Title. ON THE ECONOMIC, BUSINESS AND POLITICAL CLIMATE Roger Tutterow, Ph.D. Coles College of Business Kennesaw State University

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title

ON THE ECONOMIC, BUSINESS AND POLITICAL CLIMATE Roger Tutterow, Ph.D. Coles College of Business Kennesaw State University College Park, GA February 18, 2015

GDP vs. Final Sales

Average GDP Growth Rate 4.7

ISM’s “PMI”

Consumer Sentiment

CONSUMER SENTIMENT

Leading Economic Indicators (source: Conference Board, % change in last 6 months)

Change in Employment (non-farm payrolls)

State Employment (Jobs Lost)

State Employment (Jobs Added)

State Employment (Net Change)

Employment: Georgia

Level of Employment: ATL

Change in Employment: ATL

Location Quotient: Atlanta

Location Quotient: South Metro vs Atlanta

Job Loss by Sector: Recession

Job Growth by Sector: Recovery

Location Quotient: South Metro vs Atlanta

Crude Oil (Spot Price, WTI)

Federal Funds Rate Time to Move Near?

10-Year Treasury Bond

“Five Little PIIGS”

FX: Major Trading Partners

Bank Credit Loosening?

Bankers on C&I Loan Demand?

Construction Spending

Construction Spending: Private

Non-Residential Construction

US Housing Starts: SF and Total (12 month moving average)

US Housing Starts: Multi-family (12 month moving average)

ATL Housing Starts: SF and Total (12 month moving average)

ATL Housing Starts: Multi-family (12 month moving average)

The Demographics: Boom & Bust

Home Prices & CPI

CS/S&P Home Price Index (FROM PEAK TO NOVEMBER 2014)

Case Shiller: Atlanta & US-20

Case Shiller: Atlanta by Tier

Household RE Equity (in $ Billions)

Home Investor Purchases

Investor Activity

Currents Issues in Fiscal Affairs Federal: – “Bush Cuts” < 400K made permanent – Government default avoided in 2011 & 2013 – what about 2015? – In Play: Affordable Care Act, Keystone, Dodd-Frank, EPA, NLRB, SCOTUS States: – Bond ratings preserved during downturn – Tax Reform Initiatives in other States – Recent gains in manufacturing facilities due to “reshoring” – SE states domination biz location ranking Local: – RE valuation and revenues rising – Fiscal distress moderating

ON THE ECONOMIC, BUSINESS AND POLITICAL CLIMATE Roger Tutterow, Ph.D. Coles College of Business Kennesaw State University College Park, GA February 18, 2015