Outcomes of screening mammography among women aged 40 to 43 Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences Toronto, Canada (2006)

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Outcomes of screening mammography among women aged 40 to 43 Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences Toronto, Canada (2006)

Selection criteria All women age 40 – 43 resident in Ontario on January 1, OHIP (medicare) beneficiaries: -all permanent residents + refugees - no premium / deductible for beneficiaries No history of breast cancer prior to this date Breast screening program recruits from age 50. Canadian Task Force on Preventive Health Care: Insufficient evidence to recommend for or against screening younger women.

Study design: case—cohort Entire underlying population at risk All deaths Random sample Study population Time to death analysis, corrected s.e.

Ascertainment of cases (deaths) Multiple hits: Ontario Cancer Registry (Registrar General of Ontario) Hospital database OHIP (medicare) eligibility roster

Ascertainment of breast cancer ICD-9 174xx registered by Ontario Cancer Registry diagnosis date between January 1, 1995 and December 31, ,043 / 370,130 Intended to be invasive only, however DCIS is misclassified as invasive Not an issue for primary analysis because ‘cases’ are ‘deaths’

Sampling subcohort from entire population Random sample 20,000 / 387,130 (there is no method of calculating sample size requirements for case-cohort design)

Case-cohort study population Random sample, alive 19,677 (Random sample, breast ca alive) (174) (Breast cancer cases, alive) (3,262) Deaths 5,913 (Deaths, breast cancer cases) (607) Case-cohort population 25,590 (Total breast cancer cases) (4,043) Underlying population 387,130

Bilateral mammography utilization among underlying population Bilateral mammography is an insured service available to any woman of any age on request of physician 47.1% one or more eligible bilateral mammograms (no breast procedure or breast visit during preceding 11 months) by December 31, 2002.

Exposure and primary outcome Exposure: Periodic bilateral mammography (no breast imaging or biopsy or procedure or physician visit with breast code within 11 months) January 1, 1995 to December 31, 2002 Primary outcome: Death (all causes) January 1, 1995 to December 31, 2004

Ascertainment of periodic screening (2 or more episodes = periodic) among study population OHIP (medicare) billing claims Original reports photocopied and coded No breast imaging / biopsy / surgery / medical visit with breast code within 11 months preceding Not more than 16 months following preceding screening mammogram

Ascertainment of periodic screening (2 or more episodes = periodic) among study population 2.1% of subcohort (random sample) 14.4% of cases (women who died) 25.2% of women who developed breast cancer 15.5% of women who developed breast cancer and died

Ascertainment of covariates OHIP (medicare) eligibility roster: Year of birth Residence code as at January 1, 1995: Neighbourhood income quintile (adjusted for region) Urban / rural distinction Hospital database: January 1, 1990 – December 31, 1994 ICD-9 diagnosis codes >> comorbidity score

Secondary exposures and outcomes (not for primary analysis of death) All breast biopsies and surgeries regardless of pathology (Hospital database > institution, dates, codes for abstraction / photocopy operative and pathology reports) Family history of breast cancer (women with breast cancer and / or breast surgery chart abstraction) Radiation therapy, chemotherapy, hormone therapy for women with breast cancer

Case—cohort mortality analysis (all cause) (multivariate, s.e. corrected for design) Periodic screening mammography 2.09 (1.92,2.27) Year of birth(per year 1951 >> 1954)0.94 (0.92, 0.96) Urban residence (vs rural) 0.88 (0.82, 0.96) Neighbourhood income quintile 0.91 (0.90, 0.93) (per 1 quintile increase, low to high) Comorbidity score (per 1 unit increase) 1.70 (1.66, 1.74)

Case—cohort mortality analysis (all cause) (multivariate, s.e. corrected for design) among women diagnosed with breast cancer Periodic screening mammography 0.64 (0.49, 0.82) Year of birth(per year 1951 >> 1954)1.03 (0.92, 1.11) Urban residence (vs rural) 0.97 (0.74, 1.26) Neighbourhood income quintile 0.94 (0.88, 0.99) (per 1 quintile increase, low to high) Comorbidity score (per 1 unit increase) 0.93 (0.66, 1.31)