Nanotechnology: What Will It Mean? Ralph Merkle January 2001

2 Outline Introduction Visions of good, visions of harm Guidelines to principled development

3 Introduction Nanotechnology in a few decades will: –Bring medical nanobots, smaller than a cell, that: cure cancer, heart failure, old age. –make our times look the way we view medieval times: Everyone who dies pre-nano will be thought to have lived briefly & in poverty. Pollution will be gone (unclear) Molecular manufacture will have no chemical side effects.

4 Introduction … In the early 80s, Eric Drexler published Engines of Creation –Scientists were skeptical. –Science was telling us: nanotechnology is “unavoidable”. Computer technology points the way: –ICs are now sub-micron feature length –Why not other kinds of products? In 2000, 10 6 $ are being spent on nanotech development.

5 Outline Introduction Visions of good, visions of harm Guidelines to principled development

6 Visions of good, visions of harm Some people (Bill Joy) recently, publicly, & belatedly noted: Nano is dangerous! Drexler discussed the dangers extensively as far back ’86 & ’88 (A Dialog on Dangers) Bill Joy advocates “relinquishing” nano research.

7 Visions of good, visions of harm … Doing so is problematic –The attraction of wealth, glory, & strategic advantage are great. –The research will continue, underground & thus w/o oversight. –The advantages of nano will be lost to the obedient.

8 Visions of good, visions of harm … What are the kinds of concerns? –Deliberate abuse –Accidents Deliberate abuse (by a small group or nation) –Could cause catastrophic harm –Best prevented by clear understanding of technology: Its offensive capabilities Countermeasures to those capabilities (The good guys don’t always win.) –Lack of clear understanding puts innocents at the mercy of those who disregard laws.

9 Visions of good, visions of harm … Accidents: –a self-replicating machine could replicate itself unchecked, converting the biosphere into copies of itself. The entire earth biosphere might vanish in 1 day. –Merkle: replicating nanobots are no more likely to be like living things (threatening the biosphere), than existing computers are. (Hmmm. What about suicidal misanthropes? )

10 Visions of good, visions of harm … Accidents … Merkle gives an example of robotic arms that make robotic arms. –They are not autonomous. –If you cut off their power, they stop, just like robots do on a larger scale. (But, what if an autonomous nanobot was made, deriving its energy from its surrounding (e.g., photosynthesis)?)

11 Outline Introduction Visions of good, visions of harm Guidelines to principled development

12 Guidelines to principled development The Foresight Institute (founded by Eric Drexler, I believe) has draft guidelines for safe molecular manufacturing.

13 Guidelines to principled development For example: –Replicators are incapable of replication in natural uncontrolled environment. –Replication depends on artificial energy source or components. –Use encryption & error-detection to prevent alteration of their blueprints. –Etc.

14 Guidelines to principled development The upside potential of nano is staggering. We cannot stop all people from developing it. Focus on doing so responsibly.