The Global Demographic Future: How We Got To Here—And Where We May Be In 2035 Nicholas Eberstadt Wendt Chair in Political Economy American Enterprise Institute Gaidar Foundation Moscow June 2015

Outline of Presentation The Population Explosion—Was Malthus Right? Are Natural Resources Becoming More Scarce? Human Resources: The Health Explosion/Education Explosion/ Wealth Explosion Family Planning And The Demographic Future Global/Regional Outlook For The World To 2035: (With Breakouts for China / Russia / India /Japan / Western Europe / and USA)

U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base. (Date Accessed: April 1, 2015)

US Census Bureau, “Total Midyear Population for the World: ” “Historical Estimates of World Population,” Summary: Lower Estimate (Date Accessed: April 1, 2015)

Note: Before PPI deflation, GYCPI Indexed to the arithmetic mean at 100; PPI indexed to 1982=100; not seasonally adjusted GYCPI – Grilli and Yang data, provided by Stephan Pfazenfeller, Updated to 2013, (Date Accessed: April 1, 2015) and Federal Reserve Economic Data, or=%23FFFFFF&txtcolor=% &ts=8&preserve_ratio=true&id=PPIACO&transformation=lin&scale=Left&range=Max&cosd= &coed= &line_color=%230000FF&link_values=&mark_type=NONE&mw=4&line_style=Solid&lw=1&vintage_date= &revision_date= &mma=0&nd=&ost=&oet=&fml=a# (Date Accessed: April 1, 2015).

Note: Before PPI deflation, GYCPI Indexed to the arithmetic mean at 100; PPI indexed to 1982=100; not seasonally adjusted GYCPI – Grilli and Yang data, provided by Stephan Pfazenfeller, Updated to 2013, (Date Accessed: April 1, 2015) and Federal Reserve Economic Data, or=%23FFFFFF&txtcolor=% &ts=8&preserve_ratio=true&id=PPIACO&transformation=lin&scale=Left&range=Max&cosd= &coed= &line_color=%230000FF&link_values=&mark_type=NONE&mw=4&line_style=Solid&lw=1&vintage_date= &revision_date= &mma=0&nd=&ost=&oet=&fml=a# (Date Accessed: April 1, 2015).

Note: Before PPI deflation, GYCPI Indexed to the arithmetic mean at 100; PPI indexed to 1982=100; not seasonally adjusted GYCPI – Grilli and Yang data, provided by Stephan Pfazenfeller, Updated to 2013, (Date Accessed: April 1, 2015) and Federal Reserve Economic Data, or=%23FFFFFF&txtcolor=% &ts=8&preserve_ratio=true&id=PPIACO&transformation=lin&scale=Left&range=Max&cosd= &coed= &line_color=%230000FF&link_values=&mark_type=NONE&mw=4&line_style=Solid&lw=1&vintage_date= &revision_date= &mma=0&nd=&ost=&oet=&fml=a# (Date Accessed: April 1, 2015).

GYCPIF-MUV – Grilli and Yang data, provided by Stephan Pfazenfeller, Updated to 2013, (Date Accessed: April 1, 2015)

GYCPI-MUV – Grilli and Yang data, provided by Stephan Pfazenfeller, Updated to 2013, (Date Accessed: April 1, 2015)

Source: BP, “Crude oil prices historical data,” available at: by-energy-type/oil/oil-reserves.html; 2015 data: “Trading Conditions update,” available at: conditions-update.html. by-energy-type/oil/oil-reserves.html

Source: BP, “Crude oil prices historical data,” available at: by-energy-type/oil/oil-reserves.html; 2015 data: “Trading Conditions update,” available at: conditions-update.html ; and Robert Sahr, “Inflation Conversion Factors,” Oregon State University, available at: by-energy-type/oil/oil-reserves.htmlhttp:// conditions-update.html

CCPI CCPI’ ---- GYCPI Real Price Trends for Natural Resources: Source: David Harvey et al., “Long-Run Commodity Prices and Economic Growth: ,” (University of Nottingham, 2014), available at: Including Oil Without Oil

Ultra-Longterm Real Price Trends: Natural Resources Indices, CCPI CCPI’ Source: David Harvey et al., “Long-Run Commodity Prices and Economic Growth: ,” (University of Nottingham, 2014), available at: Including Oil Without Oil

Note: Before PPI deflation, GYCPI Indexed to the arithmetic mean at 100; PPI indexed to 1982=100; not seasonally adjusted GYCPI – Grilli and Yang data, provided by Stephan Pfazenfeller, Updated to 2013, (Date Accessed: April 1, 2015) and Federal Reserve Economic Data, or=%23FFFFFF&txtcolor=% &ts=8&preserve_ratio=true&id=PPIACO&transformation=lin&scale=Left&range=Max&cosd= &coed= &line_color=%230000FF&link_values=&mark_type=NONE&mw=4&line_style=Solid&lw=1&vintage_date= &revision_date= &mma=0&nd=&ost=&oet=&fml=a# (Date Accessed: April 1, 2015). World Population Data: US Census Bureau, “Total Midyear Population for the World: ” Estimates of World Population,” Summary: Lower Estimate (Date Accessed: April 1, 2015)

Real Global GDP: (Angus Maddison and Maddison Project estimates, trillions) Sources: For : Angus Maddison, “Statistics on World Population, GDP and Per Capita GDP, AD,” Table 2: GDP, available at (Date Accessed: February 26, 2013);; For 2009 and 2010: derived from per capita GDP estimates for The Maddison-Project, version, and annual population estimates from UN Population Division, “World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, Excel Tables - Population Data, available at (Data Accessed: April 6, 2015).

Angus Maddison, “Statistics on World Population, GDP and Per Capita GDP, AD,” Table 2: GDP, available at (Date Accessed: February 26, 2013) and GYCPI/MUV – Grilli and Yang data, provided by Stephan Pfazenfeller, Updated to 2013, (Date Accessed: April 1, 2015) World GDP Commodity Price Index (GYCPI/MUV)

Source: The Maddison-Project, version. (Date Accessed: April 1, 2015) Africa Asia World Latin America

The Worldwide Health Explosion: Estimated Life Expectancy at Birth, 1950/ /10 (UN Population Division estimates, both sexes, years) Major area, region, country Absolute Change (years) % Change World % More Developed Regions % Less Developed Regions % Least Developed Countries % --Asia % --Latin America and the Caribbean % --Sub-Saharan Africa % --Russian Federation % United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects 2012 Revision, (Date Accessed: April 2, 2015).

The Worldwide Health Explosion--continued Estimated Infant Mortality Rates, 1950/ /10 (UN Population Division estimates, both sexes, deaths per 1,000 live births) United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects 2012 Revision, / (Date Accessed: April 2, 2015) / Major area, region, country Absolute Change (years) % Change World % More Developed Regions % Less Developed Regions % Least Developed Countries % --Asia % --Latin America and the Caribbean % --Sub-Saharan Africa % --Russian Federation %

Notes: The number of deaths per 100,000 infants ages 0-1 was 19,722 in 1751, and 206 in Source: Human Mortality Database. Sweden, Total (1x1) Life tables, available at Accessed August 18, 2014.

Source: Calculations based on author’s calculations derived from data available at: Human Mortality Database. Sweden, Total (1x1) Life tables, available at Accessed August 29, Gini Coefficient= *(Life Expectancy) ( ) (275.89) R-squared: Number of Observation: 261

Source: Figure from Anand and Nanthikesan, “A Complication of Length-of-Life: Distribution Measures for Abridged Life Tables,” Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies Working Paper Series, Vol. 11, No. 4. April 2001.

Sources: All estimates except Italy and Sweden from S. Anand and S. Nanthikesan, “A Complication of Length-of-Life: Distribution Measures for Abridged Life Tables,” Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies Working Paper Series, Vol. 11, No. 4. April Sweden (2011) and Italy (2009) are based on author’s calculations derived from: Human Mortality Database. Italy and Sweden, Total (1x1) Life tables, available at Accessed August 18, Approximate Global Life Expectancy, 2000 Approximate Global Life Expectancy, 1900 Italy (1872) Italy (2009) Sweden (2011) Sweden (1751)

Region (no. of countries) World (146)Average Years of Schooling (Female) Average Years of Schooling (Male) Gender ratio (female/male %) All Developing (122)Average Years of Schooling (Female) Average Years of Schooling (Male) Gender ratio (female/male %) Middle East/North Africa (18)Average Years of Schooling (Female) Average Years of Schooling (Male) Gender ratio (female/male %) Sub-Saharan Africa (33)Average Years of Schooling (Female) Average Years of Schooling (Male) Gender ratio (female/male %) Latin America and the Caribbean (25) Average Years of Schooling (Female) Average Years of Schooling (Male) Gender ratio (female/male %) The Global Education Explosion Estimated Educational Attainment by Sex, (Barro-Lee estimates, population age 15 and over, 146 countries) Barro, Robert J. and Lee, Jong-Wha; “A New Data Set of Educational Attainment in the World, 1950–2010,” Journal of Development Economics 104 (2013) p , Table 4 pg. 189.

Estimated World Adult Education Profile, : (Barro-Lee estimates, World Population Aged 15+,146 Countries) Barro, Robert J. and Lee, Jong-Wha; “A New Data Set of Educational Attainment in the World, 1950–2010,” Journal of Development Economics 104 (2013) p , Table 4 pg. 189.

Wail, Benaabdelaali; Said, Hanchane; Abdelhak, Kamal; “A New Data Set of Educational Inequality in the World, 1950–2010: Gini Index of Education by Age Group,” Figure.A.2, pg. 23, 2011, Journal of Economic Literature Gini Index for 15+ MYS by region, gender and year

Source: Mean Years of Schooling: Robert Barro and Jong-Wha Lee, “A New Data Set of Educational Attainment in the World, ,” (April 2010); Gini: Benaabdelaali Wail, Hanchane Said and Kamal Abdelhak, “A New Data Set of Educational Inequality in the World, : Gini Index of Education by Age Group” (August 2011).

Total global household wealth , by region (estimated, in current $trillions) Source: Anthony Shorrocks, James Davies, and Rodrigo Lluberas, Global Wealth Databook 2014, Credit Suisse Research Institute (Zurich, Switzerland: Credit Suisse Group, 2014), available at: DB12817E02. North America Europe Asia-Pacific ChinaLatin America IndiaAfrica

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, “Food supply – Balance Sheets,” (Date Accessed: April 2, 2015). Least Developed Asia

World Bank, PovcalNet, “Regional Aggregation using 2005 PPP,” (Date Accessed: April 1, 2015)

Source: Literacy Rates: UNESCO Institute for Statistics - UNESCO UIS, November 21, 2011; TFR: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, November 21, 2011.

What Determines Family Size? Contraceptive Prevalence, vs. Total Fertility Rates, Source: Contraceptive prevalence, : UNICEF "The State of the World's Children 2009.” November 21, 2011; TFR: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, The 2010 Revision, November 21, 2011.

What Determines Family Size? Per Capita GDP 2005 vs. Total Fertility Rates, Source: Angus Maddison, “Per Capita GDP PPP (in 1990 Geary-Khamis dollars),” Historical Statistics for the World Economy: AD, table 3, (accessed November 21, 2011); Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, accessed November 21, 2011.

Source: Macro International Inc, MEASURE DHS STATcompiler. February 24, Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, November 21, What Determines Family Size? Total Fertility Rates vs. Wanted Total Fertility Rates, c. 2005

No Clear Relationship Contraceptive Prevalence and “Excess Fertility”, 2000/10 Source: Contraceptive prevalence, : UNICEF "The State of the World's Children 2012.“; Wanted TFR and TFR: Macro International Inc, MEASURE DHS STATcompiler.

World Development Indicators, World Bank, 2013, (Date Accessed: February 14, 2013)

World Development Indicators, World Bank, 2013, (Date Accessed: February 14, 2013)

Total Fertility Rates versus GDP per Capita (exchange rate): 1960 vs Correlations Total Fertility Rate (births per woman) GDP per capita (constant 2000 US$) World Development Indicators, World Bank, 2013, (Date Accessed: February 14, 2013)

DRAFT ONLY Source: GDP and Life Expectancy: World Bank, World Development Indicators, available at accessed September 15, Urbanization: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2014). World Urbanization Prospects: The 2014 Revision, available at: accessed August 15, Education: Author’s calculations derived from Robert Barro and Jong-Wha Lee, "A New Data Set of Educational Attainment in the World, ," Journal of Development Economics, vol 104, (April 2010): Available at: Accessed August 15, North Korea data: Author’s calculations derived from Central Bureau of Statistics, 2008 DPRK National Census (Pyongyang, DPRK: 2009). available at: Economic Freedom Index: Fraser Institute, Economic Freedom Network, available at: accessed September 15,

Copyright Nicholas Eberstadt 42 Note: Total global manpower change for was approximately 1.3 billion. Source: US Census Bureau International Data Base, available at accessed April 16, Total projected global change, 2015/35: approx. 800 million

Source: United States Census Bureau, International Data Base, “Mid-year population by single year age groups,” available at: accessed on April 15, Copyright Nicholas Eberstadt 43

Two Hundred Fifty Million Shades of Gray Projected percentage population 65+: Urban and rural China, Source: Zeng et al

Source: Department of Population and Employment Statistics National Bureau of Statistics, “China Population Census: Tabulation of the 2010 Population Census of the People’s Republic of China” (Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2012). China’s Rural “Labor Reserve”: Already Cherry-Picked Age/Sex/Education Structures for Urban China vs. Rural China, 2010 Urban Rural Copyright Nicholas Eberstadt 45

46 Source: Department of Population and Employment Statistics National Bureau of Statistics, “China Population Census: Tabulation of the 2010 Population Census of the People’s Republic of China” (Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2012). Copyright Nicholas Eberstadt

Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, “Life expectancy at birth – both sexes,” World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, (accessed on April 30, 2015). 47 Copyright Nicholas Eberstadt

Coldest Country In Africa? Male Probability at Age 20 of Living until a Given Age: Russia vs. Africa, 2012 (WHO Estimates) Probability Age Source: World Health Organization, Health Statistics and Health Information Systems, Accessed: April 11, 2014) 48 Copyright Nicholas Eberstadt

Annual USPTO patents awarded : Select US States and Russia Source: Patents By Country, State, and Year - Utility Patents(December 2013). (Date Accessed: April 11, 2014) Neck and Neck with Alabama Arkansas 49 Copyright Nicholas Eberstadt

Source: United States Census Bureau, International Data Base, “Mid-year population by single year age groups,” available at: accessed on April 17, Copyright Nicholas Eberstadt 50

Copyright Nicholas Eberstadt Source: Derived from Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (2015). Wittgenstein Centre Data Explorer Version 1.2. available at accessed on April 30, Half A Century Behind China Educational Profile of Working Age (15-64) Populations: China vs. India, (estimated and projected) 51

Source: United States Census Bureau, International Data Base, “Mid-year population by single year age groups,” available at: accessed on April 17, Copyright Nicholas Eberstadt 52

Sayonara Japan: Childless and Non-grandchild Ratio among Women Medium Projections, Cohorts born “Work Session on Demographic Projections.” Figure 7. Pg Eurostat. Methodologies and Working Papers epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_OFFPUB/KS-RA /EN/KS-RA EN.PDF (Accessed: Jan 15, 2013) 53

Source: European Commission, Eurostat, “Demographic balance and crude rates”. Available at accessed on November 10, Copyright Nicholas Eberstadt 54

Source: OECD Stat Extracts, “Demography and Population: DIOC – Immigrants by citizenship and age,” available at: accessed on October 27, Copyright Nicholas Eberstadt 55

Source: Barro, Robert and Jong-Wha Lee, April 2010, "A New Data Set of Educational Attainment in the World, " Journal of Development Economics, vol 104, pp Available at: Copyright Nicholas Eberstadt 56

Note: Germany data from are OECD estimates for West Germany are for all Germany. Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, OECD StatExtracts, “Average annual hours actually worked per worker,” available at accessed August 13, Copyright Nicholas Eberstadt 57

How Does An Aging Society Get Richer? Illustrative Patterns of Consumption and Labor Earnings by Age Labor earnings Total consumption Public Private Source: Ronald D. Lee, Global Population Aging and Its Economic Consequences (Washington, D.C.: AEI Press, 2007). 58

Source: United States Census Bureau, International Data Base, “Mid-year population by single year age groups,” available at: accessed on April 17, Copyright Nicholas Eberstadt 59

Neither working nor seeking work Working Unemployed / Seeking work Copyright Nicholas Eberstadt Checked Out In The Prime Of Life 60

Source: Sarah Shannon et al., Growth in the U.S. Felon and Ex-Prisoner Population, , (Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, Washington, DC, 2011). Ex-Con Explosion Estimated Population of Felons and Ex-felons: USA,