OrientationOrientation AWOC Winter Weather Track Instructional Component 1 by Warning Decision Training Branch AWOC Winter Weather Track Instructional Component 1 by Warning Decision Training Branch

Here is the Outline of the Orientation Section 1: Purpose of Course Section 2: Overview of the Course Section 3: Roles and Responsibilities Section 4: Timelines

Section 1: Purpose of the Course Why a Winter Weather Track? Winter Weather Impacts on TransportationWinter Weather Impacts on Transportation –Nearly 74% of nation’s roads are located in snowy regions –7000 deaths/year –1.4 million crashes –$10 billion economic losses Source: Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) 2004 Buffalo, New York, 1977, Photographer: American Red Cross

Section 1: Why a Winter Weather Track? Winter Weather Impacts on Transportation (cont.)Winter Weather Impacts on Transportation (cont.) –Freeway speed and traffic volume reduced by 16-30% –23% of travel time delays –Increased operating and maintenance costs (nearly 39% of road operating costs can be attributed to winter maintenance annually) Chicago, IL, Jan. 26, 1967, Photographer: Dept. of Streets and Sanitation

Section 1: Why a Winter Weather Track? Impacts on PublicImpacts on Public –No energy reserves –Heating costs –Snow-removal costs –Closures –Insurance losses

Rapidly Escalating Societal Demands Energy Industry has changed in just the past 10 yearsEnergy Industry has changed in just the past 10 years Has evolved to a “No Storage” modelHas evolved to a “No Storage” model

Rapidly Escalating Societal Demands

Section 1: Why a Winter Weather Track? Impacts on SchoolsImpacts on Schools Image Source: Tulsa Union Public Schools

So, What are the Goals of the Course? The Purpose Of AWOC “To provide training to all warning forecasters on winter weather warning decision making principles” To warn To not warn

We Use These Metrics to Report Our Performance to the Public and to Congress Government Performance Requirements Act Government Performance Requirements Act (GPRA) Performance Measure (GPRA) Performance MeasureGoalsActualGoals Weather and Water Goals Storm-Based Tornado Warning Accuracy (%) Storm-Based Tornado Warning Accuracy (%) Storm-Based Tornado False Alarm Rate (%) Storm-Based Tornado False Alarm Rate (%) Storm-Based Tornado Warning Lead Time (Min) Storm-Based Tornado Warning Lead Time (Min) Flash Flood Warnings - Accuracy (%) Flash Flood Warnings - Accuracy (%) Flash Flood Warnings - Lead Time (Min) Flash Flood Warnings - Lead Time (Min) Hurricane Track Forecasts (48 Hours, RMS) Hurricane Track Forecasts (48 Hours, RMS) Hurricane Intensity Error (48 Hour, Knots) Hurricane Intensity Error (48 Hour, Knots) Precipitation Forecast – Day-1 Threat Score (%) Precipitation Forecast – Day-1 Threat Score (%) Winter Storm Warnings - Accuracy (%) Winter Storm Warnings - Accuracy (%) Winter Storm Warnings - Lead Time (Hours) Winter Storm Warnings - Lead Time (Hours)

Section 1: Purpose of Course (cont.) The training is also directly related to NOAA Commerce and Transportation GoalsThe training is also directly related to NOAA Commerce and Transportation Goals –Surface Weather Program –Accuracy of onset of event (frozen and freezing precip) –0-6 hrs period: 85% –Aviation Program o

Section 2 : Overview of the AWWT Collaborative Development ProcessCollaborative Development Process What’s in the Course?What’s in the Course?

PartnershipsPartnerships Peter Manousos (HPC) Dan Peterson (HPC) Paul Stokols (OCWWS) Richard Grumm (CTP) Eric Stevens (AFG) Phil Schumacher (RAP) David Schultz (NSSL) Michael Evans (BGM) Tom Niziol (BUF) Randy Graham (GRR/SLC) Ken Harding (ABR) Dan Cobb (CAR/GRR) Dan Baumgardt (ARX) review team Carl Dierking (JNU) Bruce Smith (APX) Peter Banacos (SPC/BTV) Pat Market (Univ. of Missouri-Columbia) Brian Motta (FDTB) John McLaughlin (Des Moines TV station) Julie Adolphson (GGW) Doug Wesley (COMET) Dan Bikos (VISIT/CIRA) Mike Myers (GJT) Dave Reynolds (MTR) Shannon White (OCWWS) review team

Section 2: Here is the AWWT Intended AudienceIntended Audience –NOAA/NWS Forecasters with Winter Weather Warning Responsibility –WFOs/National Centers (HPC, SPC) Pre-requisitesPre-requisites –DLOC or WSR-88D Ops Course Graduate DeliverablesDeliverables –Approx. 20 hours of instructional online courses on the LMS –Printable materials online (slides and notes) –Optional materials (job sheets, software applications, online courses) –Winter Weather WES Version (WES9.2ww)

AWOC Winter Track IC 1 Orientation (30 min) IC 2 Products and Services (1.5 hrs) IC 3 Societal Impacts: Road Weather (2 hrs) IC 4 Climatology (3 hrs) IC 5 Precipitation Forcing Mechanisms (3.5 hrs) IC 6 Forecasting P-type and QPF (3 hrs) IC 7 Monitoring (2.5 hrs) IC 9 WES (5 hrs) So, What Will the AWOC Winter Weather Track Look Like? Total = 21.5 hours* IC 8 Non precipitation (1 hr)

Section 2: How are the ICs Structured?

What are Learning Objectives? Learning objectives are defined for each Instructional Component (IC).Learning objectives are defined for each Instructional Component (IC). Learning objectives describe what learners should be able to do at the end of each lesson (and are testable via the OLT final tests in the LMS).Learning objectives describe what learners should be able to do at the end of each lesson (and are testable via the OLT final tests in the LMS). “Identify the key elements of the top-down approach to predict precipitation type and amounts in the watch and warning phases.”

What are Performance Objectives? Performance objectives are defined for each IC.Performance objectives are defined for each IC. Performance objectives provide precise, measurable statements of the behaviors that course participants will be able to demonstrate on the job.Performance objectives provide precise, measurable statements of the behaviors that course participants will be able to demonstrate on the job. “For a given event, be able to disseminate pertinent products and event information to the user community in a timely fashion and update that information at appropriate intervals.”

Learning Activities for Each IC? + Articulate Presentations WES Application + Increased Interactivity One WES simulation for the standard course Two WES simulations for the platinum course

Interactivity Increases Knowledge Retention Additional WES case and exercises e.g., microclimate exercise Throughout Presentations + N. Hosenfeld, SLC

Sample Quiz Question A complex winter storm event is expected to produce 8” of snow in the northern part of your CWA, 1-2” of sleet and 4 inches of snow in central part of your CWA, and ½” of ice in the southern part of your CWA. Winds are expected to be 10 to 20 mph across the north with some local blowing snow.A complex winter storm event is expected to produce 8” of snow in the northern part of your CWA, 1-2” of sleet and 4 inches of snow in central part of your CWA, and ½” of ice in the southern part of your CWA. Winds are expected to be 10 to 20 mph across the north with some local blowing snow. What product (s) should be issued?What product (s) should be issued? A) Three separate warnings – Heavy Snow Warning north, Winter Storm warning central, and Ice Storm Warning southA) Three separate warnings – Heavy Snow Warning north, Winter Storm warning central, and Ice Storm Warning south B) Two separate warnings – Winter Storm Warning north and central, and Ice Storm Warning south.B) Two separate warnings – Winter Storm Warning north and central, and Ice Storm Warning south. C) Single Winter Storm Warning for the entire CWAC) Single Winter Storm Warning for the entire CWA Winter Weather Product Quiz

How Difficult are the Lessons? Advanced Warning Operations CourseAdvanced Warning Operations Course

Two versions of AWOC Winter AWOC Winter FY 2012 StandardAWOC Winter FY 2012 Standard –Includes online courses IC’s 1-7 –One WES simulation in 3 parts (e.g., watch, warning, nowcast) AWOC Winter FY 2011 PlatinumAWOC Winter FY 2011 Platinum –All requirements of the Standard version and then… –IC 8 nonprecipitation –IC4.2 jobsheet exploring standardized anomalies in the internet –IC4.3 microclimate report to be hosted at WDTB –One additional WES simulation in 3 parts

AWOC Winter Development Plans Development Plan in the LMS Target audiencenotes WDTB Road Weather FY2012  Forecasters interested in taking the road weather course (IC3)  IC3 WDTB AWOC Winter FY2012 standard version  Forecasters that have not taken AWOC winter  DLOC 2011/2012 graduates  IC’s 1-7, IC 9WES simulation 1 WDTB AWOC Winter FY2012 Platinum version  Forecasters interested in being recognized for taking all the required exercises  IC’s IC4.2, IC4.3 exercise, IC9 WES simulations 1 and 2

Section 3: What is Your (the Student) Responsibility? 1. Meet with your facilitator and choose your development plan √ 2. Meet with your facilitator (and MIC) to plan an effective course of completion √ 3. Attend an orientation session. √ 4. Complete required lessons in your development plan (including surveys and tests) √ 5. Complete IC 9 (winter weather WES simulation) √

Section 3: Student/facilitator responsibilities for the microclimate exercise (platinum only) 1. Generate a write-up of the microclimate exercise using similar formats as found in ex.html ex.html ex.html 2. Allow your facilitator to review 3. Facilitator sends report to WDTB 4. WDTB reviews and sends back suggestions for improvements 5. Student revises and sends back revisions to WDTB 6. WDTB posts microclimate to the website above

What Do Facilitators Do to Help AWOC? Make the learning easierMake the learning easier –Meet with each forecaster to determine needs/goals –Set up completion schedule –Assign a development plan –Enrolling students in ILTs –Marking students complete in ILTs –Monitor progress –Be the interface with WDTB –Announce student’s completion

Facilitator and Learning Management System LMS DutiesLMS Duties 1.LMS Resources AWOC Documents Page: Documents Page: LMS URL: URL:

LMS front page

Development Plans

LMS (facilitators): Inserting users into Instructor Led Training (ILT) The ‘Insert Users into Enrollment’ jobsheet shows you how to enroll students into the AWOC winter jobsheet exercises and the IC 9 simulation

LMS: Marking users complete in an ILT enrollment From the Training Facilitator Information Page

Facilitator duties with the NWS Learning Center LMS DutiesLMS Duties (See Job Sheets in “LMS Resources” links below) –NOTE: Must be “Facilitator” in LMS. 1.Attend Facilitator Orientation (ILT) Session 2.Assign a Development Plan a)WDTB Road Weather b)WDTB AWOC Winter FY2012 c)WDTB AWOC Winter FY2012 platinum 3.Ensure WES/exercise Tasks are Complete 1.Enroll students in jobsheet/exercise ILTs 2.Mark students complete in jobsheet/exercise

Course Completion Requirements Prerequisites (DLOC or WSR-88D Ops)Prerequisites (DLOC or WSR-88D Ops) All required lessons, exercises for the specific development planAll required lessons, exercises for the specific development plan –When in doubt about what’s required look to the development plan. –Complete Winter AWOC End of Course Test (in Development Plan) Each AWOC winter development plan includes IC9, the simulationEach AWOC winter development plan includes IC9, the simulation Notify WDTB when student finishes AWOC WinterNotify WDTB when student finishes AWOC Winter

Section 4: Timelines AWOC Winter Wx Delivery Schedule S O N D J F M A M J J Forecasters Complete Winter Weather ICs Season Development for FY13 version

Who Can Help? WDTB (LMS problems, etc.)WDTB (LMS problems, etc.) –“How does this module work?” WDTB.NOAA.GOVWDTB.NOAA.GOV

Who Can Help? ContactsContacts –Jim LaDue, AWOC Winter focal point – –Brad Grant, AWOC Winter focal point – –Andy Wood - Road Weather Course – –Linda Curtis, Program Analyst –

This Can Be Winter Wx AWOC’s Impact Percentage Improvement to Performance AWOC improves performance, because all factors for learning and transfer are addressed! From AWOC post-training survey Sept-Oct Meteorologists from all regions surveyed! Average values shown

SummarySummary AWOC will provide an excellent opportunity for improvement in warning performanceAWOC will provide an excellent opportunity for improvement in warning performance But…But… Success Depends on All of Us!

ReferencesReferences Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), 2005: Road Weather Management Program (web site, Paul Pisano, Lynette Goodwin, and Andrew Stern, 2004: Surface Transportation Safety and Operations: The Impact of Winter within the Context of Climate Change. Kenneth Kunkel, Roger Pielke Jr., and Stanley Changnon, 1999: Temporal Fluctuations in Weather and Climate Extremes That Cause Economic and Human Health Impacts: A Review, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. Freedman, D.H., cited 2003: Pinpoint Weather. Technology Review. – –[Available online at technologyreview.com/articles/freedman0603.asp] Denver Post Newspaper ( Post Newspaper (