Bill Kuo DTC: Overview and AOP 2010

Outlines The DTC Management Structure The expected outcome of the DTC Management Board (MB) meeting DTC 2009 budget and major accomplishments DTC 2010 AOP process and budget allocation DTC Science Advisory Board Feedback and interaction with DTC Executive Committee

3 Fundamental Purpose of DTC DTC To serve as a bridge between research and operations to facilitate the activities of both halves of the NWP Community –Research: functionally equivalent operational environment to test and evaluate new NWP methods over extended retrospective periods –Operational: benefits from DTC T & E of strengths and weaknesses of new NWP advances prior to consideration for operational implementation Research Community Operational Community New Science and Technology Operational Codes DTC NCAR/RAL  NOAA/ESRL

8-Member WRF Executive Oversight Board (existing) AFWA NCAR NCEP OAR ARL FAA NRL OON ARL DTC Executive Committee AFWA NCAR NWS OAR (EC provides agency oversight and policy guidance, and sets high-level priorities.) External Community Science Advisory Board DTC Director Management Board (Director + Deputy Dirs. + Agency Representatives) DTC Management Structure* *Blue indicates structure established by the DTC Charter

Management Structure Day-by-Day Operation by Bill Kuo (DTC Director), Louisa Nance (DTC Assistant Director), Steve Koch (GSD Director), and Barb Brown (JNT Director) Priorities set by funding agencies (DTC Executive Committee) with guidance from DTC Management Board and Science Advisory Board Executive Committee Members from funding agencies Appoints DTC director, executive oversight Management BoardDirector, deputy directors, members from funding organizations Annual operating plan and budget Science Advisory Board Members from operational and research communities Strategic direction and objectives 5

DTC Executive Committee DTC is governed by the DTC Charter. DTC Charter was signed on 15 th September According to the DTC Charter, Executive Committee (EC) has the oversight authority over DTC. The DTC EC consists of: NWS: Don Berchoff, Louis Uccellini* OAR: Sandy MacDonald AFWA: Fred Lewis, John Murphy* NCAR: Roger Wakimoto, DTC budget and annual operational plan need to be approved by the DTC EC. *Light blue indicates non-voting members

DTC DEPUTY DIRECTOR(S) AND MANAGEMENT BOARD In addition to the DTC Director, each of the Parties may appoint a Deputy Director who will assist the DTC Director with internal management of the DTC. The DTC Director, Deputy Director(s) and an additional member appointed by each of the signatories, will constitute the DTC Management Board. The Management Board will assist the DTC Director in preparing the AOP, the annual budget, the selection of codes for testing and proposals for multi-year code testing and evaluation projects. Management issues unresolved by the Management Board can be elevated to the DTC EC for resolution. The Management Board will meet regularly in person, by telecom or by to chart the direction of the WRF DTC, agree on operational priorities and assign tasks to staff in accordance with the policy of the DTC EC and subject to availability of funds. They also will recommend funding decisions to the Director on proposals received in response to announcements of opportunity for the DTC visitor program (see section 3.D). A quorum, defined as the Director plus at least one representative from each of the signatories, is required for the Management Board to conduct business.

DTC Management Board DTC Management Board consists of: Bill Kuo, DTC Director OAR: Steve Koch*, Marty Ralph NWS: Bill Lapenta*, Fred Toepfer NCAR: Barb Brown*, Joe Klemp AFWA: Steve Rugg*, Jeff Cotela Non-Voting Members for DTC MB: Bob Gall, former DTC Director Louisa Nance, Assistant Director Naomi Surgi, NCEP Liaison * indicates Deputy Directors

DTC Director’s Office GSIHWRF WRF-NMM + WPP HWT HMT MET Ensemble testbed NEMS Visitor Program DTC is managed in terms of tasks. Each task has a task lead, who is responsible for developing the work plan and ensuring the successful execution of the task. Most tasks are collaborative efforts between staff members of NCAR/JNT and ESRL/GSD. DTC Director’s Office will provide oversight for the various tasks. DTC Director’s Office: Bill Kuo Steve Koch Barbara Brown Louisa Nance Naomi Surgi Pam Johnson DTC is managed by tasks

Expected outcome of the MB meeting Review and feedback on DTC AOP 2010 and budget allocation: Are the proposed tasks for DTC appropriate and consistent with agency expectation? Are the budget allocations adequate and consistent with anticipated accomplishments? Suggestions for the revision of DTC Charter Nomination for the DTC Science Advisory Board Preliminary guidance on DTC AOP 2011 Discuss DTC’s future directions Decide on how DTC MB operate

DTC Annual Operating Plan - 09 WRF (NMM) + WPP community support (Jamie Wolff) Reference Configurations implementation (Jamie Wolff) WRF Rapid Refresh vertical level T&E (Jamie Wolff) MET support and development (Tressa Fowler) GSI community support (Hans Huang) HWRF community support (Ligia Bernardet) HMT-DTC: verification of precipitation forecast, ensemble prediction and verification (Ed Tollerud) HWT-DTC: Evaluation of cloud-resolving model predictions (Tara Jensen) NAM-GFS precipitation forecast comparison (Jamie Wolff) Mesoscale ensemble workshop (Bill Kuo) Publication of core test results (Louisa Nance, Ligia Bernardet) Visitor program (Louisa Nance) High-Resolution Hurricane Test (Ligia Bernardet, Louisa Nance) 11 Most tasks are collaborative efforts between GSD and NCAR staff, parenthesis shows the task lead or co-leads.

Highlights for FY 2009 HWRF V3.2: Bringing the NCEP operational HWRF into the general WRF repository HRH testing for HFIP Assessing the impact of grid resolution on hurricane prediction GSI Repository & code management plan Making NCEP GSI available to the broad community Ensemble workshop – Sep 2009 Produced a white-paper that will provide valuable guidance to DTC and the NWP community Other major accomplishments will be presented by individual tasks

Proposed Activities for FY 2010 Provide support on community systems: WRF HWRF GSI MET Conduct T&E activities on these community systems for research and operation. Establish a DTC Ensemble Testbed (DET) Participate in the development and implementation of NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) framework Conduct community workshops/meetings to facilitate collaboration between research and operation Conduct a DTC visitor program

DTC FT 2010 Budget Allocations (in $K) TaskNOAA Core HFIP* USWRP AFWANCARGSDNSF*Total DTC Dir. Office Visitor Prog WRF support HWRF ,269 GSI MET HMT-DTC HWT-DTC DET651 NEMS173 Total2, ,125 * Indicate pending support (from HFIP and NSF)

Split of Funding between NCAR and GSD for the execution of DTC tasks Task NCAR/JNTESRL/GSDTotal DTC Dir. Office Visitor Program222 WRF support HWRF ,269 GSI MET (Model Evaluation Tool)395 HMT-DTC HWT-DTC148 DET (DTC Ensemble Testbed) NEMS173 Total3,5811,5445,125

Anticipated Major Accomplishments for FY 2010 Having a HWRF V3.2 that can effectively serve research and operation: Allow NCEP to configure its operational HWRF from the WRF repository for FY11 implementation Community will be able to conduct research experiments using the same HWRF V3.2 code Develop an effective and functioning GSI Boulder Community Repository to serve research and operation Develop a functioning DTC ensemble testbed – with inputs from research and operational communities Developing expertise in NEMS and prepare DTC for NEMS community support Conduct testing and evaluation of community systems (e.g., WRF, HWRF, GSI, MET) to support research and community (e.g., HFIP, AFWA, EMC, … etc)

DTC Science Advisory Board A DTC Science Advisory Board (AB) will assist the Director in shaping the strategic direction and objectives of DTC. Each appointment to the AB will be for a term of 3 years and will be subject to the concurrence of the EC. The AB provides advice to the Director on emerging NWP technologies, strategic computer resources issues, selection of code for testing and evaluation, selection of candidates for the visiting scientist program and acts as a sounding board to assist the Director. The DTC AB will be nominated by the Management Board. Membership on the AB will be representative of the U.S. WRF modeling community. The EC will provide final approval of AB nominations. The AB will meet at least biannually to perform business, either in person, by phone, and/or electronically. The AB may elect one of its members as chairperson to facilitate its business.

DTC Science Advisory Board A preliminary list of 34 names have been provided by DTC MB. Need to finalize the selection of candidates: What would be an appropriate number for the DTC AB? Do we have proper spread and expertise to provide advice on DTC's current and future directions? Do we have proper representation from various sectors? How to ensure continuity (e.g., rotation of membership)?

Feedback and interaction with DTC EC The DTC AOP and budget should be prepared with the help and participation of DTC MB. The DTC AOP and budget should be submitted to the DTC EC for approval with the endorsement of the DTC MB. DTC MB members should communicate their support and recommendation to their respective agency members on the DTC EC.

Longer-Term Direction Modeling framework: WRF, NEMS, and ESMF NCEP is migrating all its systems to NEMS The WRF system remains on its framework How to effectively share modeling system components? Global modeling: Several new global models are being developed with unstructured grid that show great promises These models are expected to run at cloud-/mesoscale resolutions Data assimilation: The community is moving toward advanced systems: 4D-Var, EnKF, and hybrid Ensemble prediction: There is a strong demand from the society for probabilistic forecasts from cloud to global scales A DTC Strategic Plan?

Guiding Principles for DTC Management: Open Transparent Accountable

Louisa Nance DTC Director’s Office

Director’s Office Responsibilities Manage and coordinate DTC tasks Conduct or assist with workshops and tutorials Interact with DTC partners on collaborative efforts Create and maintain the DTC Website Provide administrative support for DTC management meetings Host the DTC Visitor Program Good communication is key to the success of the DTC!

DTC Organization DTC Director’s Office WRF WRF for Hurricanes GSIMETHMTHWTDETNEMS DTC Visitor Program Task Leads:  Develop work plan  Ensure successful execution of task Director’s Office:  Coordinate resource allocations  Resolve staffing issues  Overall planning and reporting DTC Staff Tools

Relationship between DTC Tasks WRF WRF for Hurricanes GSI METHMT-DTC HWT- DTC DET Identify commonalities - broader coordination and longer term planning

Interactions with DTC Partners Community Codes are a collaborative effort with developers WRF – MMM, EMC, GSD WRF for Hurricanes – EMC,MMM GSI – EMC, GSD, MMM  Contributions from developers critical to success! Maintaining strong ties to Operational Centers EMC AFWA  To truly serve as a bridge, DTC activities need to address needs of operational centers

Implementing DTC Management Plan External Management Groups Executive Committee Management Board Science Advisory Board Regular conference calls and in-person meetings will be critical to the success of this plan Inform external groups about DTC accomplishments and proposed plans Provide recommendations on priorities and future direction of the DTC

Interaction with Broader Community Workshops WRF Users Workshop DTC Verification Workshop National Workshop on Mesoscale Probabilistic Prediction EMC/MMM/DTC Joint Hurricane Science Workshop Technical Workshop on Mesoscale Probability Prediction Tutorials WRF MET WRF for Hurricanes GSI Strengthen the DTC connection with the broader community!

DTC Website Results from T&E activities Info on available community codes Info on Visitor Program Info on verification activities Meetings &Workshop Coming Soon!

DTC Visitor Program Past FormatSuccesses Annual Announcement of Opportunity Areas of emphasis provided by reps from WRF principle partners Proposals reviewed by panel w/ reps from WRF principle partners 1 month salary + travel and per diem to visit DTC or operational center ~1 year to complete project WRF version 3.1 QNSE PBL scheme Improved Mellor-Yamada Level 3 Turbulence Closure PBL scheme WRF version 3.2 Subfilter closure models for LES* MET version 1.1 Neighborhood methods MET version 2.0 Intensity scale wavelet method

DTC Visitor Program Future Format (proposal) Annual Announcement of Opportunity Management Board provides recommendation on overall direction and areas of emphasis Selection committee composed of representatives from Science Advisory Board and Management Board reviews proposals Double the funding allocation set aside for visitor projects Offer two types of opportunities Provide 2-months salary + travel and per diem for the PI to visit DTC or operational center to work on a project relevant to DTC mission Provide funding for an extended visit by a graduate student to work with DTC on project relevant to our mission

Resource Requirements Staff CategoryFTECost Managers1.70$470.2 K Administrative Assistant0.50$51.8 K Visitor Computing Support0.10$21.7 K Other expensesCost Travel $ 30 K External Committee Meetings (EC, MB, and DAB) $36 K Materials & Supplies $10 K Computers $25 K Visitor Projects $200 K 100% increase

Jamie Wolff WRF Community Support & Test and Evaluation

WRF Community Support Goals Maintain community-released code repositories WRF* * WRF Post Processor (WPP)* Facilitate community contributions to the respective code repositories Provide direct assistance through wrfhelp for the WRF-NMM and WPP code* Support community outreach events * * -in collaboration with MMM* and EMC*

Major Accomplishments for FY 2009 WRF version 3.1 released in April 2009 * * Bug fix release (v3.1.1) in July 2009 * * Wrfhelp support for WRF-NMM and WPP* ~45 s per month WRF Tutorials * * 26 January – 5 February July 2009 WRF Users Workshop* June in collaboration with MMM* and EMC*

Proposed Activities for FY 2010 Enhance WRF Regression testing * Update the weekly regression test to include additional NMM configurations Establish additional testing to be performed every 2-3 months Exercise longer forecasts, restarts, data assimilation Initiate transition from WPP to Unified Post Processor (UPP)* Establish a community code repository for UPP, along with a code management plan Continue on-going efforts in community support -in collaboration with MMM* and EMC*

Anticipated Major Accomplishments for FY 2010 Release WRF version 3.2 in April 2010 Establish a UPP code repository and management plan Offer bi-annual WRF Tutorials in January and July 2010 Co-host WRF Users Workshop in June 2010

WRF Test and Evaluation Goals Widely publicize verification results from a variety of extensively tested and evaluated configurations Provide operational community with guidance for selecting new NWP techniques with potential added value Provide research community with baselines against which new techniques can be evaluated

Major Accomplishments for FY 2009 Finalized the Reference Configuration (RC) concept DTC RCs Community Contributed Reference Configurations (CCRCs) Increased community awareness of the RC concept Presented at the WRF Users Workshop and the NWP/WAF Conference Established RC webpage for distributing information to the community

Reference Configurations WRF Repository In the WRF framework Meets WRF coding standards Minimal testing Code & documentation is maintained by the author Reference Configurations Selected from the WRF Repository Particular collection of config files set at compile- and run-time Extensively tested Design document & statistical results distributed by the DTC Possible elevation to Operational Configuration Operational Configurations Robust, fully tested current operational NWP system Maintained by the operational centers WRF Repository RC a RC b RC e RC d RC c Operational Configs

Proposed Activities for FY 2010 Establish DTC RCs VersionCorePhysics Suite WRFv2.2+ NMM NCEP WRFv2.2+ ARW NCEP WRFv3.0 ARW Rapid Refresh WRFv3.1.1+ARWAFWA Op WRFv ARWQNSE PBL/sfc layer Retest select RCs with WRF v3.2 as resources permit NAM/GFS Precipitation Forecast Comparison Utilize advanced verification techniques (MODE, FSS) to better assess impact of finer grid spacing

Anticipated Major Accomplishments for FY 2010 Implement the RC concept for a number of configurations Distribute final reports to funding agencies from all testing and evaluation activities conducted in FY2010 Publish methodology and results for select test activities

Resource Requirements Staff CategoryFTECost Scientists0.72$132.1 K Software Engineers0.91$181.7 K Students0.07$3.5 K Staff CategoryFTECost Scientists1.58$288.7 K Software Engineers0.38$65.5 K Students0.45$22.2 K WRF Community Support WRF Test and Evaluation Other: Travel: $3 K Publications: $1.5 K

Ligia Bernardet WRF for Hurricanes

WRF for Hurricanes Goals Facilitate transfer of research to operations by creating a framework for NCEP and the research community to collaborate Support the community in using HWRF Develop and maintain a hurricane testing and evaluation infrastructure at DTC Perform HWRF tests to assure integrity of code and evaluate new developments for potential operational implementation

WRF V3.2 WRF V3.1.1 WRF V3.1 WRF V3.0 WRF V2.2 WRF V2.1 WRF V2 05/ / / / / / /2009 HWRF code management: a new mechanism to facilitate collaboration between research and operations HWRF configuration for operations (2011) Extensive Testing WRF Repository oper HWRF 2007 oper HWRF 2007 oper HWRF 2008 oper HWRF 2008 oper HWRF 2009 oper HWRF 2009 oper HWRF 2010 oper HWRF 2010 WRF V3.2+ Feb 2011? upgrades 2011 upgrades 2011

Major Accomplishments for FY 2009 HWRF code management plan (DTC and EMC collaboration) established Operational HWRF capabilities added to the trunk of the general WRF repository, making HWRF a compile-time and run-time configuration of WRF Four completely new codes transitioned to DTC (new expertise, porting, automation etc.) Princeton Ocean Model Vortex Initialization Coupler Vortex Tracker WRF for Hurricanes user support and Feb 2010 tutorial plan established jointly with EMC and NCAR MMM

Proposed Activities for FY 2010 Conduct WRF for Hurricanes Tutorial Release HWRF to the community and provide user support Insure the HWRF configuration in repository matches forecast skill of the 2008/2009 operational model Incorporate NCEP 2010 HWRF upgrades in repositories Automate HWRF runs at DTC Conduct tests to evaluate new developments and support pre-implementation activities at NCEP and HFIP

Anticipated Major Accomplishments for FY 2010 A community HWRF system with user support Community HWRF code matching skill of operational HWRF used in 2009 season Enhanced HWRF capability through contributions from HFIP and community

DTC Testing Protocol Code to be tested must be in the WRF repository Preferably test official release code Before testing for EMC or HFIP is conducted, good code management practices need to be observed This forces a hierarchy in the process, for example… First must have HWRF 3 rd nest in the repository and then… Perform tests of high-resolution configurations Therefore… resources will be used to construct a foundation for T&E, before testing of more sophisticated configurations can be conducted

HWRF-V2 and V3: Ike V2 and V3 make “similar” forecast Full assessment of V3 skill still needed

HWRF-V2 and V3: Gustav Remaining issue on V3 intensity

Resource Requirements Staff CategoryFTECost Scientists1.57$ K Software Engineers1.13$ K Staff CategoryFTECost Scientists2.3$ K Software Engineers1.36$ K Community Code Testing and Evaluation Other: Travel $6 K and Publications $1.5 K

Hans Huang Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) Data Assimilation System

Goals Provide current operational GSI capabilities to the research community (O2R) Provide a framework for distributed development of new capabilities & advances in data assimilation Provide a pathway for data assimilation research to operations process (R2O) Provide rational basis to operational centers and research community for enhancement of data assimilation systems

Major Accomplishments for FY 2009 Collaboration and coordination with EMC, AFWA, GSD and NCAR Boulder GSI Community Repository Boulder community release, documentation and support T&E An end-to-end WPS, WRF-ARW, GSI and MET suite Extended runs to evaluate data impacts and running schemes

EMC GSI Repository EMC GSI Repository Boulder Community GSI Repository release GSD MMM Community EMC DTC Code Management Plan GMAO Others? Boulder Community GSI Code Management Developers (community) 57 Developers

Code Release v1.0 Release Branch Release is done on this tag Code release 2.0 Release Branch Boulder GSI Code Repository JulySepAug Dec JanFeb Mar Commits from EMC EMC Q1FY10 operational implementation (global) Apr EMC Trunk branch Commits from Boulder developers 2010 Beta Release v2.0

GSI v1.0 was released on September 25, 2009: GSI code (based on NOAA/NCEP Q1FY09) Compilation/configuration tool GSI required libraries Updated GSI User’s Guide Tested on IBM Supercomputer, Linux workstation, Linux Clusters Community Release

Experiments  GFSWRF: ARW runs. Started from GFS analysis every 6 hours  CYC_CONV: GSI and ARW runs in a full cycling mode. Prepbufr data were assimilated.  CYC_CONV+RAD: Same as CYC_CONV except AMSU-A radiance data were assimilated.  CYC_CONV+RAD+GPS: Same as CYC_CONV+RAD except GPS RO refractivity were assimilated.  LCYC_CON+RAD+GPS: Same as CYC_CONV+RAD+GPS except the runs were in a limited cycling mode. Verification using MET v2.0 Community GSI Data Assimilation System FY2009 T&E

Proposed Activities for FY 2010 Collaborations and coordination DTC Maryland staff EMC visitors to Boulder Monthly GSI community developer meetings Boulder Community Repository Update, port and enhance Sync with EMC GSI repository Regression tests Develop community tools Community support Form a community GSI advisory committee GSI community code release v2.0: April 2010 GSI community tutorial: June 2010 Update GSI User’s Guide v2.0 GSI-help, GSI webpage, online documentation and online tutorial T&E AFWA GSI Testbed

Anticipated Major Accomplishments for FY 2010 GSI Community code release v2.0: April 2010 GSI Tutorial: 28 – 30 June 2010, Boulder, CO Updated GSI User’s Guide v2.0 Community GSI advisory committee T&E activity report

Resource Requirements Staff CategoryFTECost Scientists3.2$514.6K Software Engineers0.5$88.9K Other(e.g., Travel)$18K Total3.7$621.5K

Tressa L. Fowler Model Evaluation Tools

What is MET? A community software package. Basic tools for verification. Advanced tools for verification. Up to date. Supported.

MET Goals Maintain and improve a consistent, complete, current set of verification tools for NWP community. Support these tools through help and tutorials. Investigate new methods to incorporate into MET.

Major Accomplishments for FY 2009 Release of MET 2.0, with wavelet and probability methods. DTC verification workshop on cloud and ensemble verification. Implementation and completion of first two full length MET tutorials. Wavelet decomposition difference

Proposed Activities for FY 2010 Development of methods for evaluating forecasts through time. Enhancement of ensemble and cloud verification methods. Test prototype METViewer with HWT.

Wind Speed Object Dec 13-14, 2008 Time in vertical

Anticipated Major Accomplishments for FY 2010 Release of MET 3.0, with cloud and ensemble verification capability. DTC verification workshop Evaluating forecasts through time Cloud verification methods Prototype release of database and display system, METViewer.

Resource Requirements Staff CategoryFTECost Support Scientists0.30$51 K Support Software Engineers 0.60$101.4 K Development Scientists 0.25$42.7 K Development Software Engineers 0.98$171.6 K Travel$3 K Workshop$25 K