Jet Fuel Pricing Outlook and Key Drivers Paul Cluett Global Sales Co-ordination Manager

Oil and Jet Fuel Trends Future issues and concerns Key Drivers To Cover

World Oil Supply/Demand Balance (million b/d)

Total OECD Jet Demand

OPEC Basket Price Jan Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb- 04 $/bbl OPEC Price Band 20 Day Average Daily Basket Price Data to 25 March

OPEC Basket Price in Euro Jan Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb- 04 Euro/bbl Data to 25 March OPEC Price Band * 20 Day Average Daily Basket Price * OPEC Price Band calculated with Euro/Dollar rate at time of OPEC Basket introduction

Oil Price Wars Far East Nuclear Power Plants Extreme Cold Today… 9/11 Selective World Jet Fuel Prices

OECD Product Stocks DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec million b/d

RPK - Revenue passenger km ASK - Available seat km FTK – Freight tonne km ATK – Available tonne km PLF – Passenger load factor Airline Trends

Issues and Concerns Fragile Airline Finances and Airline Bankruptcies. Limited Hedging cover by airlines. Low Sulphur Diesel and Squeeze on Jet production. Infrastructure and Investment. Environmental developments. Tax. Deregulation & New competition. Airport congestion and slots.

Jet Price levels – High at present will they continue at current levels?. No more shocks Sars/Iraqi etc. Supply Security. Low stocks & refinery reliability. Better Demand Forecasting. Passenger Confidence. Key Drivers of Jet Fuel Pricing