Xuexi Tie Xu Tang,Fuhai Geng, and Chunsheng Zhao Shanghai Meteorological Bureau Atmospheric Chemistry Division/NCAR Peking University Understand and Forecast the Impact of Economical Development on Air Quality in Shanghai (MIRAGE – Shanghai)

Motivations: Motivations: Large Cities are rapidly growing (cluster) Effect on air pollutants (regional  global) Effect on climate (regional  global)

Shanghai

Shanghai is under rapid development Shanghai is under rapid development Auto 500% Building 350%

The impacts on environment The impacts on environment High Pollutants around Large Cities High Pollutants around Large Cities The impacts on environment The impacts on environment High Pollutants around Large Cities High Pollutants around Large Cities Shanghai

The worst is not over (yet) ! The worst is not over (yet) ! Richter et al, Increase in tropospheric nitrogen over China observed from space, Nature, v437, p , 2005

Zhao, Tie, Ling, GRL, 2006

What is the future of Ozone ?? Potential high ozone ?? What is the future of Ozone ?? Potential high ozone ??

Scientific Objectives Understand the current ozone in YRD Understand the current ozone in YRD Forecast the future ozone in YRD Forecast the future ozone in YRD

Understand the current ozone in YRD Ozone Formation Precursors (NOx, VOCs, CO, OH) Precursors (NOx, VOCs, CO, OH) Effectors (aerosols, clouds,..) Effectors (aerosols, clouds,..) Products (CH 2 O, HNO 3, PAN) Products (CH 2 O, HNO 3, PAN) Impacts on Economical Development on Ozone Industrial Emissions Industrial Emissions Biogenic Emissions Biogenic Emissions Impacts of Aerosols on Ozone Impacts of Surrounding Areas on Ozone Impacts of Meteorology on Ozone

Field measurements (multi-measurements) (with ACD/NCAR collaborations; MIRAGE-SH) Field measurements (multi-measurements) (with ACD/NCAR collaborations; MIRAGE-SH) (1)Ozone and precursors O 3, CO, NOx, Anthropogenic VOCs, Biogenic VOCs OH, HO 2, RO 2 (2) The products of oxidation Organic carbon products (such as CH 2 O), HNO 3, PAN NOy (3) Radiative parameters Aerosols, UV flux, clouds, single albedo (4) Meteorological parameters * By Shanghai; By ACD; By both

The Measurement sits

The current measurement instruments - I (Shanghai ) The current measurement instruments - I (Shanghai ) Ozone, CO, NOx instruments (1) Ozone, CO, NOx instruments (2) Ozone sounding (2) VOC species Canister, 105 Species Canister, 105 Species (3) Radiative instruments UV UV (4) Aerosol instruments AOD – Sunphotometer AOD – Sunphotometer SC –Nephelometer SC –Nephelometer BC - Magee AE31 BC - Magee AE31 PM - GRIMM180(PM1,PM2.5,PM10) PM - GRIMM180(PM1,PM2.5,PM10) (5) lidar (5) lidar Aerosol profiles Aerosol profiles

The current measurement instruments

The current measurement instruments - II (US ACD & Universities) The current measurement instruments - II (US ACD & Universities) (1) Ozone (2) Nitrogen species NOx, HONO, HNO 3, PAN, TPAN NOx, HONO, HNO 3, PAN, TPAN (3) VOC species On-line measurements of VOCs (PTRMS) On-line measurements of VOCs (PTRMS) (4) Radicals OH, HO 2, RO 2 OH, HO 2, RO 2 (5) Oxidation products CH 2 O, PAN, HNO 3 CH 2 O, PAN, HNO 3 (6) Photolysis rates J[O 3 ], J[NO 2 ], …. J[O 3 ], J[NO 2 ], …. (7) Aerosols Composition (sulfate, nitrate, ….) Composition (sulfate, nitrate, ….) Size distributions (from nm to µm) Size distributions (from nm to µm)

Why need more measurements - I (US ACD & Universities) Why need more measurements - I (US ACD & Universities) Understand the NOx/VOCs emission ratio Understand the NOx/VOCs emission ratio OH + NO 2  HNO 3 (NOx oxidation) OH + NO 2  HNO 3 (NOx oxidation) OH + VOC  CH 2 O (VOC oxidation) OH + VOC  CH 2 O (VOC oxidation) OH + VOC + NOx  PAN (NOx and VOC oxidation) OH + VOC + NOx  PAN (NOx and VOC oxidation) The ratios of HNO 3 /NOy and PAN/NOy are the indicators of the ratio of NO X /VOC emission The ratios of HNO 3 /NOy and PAN/NOy are the indicators of the ratio of NO X /VOC emission

Why need more measurements - II (US ACD & Universities) Why need more measurements - II (US ACD & Universities) The ratios of HNO 3 /NOy and PAN/NOy are the indicators of the ratio NOX/VOC emission MC (NOx/VOC = 0.1) NY (NOx/VOC=0.4)

Why the ratio of NOx/VOC is important? NO+O 3  NO 2 NO 2 +hv  O 3

Chemical Models WRF-Chem Model NCAR – MM model Chemical Models WRF-Chem Model NCAR – MM model

WRF-Chem model WRF-Chem is a newly developed model has several advance features, For example: (1) Online coupled dynamical-chemical-aerosol model (In able to study the feedbacks between climate and chemistry) (2) Nested model (In able to study in and out flow round the SH city) (3) Interaction between aerosols and gas-phase chemistry (In able to study the effect of aerosols on ozone

To address scientific issues (1) Contributions from various anthropogenic emissions (power plants, auto, etc) (2) Contributions from anthropogenic and biogenic emissions (3) Impacts of aerosols on the formation of ozone (4) Changes of traffic on ozone formation (diurnal, and spatial variation (e.g., Weekend effect )

Ozone Forecasting (1) To predict the ozone concentrations (validated with measurements to improve model) (2) To assess the methodology to reduce ozone concentrations (reduction of emissions; changes in traffic pattern) (3) To estimate the cost /benefit ratio (4) To study the potential ozone concentration (preventing high ozone problem in Shanghai)

Key issues – Improve emissions (1)Based on the Street’s Inventory (1/6 degree) (2)Update the surface cover of Shanghai (3)Update the traffic distribution (4)Update the population distribution (5)Update the point source distribution (6)Update emission index, especially for traffic

A Fully Interactive Model (A future environment model) A Fully Interactive Model (A future environment model)

WRF-ChemEmissions Chemicals(ozone)Aerosols Traditional Model

InteractiveEnvironmentalModel WRF-Chem Impact Model HealthClimateagriculture Future Environmental Forecast Model (FEFM)

Applications of the FEFM (1)To forecast and prevent potential high ozone in Shanghai high ozone in Shanghai (2) To help for city planning (3)To assess environmental changes on air quality and human’s health air quality and human’s health