Will Asia be Dominated by an Aggressive China in the Future? GROUP 8 Nancy, Jefrey, Alice 2014.8.8

Back to dominance China has dominated Asia for thousands of years, until the Industrial Revolution in the 18th century. Today, with its impressive economic figures, and great assets (especially population), it is expected to replace the Britain of 19th century, U.S. of the 20 the century, to lead another century of Asia, China is already the second largest economy in the world after the United States, it is estimates to surpass the American economy in size from as soon as 2016 to as “distant” as 2028l. (Wall Street Journal), its capital GDP will catch up with the U.S. That would imply a massive shift in the global balance of power.

Economic hegemony in Asia China has already signed three FTAs with Asian countries, that include China-ASEAN FTA, China-Pakistan FTA and China- Singapore FTA. China-South Korea FTA is expected to be signed in the end of this year. The others FTAs under considerations include China-South Korea-Japan FTA and China-India Regional Trade Agreement.  China is already the biggest trading partner of India (49.5 billion, 8.7% share of total trade, 2014 figure), Japan (301.9 billion, following by 185.4 of United States), Taiwan (export 27.1 % of total trade, import 16.1% of total trade), Korea (export 23%, import 16%), ASEAN (443.6 billion USD).

Trade change between China and ASEAN from 2008 to 2012

Shifting international influence The U.S. is bigger than its allies in terms of population and in terms of GDP, that it can heavily influence policy on many dimensions — not only economic policy, regulatory policy, even stretching into politics and certainly military aspects. This really dictates the world we live in China perhaps is expected to follow the steps of the U.S. Many suspect it want to re-establish an updated tribute system.  it left the tributaries’ domestic politics alone (even in the closest tributary, Korea), and exerted only mild influence over foreign policy. That sounds an awful lot like what the U.S. already does in Latin America and Europe.

America’s dilemma China’s leaders still have to persuade neighbours that their ambitions are not expansionist.  China is trying to unsettle American alliances, for example, South Korea (FTA is expected to sign at the end of this year, and collective stance to ). To deter China’s ambition is increasingly unlikely. India is hesitant. Southeast Asia wants to trade with China and grows with its rise. South Korea is likely to align with China to conquer Japan and vice versa. That leaves Japan, Taiwan, and the U.S, but Japan has been struggling for decades, and the U.S. is overextended.

Alliances: TPP and RCEP

Total US trade with selected Asian partners

Asia’s merchandise trade by region (percentage)

Evolution of regional production networks