The Commercial Real Estate Outlook Patrick Newport U.S. Economist July 2010.

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Presentation transcript:

The Commercial Real Estate Outlook Patrick Newport U.S. Economist July 2010

Copyright © 2010 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved. 2 (Annual percent change)(Percent) The U.S. Expansion Proceeds at a Slower Pace

Copyright © 2010 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved. 3 (Percent change, annual rate) Payroll Employment Begins to Recover

Copyright © 2010 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved. 4 The Stress in Financial Markets Has Been Reduced Considerably TED Spread* *3-month LIBOR less 3-month Treasury bill rate;** Low-Quality (A2/P2) over High-Quality (AA), 30-day spread, non-financial; *** Corporate Yield Less 10-Year Treasury (Percentage points) Commercial Paper Spreads** Corporate Bond Spreads***Fed Policy

Copyright © 2010 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved. 5 (Loans outstanding, billions of dollars) Bank Commercial and Industrial Loans: Still Shrinking

Copyright © 2010 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved. 6 (Net percent tightening standards for commercial and industrial loans) Commercial and Industrial Loan Standards No Longer Tightening Source: Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices

Copyright © 2010 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved. 7 Nonresidential Construction: Architects’ Billings Still Soft, But Off the Floor (Diffusion Index) * Source: American Institute of Architects

Copyright © 2010 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved. 8 The Downturn Has Another Year to Go Spending stabilizes at just over 3% of GDP Real spending turns around in the second half of 2011.

Copyright © 2010 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved. 9 Real Spending Declines Across the Board

Copyright © 2010 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved. 10 Multi-Family Housing Activity: Bottoming Out?

Thank you! Patrick Newport U.S. Economist