The External Environment for Developing Countries January 2009 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group.

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Presentation transcript:

The External Environment for Developing Countries January 2009 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group

Global industrial production plummets into 4 th quarter of manufacturing production, ch% (saar) Source: DEC Prospects Group. OECD Developing World

Source: Thomson/Datastream, Morgan Stanley (*USD index)....while worries about recession and banks push markets lower in January equity market indices (LCU)* Sep = 100. MSCI (Emerging Markets) TOPIX (Japan) DJIA (USA) DAX (Germany)

Industrial countries

U.S. employment losses in 2008 sum to 2.6 million...worst since 1945 change in non-farm employment, ‘000 Source: U.S. Department of Labor. monthly change 3mma change

Falling exports, orders and production pressure U.S. GDP export volumes, durable goods orders and IPmfg, ch% saar Source: Department of Commerce, Federal Reserve. Export volumes [R] Durable goods orders [R] Production [L]

Source: Thomson/Datastream. Interbank market rates- and yield on ten-year note easing Fed Funds target- and effective rates; Libor and T-note 10 yr Fed Funds Target LIBOR 6 months T-note 10-year Fed Funds Effective

Japan’s exports and production point to severe 4 th quarter downturn export volumes and manufacturing output, ch% saar Source: Bank of Japan and Japan Cabinet Office. Industrial production [L] Export volumes [R]

Household spending turns to the doldrums in the last months of 2008 household expend, retail sales [L]; Tokyo consumer confidence [R] Source: Japan Cabinet Office. HH spending [L] Consumer confidence [R] Retail sales [L]

Source: Thomson/Datastream. Yen strength on unwinding “carry trades” supports BOJ ease Yen/USD rate (inverse) [right]; TIBOR and JGB 10-year [left] Yen/dollar (inverse) [R] TIBOR 6 months [L] JGB- ten year [L]

European confidence plummets while ECB asesses economic damage Euro Area consumer confidence [L]; IFO overall [R] Source: Eurostat-- Thomson/Datastream. IFO overall [R] EC Consumer confidence [L]

Production now in sharp decline across the Euro Area manufacturing production, ch% (saar) Source: Eurostat. Germany France Italy Euro Area

Source: Thomson/Datastream. Euro interbank rates fall quickly adding pressure on the currency Euribor and Bund- 10 yr [L]; USD per Euro [R] USD per Euro [R] EURIBOR 6 months [L] Bund, ten-year [L]

Industrial production

Developing countries’ IP plunges, mirroring high-income countries real IP (3m/3m saar) Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG. High-income Developing countries

East Asia and Central and Eastern Europe hit hardest real IP (3m/3m saar) ECA East Asia, excl China Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG.

Dramatic IP contraction in export intensive economies real IP (6m/6m saar) Hungary Turkey Czech Republic Korea Taiwan Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG.

International trade

Major OECD imports contract in step with domestic demand import volumes: U.S, Japan, Germany and U.K. ch% 3mma y/y Source: National Agencies through Thomson/Datastream. United States Japan Germany U.K.

Developing exports in decline export volumes: China, India, Mexico and Jordan ch% 3mma y/y Source: National Agencies through Thomson/Datastream. China India Jordan Mexico

Source: Department of Commerce. U.S. trade balance improves sharply in November on plummeting oil price Goods balance Oil balance Non-oil balance goods balance, and oil- and non-oil balances ($bn)

Oil prices

Oil prices appear to stabilize amid OPEC production cuts $/ bbl mb/d Oil price [L scale] OPEC-11 Production (x Angola) [R] Source: IEA and DECPG Commodities Group.

Growth in U.S. Oil Demand (yr/yr) kb/d Source: IEA and DECPG Commodities Group.

WTI Futures Prices - NYMEX Jan $/bbl Monthly contract prices to Dec 2013 on select dates in Oct 31 Sep 30 Aug 29 Dec 24 Source: NYMEX and DECPG Commodities Group.

Non-oil commodity prices

Agriculture price declines begin to moderate 2000=100 Source: Datastream and DECPG Commodities Group.

Metal prices rebound slightly on index rebalancing $/ton‘ 000 tons Copper price LME stocks Source: LME and DECPG Commodities Group.

Global steel production plunging mn tons Source: Datastream and DECPG Commodities Group.

International Finance

A difficult year for emerging market capital flows Source: DECPG Finance Team.

Equities post modest gains in December percentage change (in local currency) Source: Bloomberg and DECPG Finance Team Oct NovDec

Source: JPMorgan-Chase and DECPG Finance Team. Sharp widening in EM bond spreads at year-end 2008 Yen/USD rate (inverse) [right]; TIBOR and JGB 10-year [left] EMBIG annual retruns [Left] EMBIG spread [Right]

Currencies

Source: Thomson/Datastream. yen/U SD USD/Euro (inverse) Dollar falls on Fed rate cut until ECB reduction seen as sure USD per Euro (inverse) [Left] and Yen per USD [right]

Interest differentials well in favor of stronger euro since November USD Libor and EURIBOR (6 months), percent EURIBOR 6 months USD LIBOR 6 months Source: Thomson/Datastream.

Dollar mixed against EM currencies LCU per USD indexes, Sept =100 [*increase = weaker LCU] Turkish lira Brazilian real Korean won Russian rouble

The External Environment for Developing Countries January 2009 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group