U.S. East Coast Sea Level Acceleration: Recent Evidence from Tide Gauges John Boon Virginia Institute of Marine Science Gloucester Point, Virginia 23062.

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Presentation transcript:

U.S. East Coast Sea Level Acceleration: Recent Evidence from Tide Gauges John Boon Virginia Institute of Marine Science Gloucester Point, Virginia 23062

Sea Level Trends: GMSL vs. RMSL

1952 New York (The Battery), NY (N = 119 yrs) Trend Estimate: 2.97 ± 0.09 mm/yr Linear Trend: Trend estimate from a fitted mmsl* time series of fixed length N * monthly mean sea level (seasonal cycle removed)

Serial Trends: Trend estimates from fitted series of fixed-length n < N ordered in time 1952 New York (The Battery), NY (N = 119 yrs) Trend Estimate: 2.97 ± 0.09 mm/yr * monthly mean sea level (seasonal cycle removed)

Sea Level Trends: GMSL vs. RMSL (n=10 years)

Serial Trends: Trend Estimates from Fixed-length Series Ordered in Time > 78 years

Principal Components Analysis (PCA) mmsl x 8 stations for varying values of n

Serial Trends: PCA

60-year oscillation? ( Chambers, Merrifield, and Nerem GRL 2012)

Constant Acceleration over ? (relative sea level rise rate)

Boston, MA F = ** Norfolk, VA F = ** Charleston, SC F = 0.01 ns Critical Value: F = % confidence level

The 2011 La Niña: So strong the oceans fell Boening et al., GRL % Confidence Bands about individual mmsl heights

Acceleration: mm/yr 2 Linear Rate: 2.88 mm/yr

Acceleration: mm/yr 2 Linear Rate: 5.00 mm/yr

20 years not sufficient!

ft ft 1.53 ft U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Sea Level Calculator

Sea Level Acceleration U.S.-Canadian Atlantic Coast Tide Stations RSL rise rate history informs serial trends PCA identifies 60-year cycle in addition to Period of near-constant acceleration that began about 1987 as evident from serial trends Acceleration strongest in NE and progressively weaker toward Chesapeake Bay region Expect mmsl 0.8 to 0.9 m above MSL by 2050 between Norfolk and Boston.. If acceleration remains constant