Surviving 2010…. AND BEYOND Jay W. Goff Missouri S&T MACRAO, Lake Ozark, Missouri October 27, 2008

Record Classes Now….Later?

Source: WICHE 2003

The External Environment in which Colleges and Universities Operate is Changing Quickly Dramatic changes in student markets. Public expectations for a wide variety of high quality student services. Greater needs for an institution-wide understanding of how to best react to the emerging student trends, needs and markets.

NATIONAL Shift Impacts on Higher Education 1.Nationally, in the number of high school graduates will begin a gradual decline. 2.The proportion of minority students is increasing and will account for about half of school enrollments within the next decade. 3.High school graduates in the future will include higher percentages from families with low incomes. Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates by State, Income, and Race/Ethnicity, WICHE 2008.

What is SEM? Strategic Enrollment Management (SEM) is defined as “a comprehensive process designed to help an institution achieve and maintain the optimum recruitment, retention, and graduation rates of students where ‘optimum’ is designed within the academic context of the institution. As such, SEM is an institution-wide process that embraces virtually every aspect of an institution’s function and culture.” Michael Dolence, AACRAO SEM 2001 Research Recruitment Retention

Today’s Enrollment Manager “Successful senior enrollment managers have to operate simultaneously on multiple levels. They need to be up to date, even on the cutting edge of technology, marketing, recruitment, the latest campus practices to enhance student persistence, and financial aid practices.” SOURCE: THE ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT REVIEW Volume 23, Issue 1 Fall, 2007, Editor: Don Hossler Associate Editors: Larry Hoezee and Dan Rogalski

Hossler continued “(Enrollment Managers) need to be able to guide and use research to inform institutional practices and strategies. Successful enrollment managers need to be good leaders, managers, and strategic thinkers. They have to have a thorough understanding of the institutions where they work and a realistic assessment of the competitive position in which it resides and the niche within which it can realistically aspire to compete. Furthermore, to be effective, enrollment managers must also have a sense of how public, societal, and competitive forces are likely to move enrollment- related policies and practices in the future.” SOURCE: THE ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT REVIEW Volume 23, Issue 1 Fall, 2007, Editor: Don Hossler Associate Editors: Larry Hoezee and Dan Rogalski

What is included in a SEM Plan? 1.Strategic Framework: Mission, Values, Vision 2.Overview of Strategic Plan Goals & Institutional Capacity 3.Environmental Scan: Market Trends & Competition Analysis 4.Evaluation and Assessment of Position in Market 5.Enrollment Goals, Objectives, & Assessment Criteria 6.Marketing and Communication Plan 7.Recruitment Plan 8.Retention Plan 9.Student Aid and Scholarship Funding 10.Staff Development and Training 11.Student/Customer Service Philosophy 12.Process Improvements and Technology System Enhancements 13.Internal Communication and Data Sharing Plan 14.Campus wide Coordination of Enrollment Activities

SEM DATA RESOURCES Missouri Resources

“Missouri S&T will better define the university as a leading technological research university. We believe the new name will help to differentiate this university in a highly competitive university market and provide a national competitive advantage.” Dr. John F. Carney, III Missouri S&T Chancellor

The National Picture

Over 4200 Colleges & Universities: Heavy Competition for Students Number of Colleges and Universities SOURCE: U.S. Education Department Section: The Almanac, Volume 54, Issue 1, Page 8

Shifting Student Populations “The demographic shifts we are beginning to experience are largely the result of welcome advances in technology and public health that have extended life expectancy, improved living standards, and reduced population growth.” SOURCE: Jane Sneddon Little and Robert K. Triest. (2001) SEISMIC SHIFTS: THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE.

College Board, 2007

Undergraduate Enrollment by Attendance Status Source: U.S. Department of Education College Board, 2007

SOURCE: US Dept. of Education 2005

SOURCE: WICHE, 2003, Knocking At College’s Door.

Constant Growth in One Demographic Market: Adults Over 60 SOURCE: US Census Bureau

College Board, 2007

SOURCE: WICHE 2008

Female Enrollments Exceed 57% of All College Students SOURCE: NCES, The Condition of Education 2006, pg. 36

52.8% Missouri’s College-Going Rates of High School Graduates - Directly from HS

The Impact of Demographic Changes on Higher Education Some Institutions will: Expand their enrollments. Enroll student bodies that are less academically prepared. See shrinking enrollments. Need to expand their recruitment strategies and redefine the target populations. Have racial and ethnic composition of students may be markedly different from current classes. SOURCE: College Board. (2005). “The Impact of Demographic Changes on Higher Education”

Labor Demand vs. Student Interests Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics,

DATA SOURCE: CIRP Ongoing interest declines in key fields Changes in Intended Major to CHART SOURCE: College Board, 2007

Student Interest Trends in Engineering (<5%)

Fall 2008 Total Students

HIGHEST ADVANCED DEGREE ATTAINED: Percentage of 1992 – 93 bachelor ’ s degree recipients who had earned an advanced degree by 2003, by bachelor ’ s degree field of study and highest degree attained # Rounds to zero. NOTE: Master ’ s degrees include students who earned a post-master ’ s certificate. First-professional programs include Chiropractic (D.C. or D.C.M.), Pharmacy (Depart), Dentistry (D.D.S. or D.M.D.), Podiatry (Pod.D. or D.P.), Medicine (M.D.), Veterinary Medicine (D.V.M.), Optometry (O.D.), Law (L.L.B. or J.D.), Osteopathic Medicine (D.O.), or Theology (M.Div., M.H.L., or B.D.). Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding. SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1993/03 Baccalaureate and Beyond Longitudinal Study (B&B:93/03), previously unpublished tabulation (September 2005).

Top Twenty Graduate Degrees Searched for on gradschools.com since History 2.Physical Therapy 3.Journalism Communications 4.Social Work 5.Fashion & Textile Design 6.Clinical Psychology 7.Law 8.Architecture 9.Biology 10.Creative Writing 11. Physician Assistant 12. Sports Administration 13. MBA 14. Fine Arts 15. International Relations 16. Art Therapy 17. Counseling & Mental Health Therapy 18. Public Health 19. Educational & School Counseling 20. School Psychology

HOMESCHOOLED STUDENTS: Number and distribution of school-age children who were homeschooled, by amount of time spent in schools: 1999 and 2003 NOTE: Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding. Homeschooled children are those ages 5 – 17 educated by their parents full or part time who are in a grade equivalent to kindergarten through 12th grade. Excludes students who were enrolled in public or private school more than 25 hours per week and students who were homeschooled only because of temporary illness. SOURCE: Princiotta, D., Bielick, S., Van Brunt, A., and Chapman, C. (2005). Homeschooling in the United States: 2003 (NCES 2005 – 101), table 1. Data from U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Parent Survey of the National Household Education Surveys Program (NHES), 1999 and Parent and Family Involvement in Education Survey of the NHES, 2003.

PARTICIPATION IN REMEDIAL EDUCATION: Percentage of entering freshmen at degree-granting institutions who enrolled in remedial courses, by type of institution and subject area: Fall 2000 NOTE: Data reported for fall 2000 are based on Title IV degree-granting institutions that enrolled freshmen in The categories used for analyzing these data include public 2- year, private 2-year, public 4-year, and private 4-year institutions. Data from private not-for-profit and for-profit institutions are reported together because there are too few private for-profit institutions in the sample to report them separately. The estimates in this indicator differ from those in indicator 18 because the populations differ. This indicator deals with entering freshmen of all ages in 2000 while indicator 18 examines a cohort ( th-graders who enrolled in postsecondary education). SOURCE: Parsad, B., and Lewis, L. (2003). Remedial Education at Degree-Granting Postsecondary Institutions in Fall 2000 (NCES 2004 – 010), table 4. Data from U.S. Department of Education, NCES, Postsecondary Education Quick Information System (PEQIS), “ Survey on Remedial Education in Higher Education Institutions, ” fall 2000.

Student Success Trends ACT, 2007

Financial considerations the most common reason for leaving college SOURCE: ELS:2002 “A First Look at the Initial Postsecondary Experiences of the High School Sophomore Class of 2002 (National Center for Education Statistics)

Average Annual Wages: Missouri, SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. $29,000 $30,000 $31,000 $32,000 $33,000 $34,000 $35, SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

COLLEGE COST COMPARISON SOURCE: The College Board 2006, MAP: TIME, November 6, 2006

College Costs and Disposable Per Capita Income, to Source:The College Board

Percent For Whom Financing was a Major Concern to (Selected Years) Source: CIRP College Board, 2007

Measuring Up Report Cards

Missouri’s FTC FTE Freshmen Trends year Colleges28,08532,696 4-year Private6,7619,375 4-year Public19,26517,862

Projected State and Local Budget Surplus (Gap) as a Percent of Revenues, 2013 Source: NCHEMS; Don Boyd (Rockefeller Institute of Government), 2005 Utah Montana New Hampshire Delaware New Jersey Maine Maryland Massachusetts Wisconsin Vermont Ohio North Dakota Connecticut Kansas Arkansas Virginia Nebraska Oklahoma Minnesota Colorado West Virginia Kentucky Michigan Arizona New York Georgia Hawaii Illinois Pennsylvania Alaska Rhode Island United States New Mexico California Iowa Indiana North Carolina Florida Idaho South Carolina South Dakota Missouri Washington Oregon Texas Nevada Tennessee Mississippi Louisiana Alabama

By 2015 All States will have a structural budget deficit Higher Education will likely lose funding to health care, transportation, prisons and K- 12 education. Tuition revenue will become the majority source of operational income

Shift Conclusions “Virtually all public and private colleges and institutions will see changes in their student bodies during the next decade. The only exceptions might be the top-tier, most popular institutions that already have many more highly qualified applicants than available spaces.” College Board, 2005

Trends Summary 1.Decreasing numbers of high school graduates in the Midwest and Northeast 2.Declining percentage of high school graduates pursuing higher education directly out of high school 3.Increasing numbers of freshmen choosing to start at community colleges 4.Increasing diversity and financial need of future high school graduates 5.Increasing dependence on student loans and a larger percentage of household income needed to pay for college 6.Continued growth in the college student gender gap 7.Ongoing interest declines for non-biology STEM majors

Other Shifts to be Aware of… First Generation Participation Rate Increased Competition for International Students Increased numbers of students with identified mental Illnesses Changes in Work Force needs and training Development Communication/Technology patterns: +90% with cell phones and 63% using Social Networking Facebook and MySpace prior to freshmen year

Strategic Enrollment Management is About Interacting Relationships Enhance Alumni Relations Target Prospective Students Qualify Prospective Students Cultivate Relationships Applicants Offer/Deposit/Enroll Students Delight-Satisfy Students Assist Students’ Success Graduate Students SEM as a life-cycle process: –David Kalsbeek, DePaul University, SEM IX Building a Comprehensive Approach

The Missouri Perspective

Factors Most Noted in Choosing a College Majors & Career Programs Offered Location/Campus Characteristics Cost/Affordability Campus Size/Safety Characteristics of Enrolled Students Selectivity

Student Trends in Missouri: Missouri high schools will likely graduate at least 5,000 fewer students HS student profiles will become more ethnically diverse One-third are not prepared for college level work Women will compose more than 57% of the college enrollments SOURCES: WICHE 2008, MO DHE 2007

Some Trends that have not Changed: The Golden Circle for Recruitment +70% enroll within 140 miles of home +80% enroll in home state

S&T’s Total Recruit Cycle

DECLINES IN MISSOURI’S SCHOOL AGE CHILDREN The age cohort following the baby boomers is: much smaller, having fewer children and more are leaving the state than migrating in to Missouri The age cohort in Missouri declined from 820,280 in 2000 to 769,020 in a decline of 51,260 in a four-year time period. Only 13 counties gaining school age children from SOURCE: 2007 OSCEDA

Missouri = 9.6% The Baby boom cohort is now concentrated in the age range Most families in that age range no longer have school age children living at home.

Projected Missouri Population – Number Growth from 2000 to 2020 (By Age and Race) Source: National Systems of Higher Education Management Systems based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau, ,844 -5, , , ,072 39, ,676 14,467 54,445 29,474 17,872 7,694 20,350 21,730 8, , , , , , ,000 0 to 1718 to 2425 to 4445 to 6465 and Older WhiteBlackHispanic

SEM Ways to Succeed Increase Retention Reach-out Further Increase College Participation in Primary Markets Look for Different Student Markets Focus on Transfers from 2-year Colleges

The Entire Campus Must be Engaged in the Solution “Changing demographics is not simply an issue for enrollment managers—and enrollment managers cannot “do magic” to perpetuate the status quo. Trustees, presidents, deans, faculty, and other administrators need to engage in some serious strategic planning to project manageable goals, not only from the institution’s perspective, but also from the perspective of providing access and opportunity to this new group of students.” SOURCE: College Board. (2005). “The Impact of Demographic Changes on Higher Education”

The Strategy of SEM Stabilizing enrollments Reducing Vulnerabilities Aligning EM with Academic Programs Stabilize Finances Optimize Resources Evaluate Strategies and Tactics Improve Services Improve Quality Improve Access to Information Adapted from Jim Black, 2003

Reach Out Further - Think Global Rolla, Missouri “The Middle of Everywhere”

All Students, Totals United States 5,774 Other Countries 597 Total 6,371 ALASKA CALIFORNIA IDAHO OREGON WASHINGTON MONTANA WYOMING UTAH COLORADO ARIZONA NEW MEXICO TEXAS OKLAHOMA KANSAS NEBRASKA SOUTH DAKOTA NORTH DAKOTAMINNESOTA WISCONSIN IOWA ILLINOIS OHIO IN KENTUCKY WV VIRGINIA NO. CAROLINA GEORGIA FL ALABAMA MS MISSOURI ARKANSAS LA NEVADA HAWAII MICHIGAN PENNSYLVANIA NJ NEW YORK CT MA VT NH MAINE TENNESSEE CAROLINA SO. MD DE RI DC , Geographic Origin of All Students - Fall 2008 Note: Geographic Origin is defined as student's legal residence at time of original admission to Missouri S&T. Source: Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) frozen files, end of 4 th week of classes. Revised DC 2 50 or more students 10 – 49 students students No students Legend PUERTO RICO 1 Armed Forces Pacific & Europe 6

ADAIR ANDREW ATCHISON AUDRAIN BARRY BARTON BATES BENTON BOONE BUCHANAN BUTLER CALDWELL CALLAWAY CAMDEN CARROLL CARTER CASS CEDAR CHARITON CHRISTIAN CLARK CLAY CLINTON COLE COOPER CRAWFORD DADE DALLAS DAVIESS DE KALB DENT DOUGLAS DUNKLIN FRANKLIN GENTRY GREENE GRUNDY HARRISON HENRY HICKORY HOLT HOWARD HOWELL IRON JACKSON JASPER JOHNSON KNOX LACLEDE LAFAYETTE LAWRENCE LEWIS LINCOLN LINN MCDONALD MACON MADISON MARIES MARION MERCER MILLER MONITEAU MONROE MORGAN NEWTON NODAWAY OREGON OSAGE OZARK PERRY PETTIS PHELPS PIKE PLATTE POLK PULASKI PUTNAM RALLS RANDOLPH RAY REYNOLDS RIPLEY ST. CLAIR SALINE SCOTLAND SCOTT SHANNON SHELBY STODDARD STONE SULLIVAN TANEY TEXAS VERNON WARREN WAYNE WEBSTER WORTH WRIGHT MADRID NEW MISSIS- SIPPI BOLLIN- GER GIRARDEAU CAPE WASHING- TON JEFFER- SON ST LOUIS CITY MONT- GOMERY GAS- CON- ADE SCHUY- LER LIVING- STON LOUIS ST FRANCOIS ST CHARLES ST PEMI- SCOT GENEVIEVE STE FRANCOIS ST Geographic Origin of Total Enrolled Students by County - Fall 2008 Note: Geographic Origin is defined as student's legal residence at time of original admission to Missouri S&T. Source: Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) frozen files, 4 th week after enrollment. Updated Total Enrollment from Missouri Missouri 4,433 Other Locations 1,938 Total 6, or more students 10 – 49 students students No students Legend CALDWELL 2

S&T Pre-College Programs by Grade Level R = residential C = commuter Summer Programs College Freshmen CCamp Invention (1 week) RAerospace Camp (4 days) RRobotics Camp (3 days) RMissouri Academy for Youth Advancement (MAYA) (1 month) RIt's A Girl Thing! (3 day) RSummer Solutions (girls) (1 week) RSummer Research Experience RSummer Research Academy RSummer Transportation Instit. (1 month) RBusiness Tech Week RJackling Introduction to Engineering (1 week) R Minority Introduction to Technology & Engineering (MITE) (1 week) RNuclear Engineering Camps (1 week) RC.H.I.P. Camp Computer Highly Interactive Program (4 days) RMaterials Camp (1 week) RExplosives (1 week) RHit the Ground Running (3 weeks) Helping Missouri Build a Stronger Pipeline of “STEM” Focused Students

Focus on OUTCOMES

Missouri S&T Starting Salaries UndergraduateGraduate 2003 $ 47,305 $ 52, $ 46,567 $ 52, $ 49,181 $ 53, $ 51,059 $ 58, $ 53,669 $ 62, $ 55,975 $ 63,640

New Ranking by Starting Salary! Missouri S&T : #25 among all universities in the nation #1 among Midwestern universities SOURCE: Payscale Inc, Wall Street Journal, July 30, 2008.

SEM Strategies for Success 1.Increase the College Going Rate 2.Increase Retention 3.Reach-out Further 4.Increase College Participation in Primary Markets 5.Look for Post Retirement Student Opportunities - Certificate Programs 6.Focus on Transfers from 2-year Colleges 7.Further develop Graduate Outreach and Graduate Certificate Programs

Questions that Institutions Need to Consider: Is our faculty prepared to teach students who have different academic and personal backgrounds from current students? If more “at-risk” students are anticipated, are there any changes that might help ensure college completion? Does the campus (particularly the faculty and administrators) resemble in any way the composition of future student bodies? Does the institution want to intentionally target new groups of students or will it simply adapt to changes as they occur? What are the financial resources (including financial aid) necessary to meet the institution’s enrollment goals? SOURCE: College Board, 2005

Strategic Enrollment Management Plan Increase Success of Students –Retention Rates –Graduation Rates Increase College Going Rate & Access 1.Access & Affordability 2.Pipeline of College Ready Students 3.Strategic Partnerships 4.Outreach/Education 5.Scholarships Expanding Current Markets & Capturing New Markets 1.Out-of-state students 2.Transfer Students 3.Female Students 4.Underrepresented Minority Students 5.International Students 6.Graduate Students 7.Nontraditional Students

QUESTIONS? Jay W. Goff Vice Provost and Dean for Enrollment Management Missouri University of Science and Technology Rolla, Missouri

Enrollment Performance Fall change Undergraduate % Graduate % TOTAL % Enrollment By Location On-Campus % Distance or On-Line % Enrollment By Ethnic Group American Indian/Alaskan Native % Asian-American % Black, Non-Hispanic % Hispanic-American % Non-Resident, International % Ethnicity Not Specified % White, Non-Hispanic3,4883,5673,7563,9494,0264,2424,4234,6654,79437% Total4,6264,8835,2405,4595,4075,6025,8586,1676,37138% Total Minorities, Non-Caucasian US Citizens % % of Total8% 9% 10% Under-Represented Minority US Citizens % % of Total5%6% 7%6%7% Non-Resident, International % % of Total13%15%16%14%11%10% 11% Enrollment By Gender Female1,0501,0971,1331,2481,2091,2241, % 23% 22%23%22% 23% 22% Male % 77% 78%77%78% 77% 78% BOLD: Missouri S&T Record High

Classroom Utilization

Classroom Utilization Comparison

HOMESCHOOLED STUDENTS: Number and distribution of school-age children who were homeschooled, by amount of time spent in schools: 1999 and 2003 NOTE: Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding. Homeschooled children are those ages 5 – 17 educated by their parents full or part time who are in a grade equivalent to kindergarten through 12th grade. Excludes students who were enrolled in public or private school more than 25 hours per week and students who were homeschooled only because of temporary illness. SOURCE: Princiotta, D., Bielick, S., Van Brunt, A., and Chapman, C. (2005). Homeschooling in the United States: 2003 (NCES 2005 – 101), table 1. Data from U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Parent Survey of the National Household Education Surveys Program (NHES), 1999 and Parent and Family Involvement in Education Survey of the NHES, 2003.