China’s “Good Neighbor” Policy in Southeast Asia: Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. Department of Political Science Indiana University of Pennsylvania NEH/ASDP 2011 “Dynamics of Cultural Unity and Diversity in Southeast Asia” or “How to Be a Regional Hegemon and Still Be Liked”

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 2 Southeast Asia: Context

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 3

4 The Paradox International Relations Theory Posits that Power Shifts Can Lead to Tensions, Counter-Balancing, Conflict; Overwhelming Power Becomes a Hegemon China’s Power vis-à-vis Southeast Asia Since 1980 Has Shifted Dramatically However, China’s Relations with Southeast Asia Today Are Far Better than in Previous Decades Answer is Partially the Result of a “Good Neighbor Policy”

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 5 Evolution of Policy Phase 1: Inaction Phase 2: Over-Reaction Phase 3: Moderated Action: “Good Neighbor”

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 6 Indicators of China’s Regional Dominance Population Military Economic Opinion

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 7

8 Source: SIPRI

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 9

10 Military Expenditures,

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 11 Military Expenditures,

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 12

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Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 18 CountryImportsExports Brunei35 Cambodia310 Indonesia12 Laos22 Malaysia21 Myanmar13 Philippines21 Singapore32 Thailand21 Vietnam13 China’s Rank as Trade Partner, Southeast Asia 2010

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 19 Source: IMF DOTS, 2009, 2011

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 20 Source: East Asia Barometer,

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 21 Source: East Asia Barometer,

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 22 Source: East Asia Barometer,

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 23 Source: East Asia Barometer,

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 24 Source: East Asia Barometer,

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 25 National Averages Source: East Asia Barometer,

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 26 Evolution of Policy Phase 1: Inaction Phase 2: Over-Reaction Phase 3: Moderated Action: “Good Neighbor”

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 27 The Late Qing Dynasty Pogroms of Chinese Overseas Ignored China Saw overseas Chinese as “…outcasts who had not hesitated to abandon their homeland for the sake of commerce.” Most of Southeast Asia Under European Control 清代清代清代清代

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 28 Over-Action: China-SE Asia Relations, China Became Communist in 1949, SE Asia Independent North Korea Invaded S. Korea 1950 Vietnam War Created a Communist North USA Intervention, SEATO

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 29 Over-Action: China-SE Asia Relations, Overseas Chinese Communities Often Seen as “Fifth Columnists” Malayan Emergency Indonesia 9/65 China Highly Critical of Moves Against Ethnic Chinese by Southeast Asian governments

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 30 Counter-Action: ASEAN Formed 1967 Initially Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines, Singapore Substantial Anti-Communist Insurgency in Focus Key Effort to Create a Common Front vis-à-vis External Powers Eventually Admitted Communist/Socialist States

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 31 Over-Action: China-SE Asia Relations, Data Show Chinese Higher Chinese Tendency to Use Force Soviet Involvement in Southeast Asia Vietnamese Invasion of Pol Pot Regime in Cambodia, 12/78; Chinese Retaliatory Invasion of Northern Vietnam 2/79 Expulsion of Ethnic Chinese from Vietnam Polarization of Sino-Southeast Asian Relations

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 32 Moderating Action: The “Good Neighbor Policy” Chinese Diplomatic Situation Spring 1989 Isolation After Tiananmen 6/4/89 Normalization of Relations with USSR Li Peng tour of Southeast Asia 1990 Secret Sino-Vietnamese Negotiations in Chengdu 1990 Vo Van Kiet and Party leader Do Muoi Visiting Beijing 11/91

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 33 Moderating Action: The “Good Neighbor Policy” Chinese Approached Suharto During Showa Emperor’s Funeral early 1989, Accepted Negotiations Throughout 1989 August 1990 Li Peng Visit to Jakarta to Normalize Relations Singapore Last Normalization as per Lee Kwan Yew Pledge

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 34

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Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 36 South China Sea Conflicting Claims to Islands and Reefs China/Taiwan, Vietnam: All Malaysia, Philippines, Indonesia, Brunei: Portions At Issue, Hydrocarbon Potential, Sea Lanes Clashes 1974, 1988, 1995 Subsequent Negotiation of Code of Conduct 2002 Through ASEAN

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 37 ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) Est. 1993/94 from PMC Explicitly Security Organization Members: Australia, Bangladesh, Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Canada, China, Democratic Peoples' Republic of Korea, European Union, India, Indonesia, Japan, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Mongolia, New Zealand, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Republic of Korea, Russian Federation, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Timor Leste, United States, and Viet Nam.

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 38 ASEAN +3/ APT/ 10+3 Est in response to financial crisis, “Chiang Mai Initiative” Formalized 1999 Includes ASEAN, China, South Korea, Japan “China endorses the role of ASEAN Plus Three as the main channel for the advancement of East Asian cooperation.”

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 39 China Myanmar Thailand Cambodia Laos Vietnam Malaysia Singapore Indonesia Philippines ASEAN S.Korea Japan “+3” USAUSA

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 40 Competitive Institutions Formed 1989 by Australian Proposal 21 members Includes USA, Russia, Mexico, Peru, Taiwan Too Diffuse to be Real Competition No Exclusion; Can Be Members of Both Coming to Honolulu in November!

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 41 Conclusion Resolution of the Paradox: Decline of Ideology of Communism Resolution of Status of Overseas Chinese Collapse of External Actor Balancing Against Intentions More than Capabilities Triumph of Diplomacy, and of Southeast Asian Initiative

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 42 ASEAN-China Free Trade Area Initial Agreement Signed 2002, launched 2003 Further Implementation in 2010 Does not include Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 43 Myanmar: Export Partners, Source: IMF DOTS, 2009, 2011

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 44 Myanmar: Import Partners, Source: IMF DOTS, 2009, 2011

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 45 Myanmar: Export Partners, 2010

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 46 Myanmar: Import Partners, 2010

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 47 Source: IMF DOTS, 2009, 2011

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 48 Source: IMF DOTS, 2009, 2011

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 49 Indonesia: Export Partners, 2010

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 50 Indonesia: Import Partners, 2010

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 51 Source: IMF DOTS, 2009, 2011

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 52 Source: IMF DOTS, 2009, 2011

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 53 Laos: Export Partners, 2010

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 54 Laos: Import Partners, 2010

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 55 Source: IMF DOTS, 2009, 2011

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 56 Source: IMF DOTS, 2009, 2011

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 57 Philippines: Export Partners, 2010

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 58 Philippines: Import Partners, 2010

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 59 Source: IMF DOTS, 2009, 2011

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 60 Source: IMF DOTS, 2009, 2011

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 61 Malaysia: Export Partners, 2010

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 62 Malaysia: Import Partners, 2010

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 63 Source: IMF DOTS, 2009, 2011

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 64 Source: IMF DOTS, 2009, 2011

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 65 China: Export Partners 2010

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 66 China: Import Partners, 2010

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 67 Japan: Export Partners, 2010

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 68 Japan: Import Partners, 2010

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 69 Singapore: Export Partners, 2010

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 70 Singapore: Import Partners, 2010

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 71 Thailand: Export Partners, 2010

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 72 Thailand: Import Partners, 2010

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 73 Vietnam: Export Partners, 2010

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 74 Vietnam: Import Partners, 2010

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 75 Cambodia: Export Partners, 2010

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 76 Cambodia: Import Partners, 2010

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 77 Brunei: Export Partners, 2010

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 78 Brunei: Import Partners, 2010

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 79 Soft Power Joseph Nye, 1990 Foreign Policy Article 软实力 Confucius Institutes, Chinese Language Instruction, Youth Volunteers, Foreign Aid, Trade, Investment But Does it Work?

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 80 Confucius Institutes 30 in Southeast Asia: Indonesia: 7 Singapore: 2 Myanmar: 2 Malaysia: 2 Philippines: 3 Thailand: 12 Cambodia: 1 Laos: 1

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. 81