to Do with It? | October 2012

job training and may erroneously treat Our current measures don’t capture job training and may erroneously treat a third of our students as failures 11:27-11:28

Bringing Bahr’s Analysis Home You can download a summary of Bahr’s study from the RP Group or LearningWorks sites You can download instructions to replicate this study locally, using a guide that also includes discussion questions The RP Group is offering technical support on implementing the study Bahr is conducting a detailed wage analysis for non-completers, including mapping common course-taking pathways—watch for results in spring 2013 11:28-11:30 What's Completion Got to Do with It? | October 2012

Share Your Story Weigh in by clicking on checkbox icon in the window on the left and selecting yes or no: Is your college tracking wage outcomes as a way to measure success? Share by typing into the chat window on the left: How do you think changes your college is making to enrollment or course- scheduling will affect skills-builder and noncredit students? 11:30-11:35 What's Completion Got to Do with It? | October 2012

Applying Bahr’s Findings to Cabrillo College From the state to the local Applying Bahr’s Findings to Cabrillo College Hand the baton to Rock-expected timeframe of 15 minutes (11:35-11:57) What's Completion Got to Do with It? | October 2012

$1,000,000,000 2,700 hours

Stewardship

Completer/Leaver Survey Started in 2000 Survey ~ 1 year after students either Complete complete a certificate or degree Leave have completed at least 10 units in a CTE program and don’t enroll the following year Response rate ~50%

Completers vs Leavers Who are the real winners?

2006-2010 Completer/Leaver Survey

2006-2010 Completer/Leaver Survey

2006-2010 Completer/Leaver Survey

2006-2010 Completer/Leaver Survey

Leavers 11 Completers 9

2006-2010 Completer/Leaver Survey

2006-2010 Completer/Leaver Survey

Leavers 11 Completers 9

2006-2010 Completer/Leaver Survey

Dental Hygiene Persistence – At what point do leavers leave? Units Completed Completer Leaver <=3   2 <=25 1 <=30 <=35 <=45 >45 34 Persistence – At what point do leavers leave?

Construction & Energy Management Units Completed Completer Leaver <=3   167 <=9 135 <=15 56 <=25 1 26 <=30 5 10 <=40 14 6 <=35 >45 <=45 2 68% leave after completing <= 9 units

Classroom Survey What are students’ intentions? Motivation for taking the class? Academic goal? What would success look like? All CTE classes first half of semester

What is your current academic goal? Not really sure at this point 168 8% Complete this course - no plans beyond that 64 3% Complete a few courses but no plans beyond that 98 4% Complete 1 or more skills certificates 202 9% Complete a certificate of achievement 223 10% Complete an associate degree 809 36% Transfer to a 4-yr. school 637 29% No Reponse 23 1% 2,224 1 to a few courses 7% Certificate, degree or transfer 84%

What is the main reason you are taking this class? For personal interest/self-enrichment 178 8% Prepare for a career or a career in another field 1,199 54% Acquire skills required in existing job 216 10% Prepare for career advancement 378 17% Other career related reasons 84 4% Other 46 2% To transfer 122 5% 2,223 84% Career Related

Construction & Energy Management Academic Goal Not really sure at this point 14 7% Complete this course - no plans beyond that 8 4% Complete a few courses but no plans beyond that 21 11% Complete 1 or more skills certificates 40 21% Complete a certificate of achievement Complete an associate degree 46 25% Transfer to a 4-yr. school 37 20% 15% have a goal of taking no more than 1 to a few classes 68% leave after completing 9 or fewer units

What have we learned? Leavers are not losers We can do better with 10 or more units we may need to align our certificates with what the labor market says is good enough We can do better Large #s of students who desire certificates or degrees aren’t succeeding Data is critical for effective stewardship

Find Out More Summary of the Bahr Study & Implementation Guide http://www.rpgroup.org/projects/completion Terrence Willett, Course-taking Analysis Support twillett@rpgroup.org Kathy Booth, Statewide Success Conversations kbooth@rpgroup.org Rock Pfotenhauer, Cabrillo’s Data Collection Efforts rock@cabrillo.edu