CHINA AND SYSTEMS THINKING EXERCISE

OVERSHOOT CAUSES & SYMPTOMS CAUSES: SYMPTOMS: ACCELERATING CHANGE - Exponential Population Growth -Exponential Industrial Growth CAPACITY LIMITS - Extraction Limits -Absorptive Limits -Erosion Loops/Thresholds FEEDBACK DELAYS - Distorted, Noisy, Denied, Ignored, Imperfect Signals - Policy Delay/Confusion RESOURCE DEPLETION RISING WASTE/POLLUTION RISING EXTRACTION COSTS LOSS OF NATURAL SERVICES LOWER QUALITY RESOURCES NATURAL DISASTERS CRUMBLING INFRASTRUCTURE NATURAL RESOURCE CONFLICT HOSTILE AREA RESOURCES MILITARIZED ACQUISITION INCREASING DEBT RELIANCE ERODING GOALS FOR HEALTH SUBSIDIES FOR EXTRACTION SUBSIDIES TO RESOURCE USE “DESIRED” TO “AFFORDABLE” ELITE RESOURCE CAPTURE Meadows, Randers &Meadows, Limits to Growth, 2004

TRANSITION TO SUSTAINABILITY: HOW? One possibilityAnother possibility Global carrying capacity Human ecological footprint Human ecological footprint Global carrying capacity

TWO TYPES OF LOOPS REINFORCING POSITIVE DEVIATION- AMPLIFYING SELF-CHANGING MORPHOGENETIC EVEN NUMBER OF NEGATIVE OR OPPOSITE LINKS BALANCING NEGATIVE DEVIATION- COUNTERACTING SELF-REGULATING HOMEOSTATIC ODD NUMBER OF NEGATIVE OR OPPOSITE LINKS

REINFORCING (POSITIVE) FEEDBACK BIRTHS PER YEAR POPULATION S S (R)

BALANCING (NEGATIVE) FEEDBACK OPENING OF WARM WATER FAUCET SHOWER TEMPERATURE S S (B) DESIRED SHOWER TEMPERATURE O

The Future of China

China’s environmental problems are among the most severe of any major country, and are getting worse. The long list ranges from air pollution, biodiversity losses, cropland losses, desertification, disappearing wetlands, grassland degradation, and increasing scale and frequency of human- induced natural disasters, to invasive species, overgrazing, river flow cessation, salinization, soil erosion, trash accumula- tion, and water pollution and shortages. These…problems are causing enormous economic losses, social conflicts, and health problems within China…China’s large population, economy, and area also guarantee that its environmental problems will not remain a domestic issue but will spill over to the rest of the world, which is increasingly affected through sharing the same planet, oceans, and atmosphere with China, and which in turn affects China’s environment through globalization.” Jared Diamond, Collapse, 2005, p. 358

POVERTY TRANSPORT URBAN- IZATION ENERGY/ CO2 HEALTH WATER FOOD LAND ECONOMY POPULATION 1bn % Home % imports CHINA’S FUTURE

The Simulation

(optimizing) HUMAN WELFARE (broadly defined) (maintaining) LIFE SUPPORT SYSTEMS (integrity/ resilience) (ensuring) SOCIAL EQUITY (intra- & inter- generational) THE BIG ANSWER

CHINA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES HYPER- URBANIZATION RURAL- URBAN MIGRATION URBAN- RURAL INEQUALITY RURAL& URBAN POVERTY SOCIAL DISCONTENT POPULATION GROWTH DEMOCRACY DEMANDS SOCIAL WATER DEFICITS ENVIRONMENTAL AIR POLLUTION LAND/SOIL DEGRADATION PUBLIC ILL-HEALTH WATER POLLUTION CROPLAND LOSSES GRAIN HARVEST DECLINES ECONOMIC EXPONENTIAL ECONOMIC GROWTH WESTERN LIFE-STYLE DESIRE ENDEMIC CORRUPTION COAL/ CARBON DEPENDENCE UN/UNDER EMPLOYMENT ENERGY/ POWER DEMAND AUTO/ ROAD BOOM

What should China do over the next 10 years by spending$1,000,000,000,000 to avoid overshoot and become ecologically, socially, and economically sustainable by 2040? Prime Minister to deliver a “National Sustainability Plan” address to the world in one hour. The plan to become a sustainable nation should be based on the very best “systems thinking” possible pinpointing interventions that have the greatest potential for synergistically achieving sustainability. Good Luck!

The Analysis… if we had the time

ECONOMIC GROWTH x UN/UNDER EMPLOYMENT x COAL/CARBON DEPENDENCE x WESTERN LIFESTYLE DESIRE x ENERGY/POWER DEMAND x AUTO/ROAD BOOM x ENDEMIC CORRUPTION x HYPER-URBANIZATION x RURAL-URBAN MIGRATION x URBAN-RURAL INEQUITY x POPULATION GROWTH x RURAL/URBAN POVERTY x SOCIAL DISCONTENT x DEMOCRACY DEMANDS x WATER DEFICITS x AIR POLLUTION x LAND/SOIL DEGRADATION x WATER POLLUTION x PUBLIC ILL-HEALTH x CROPLAND LOSSES x GRAIN HARVEST DECLINES x TOTAL CONSEQUENCES TOTAL CAUSES TOTAL CONNECTIONS AS VARIABLES BELOW RISE: ECONOMIC GROWTHUN/UNDER EMPLOYMENTCOAL/CARBON DEPENDENCEWESTERN LIFE STYLE DESIREENERGY/POWER DEMANDAUTO/ROAD BOOMENDEMIC CORRUPTIONHYPER-URBANIZATIONRURAL-URBAM MIGRATIONURBAN-RURAL INEQUALITYPOPULATION GROWTHRURAL/URBAN POVERTYSOCIAL DISCONTENTDEMOCRACY DEMANDSWATER DEFICITSAIR POLLUTIONLAND/SOIL DEGRADATIONWATER POLLUTIONPUBLIC ILL-HEALTHCROPLAND LOSSESGRAIN HARVEST DECLINESTOTAL CAUSES VARIABLES TO THE RIGHT WILL TEND TO:

ECONOMIC GROWTH x = UN/UNDER EMPLOYMENT x COAL/CARBON DEPENDENCE x WESTERN LIFESTYLE DESIRE + x ENERGY/POWER DEMAND + x AUTO/ROAD BOOM x ENDEMIC CORRUPTION x HYPER-URBANIZATION x RURAL-URBAN MIGRATION x URBAN-RURAL INEQUALITY + + x POPULATION GROWTH x RURAL/URBAN POVERTY x SOCIAL DISCONTENT x DEMOCRACY DEMANDS x 6 WATER DEFICITS x AIR POLLUTION x LAND/SOIL DEGRADATION x WATER POLLUTION x PUBLIC ILL-HEALTH x 8 CROPLAND LOSSES x + 7 GRAIN HARVEST DECLINES x 6 TOTAL CONSEQUENCES TOTAL CAUSES TOTAL CONNECTIONS AS VARIABLES BELOW RISE: ECONOMIC GROWTHUN/UNDER EMPLOYMENTCOAL/CARBON DEPENDENCEWESTERN LIFE STYLE DESIREENERGY/POWER DEMANDAUTO/ROAD BOOMENDEMIC CORRUPTIONHYPER-URBANIZATIONRURAL-URBAM MIGRATIONURBAN-RURAL INEQUALITYPOPULATION GROWTHRURAL/URBAN POVERTYSOCIAL DISCONTENTDEMOCRACY DEMANDSWATER DEFICITSAIR POLLUTIONLAND/SOIL DEGRADATIONWATER POLLUTIONPUBLIC ILL-HEALTHCROPLAND LOSSESGRAIN HARVEST DECLINESTOTAL CAUSES VARIABLES TO THE RIGHT WILL TEND TO:

CHINA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES HYPER- URBANIZATION RURAL- URBAN MIGRATION URBAN- RURAL INEQUALITY RURAL& URBAN POVERTY SOCIAL DISCONTENT POPULATION GROWTH DEMOCRACY DEMANDS SOCIAL WATER DEFICITS ENVIRONMENTAL AIR POLLUTION LAND/SOIL DEGRADATION PUBLIC ILL-HEALTH WATER POLLUTION CROPLAND LOSSES GRAIN HARVEST DECLINES ECONOMIC EXPONENTIAL ECONOMIC GROWTH WESTERN LIFE-STYLE DESIRE ENDEMIC CORRUPTION COAL/ CARBON DEPENDENCE UN/UNDER EMPLOYMENT ENERGY/ POWER DEMAND AUTO/ ROAD BOOM PRIMARY CAUSES

CHINA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES HYPER- URBANIZATION RURAL- URBAN MIGRATION URBAN- RURAL INEQUALITY RURAL& URBAN POVERTY SOCIAL DISCONTENT POPULATION GROWTH DEMOCRACY DEMANDS SOCIAL WATER DEFICITS ENVIRONMENTAL AIR POLLUTION LAND/SOIL DEGRADATION PUBLIC ILL-HEALTH WATER POLLUTION CROPLAND LOSSES GRAIN HARVEST DECLINES ECONOMIC EXPONENTIAL ECONOMIC GROWTH WESTERN LIFE-STYLE DESIRE ENDEMIC CORRUPTION COAL/ CARBON DEPENDENCE UN/UNDER EMPLOYMENT ENERGY/ POWER DEMAND AUTO/ ROAD BOOM PRIMARY CONSE- QUENCES

CHINA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES HYPER- URBANIZATION RURAL- URBAN MIGRATION URBAN- RURAL INEQUALITY RURAL& URBAN POVERTY SOCIAL DISCONTENT POPULATION GROWTH DEMOCRACY DEMANDS SOCIAL WATER DEFICITS ENVIRONMENTAL AIR POLLUTION LAND/SOIL DEGRADATION PUBLIC ILL-HEALTH WATER POLLUTION CROPLAND LOSSES GRAIN HARVEST DECLINES ECONOMIC EXPONENTIAL ECONOMIC GROWTH WESTERN LIFE-STYLE DESIRE ENDEMIC CORRUPTION COAL/ CARBON DEPENDENCE UN/UNDER EMPLOYMENT ENERGY/ POWER DEMAND AUTO/ ROAD BOOM MOST CONNECTED 33 26

CHINA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES HYPER- URBANIZATION RURAL- URBAN MIGRATION URBAN- RURAL INEQUALITY RURAL& URBAN POVERTY SOCIAL DISCONTENT POPULATION GROWTH DEMOCRACY DEMANDS SOCIAL WATER DEFICITS ENVIRONMENTAL AIR POLLUTION LAND/SOIL DEGRADATION PUBLIC ILL-HEALTH WATER POLLUTION CROPLAND LOSSES GRAIN HARVEST DECLINES ECONOMIC EXPONENTIAL ECONOMIC GROWTH WESTERN LIFE-STYLE DESIRE ENDEMIC CORRUPTION COAL/ CARBON DEPENDENCE UN/UNDER EMPLOYMENT ENERGY/ POWER DEMAND AUTO/ ROAD BOOM CAUSE- EFFECT RATIOS C C C C C C C E E E E E E E

CHINA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES HYPER- URBANIZATION RURAL- URBAN MIGRATION URBAN- RURAL INEQUALITY RURAL& URBAN POVERTY SOCIAL DISCONTENT POPULATION GROWTH DEMOCRACY DEMANDS SOCIAL WATER DEFICITS ENVIRONMENTAL AIR POLLUTION LAND/SOIL DEGRADATION PUBLIC ILL-HEALTH WATER POLLUTION CROPLAND LOSSES GRAIN HARVEST DECLINES ECONOMIC EXPONENTIAL ECONOMIC GROWTH WESTERN LIFE-STYLE DESIRE ENDEMIC CORRUPTION COAL/ CARBON DEPENDENCE UN/UNDER EMPLOYMENT ENERGY/ POWER DEMAND AUTO/ ROAD BOOM ADDICTED TO GROWTH R

CHINA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES HYPER- URBANIZATION RURAL- URBAN MIGRATION URBAN- RURAL INEQUALITY RURAL& URBAN POVERTY SOCIAL DISCONTENT POPULATION GROWTH DEMOCRACY DEMANDS SOCIAL WATER DEFICITS ENVIRONMENTAL AIR POLLUTION LAND/SOIL DEGRADATION PUBLIC ILL-HEALTH WATER POLLUTION CROPLAND LOSSES GRAIN HARVEST DECLINES ECONOMIC EXPONENTIAL ECONOMIC GROWTH WESTERN LIFE-STYLE DESIRE ENDEMIC CORRUPTION COAL/ CARBON DEPENDENCE UN/UNDER EMPLOYMENT ENERGY/ POWER DEMAND AUTO/ ROAD BOOM SUCCESS TO THE SUCCESSFUL (URBANIZED) SUCCESSFUL UNSUCCESSFUL

CHINA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES HYPER- URBANIZATION RURAL- URBAN MIGRATION URBAN- RURAL INEQUALITY RURAL& URBAN POVERTY SOCIAL DISCONTENT POPULATION GROWTH DEMOCRACY DEMANDS SOCIAL WATER DEFICITS ENVIRONMENTAL AIR POLLUTION LAND/SOIL DEGRADATION PUBLIC ILL-HEALTH WATER POLLUTION CROPLAND LOSSES GRAIN HARVEST DECLINES ECONOMIC EXPONENTIAL ECONOMIC GROWTH WESTERN LIFE-STYLE DESIRE ENDEMIC CORRUPTION COAL/ CARBON DEPENDENCE UN/UNDER EMPLOYMENT ENERGY/ POWER DEMAND AUTO/ ROAD BOOM PHYSICAL GROWTH ENVTAL SCARCITY SOCIAL STRESS + - B + - B -+ R/B LIMITS TO GROWTH

CHINA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES HYPER- URBANIZATION RURAL- URBAN MIGRATION URBAN- RURAL INEQUALITY RURAL& URBAN POVERTY SOCIAL DISCONTENT POPULATION GROWTH DEMOCRACY DEMANDS SOCIAL WATER DEFICITS ENVIRONMENTAL AIR POLLUTION LAND/SOIL DEGRADATION PUBLIC ILL-HEALTH WATER POLLUTION CROPLAND LOSSES GRAIN HARVEST DECLINES ECONOMIC EXPONENTIAL ECONOMIC GROWTH WESTERN LIFE-STYLE DESIRE ENDEMIC CORRUPTION COAL/ CARBON DEPENDENCE UN/UNDER EMPLOYMENT ENERGY/ POWER DEMAND AUTO/ ROAD BOOM DECOUPLE LEAPFROG EQUALIZE RURALIZE SOCIALIZE ENVIRONMENT ENVIRONMENTALIZE SOCIAL SLOW,SHRINK PROTECT,RESTORE BUILD HUMAN- SOCIAL CAPITAL SIGNALS

EASING BACK FROM OVERSHOOT: NEW INFORMATION, RULES & GOALS EXTEND THE PLANNING HORIZON IMPROVE THE SIGNALS SPEED UP RESPONSE TIME MINIMIZE NONRENEWABLE RESOURCE USE HALT EROSION OF RENEWABLE RESOURCES SATISFY NONMATERIAL NEEDS NONMATERIALLY MAXIMUM RESOURCE USE EFFICIENCY SLOW/STOP EXPONENTIAL GROWTH

Brief Focus on China Eclipsed US in consumption of most basic resources (grain, meat, coal, steel)  Meat 67m tons (vs US 39 m)  Steel 258m tons (vs US 104m) What if China reaches US per capita consumption?  Expanding at 8% pa – it will reach US levels in 2031  Projected 1.45 billion people would consume:  2/3 of world’s grain harvest  Paper consumption would double world’s current production  Would require 99 million barrels of oil per day (current prod 84m b/day)  If China had 3 cars for 4 people (as in the US) its fleet would total 1.1 billion vehicles – current world fleet is 800 million India’s population by 2031 will be larger than China’s…