Developing Human System Modules for Climate Models Jessie Cherry,

Typical treatment of human/resource dimensions Offline model runs Use of projections and scenarios Qualitative characterizations of the future

Climate Change Planning Walsh & Chapman: PRISM downscaled multi-model projections of temperature and precipitation for AK under various scenarios of Greenhouse Gas emissions

Problems with this approach Creates a strong disconnect between the physical modeling community and the climate impacts community Makes it more difficult to provide decision support to stakeholders Could be missing important feedbacks between human agents and the climate system

Approaches to CCIAV IPCC, 2007

Integrated Assessment Definition: any model which combines scientific and socio-economic aspects of climate change primarily for the purpose of assessing policy options for climate change control (Kelly & Kolstad, 1998)

Integrated Assessment Modeling McGuffie & Henderson-Sellers, 2005

Integrated Assessment Models McGuffie & Henderson-Sellers, 2005

Characterizing the Future IPCC, 2007

Proposal: Code Human System Modules directly into a new Arctic System Model to make it truly ‘next generation’ and ‘system’

Example of Human System Module Cherry Goal is to be model independent; work with CCSM and other models/ couplers

Some Human Dimensions in the Arctic : Oil and Gas Recovery (& spill transport) Freshwater Supply Renewable Energy (wind, hydro, geo) Commercial, Subsistence, & Sport Fishing Infrastructure Coastal Erosion Subsistence Harvest of Furbearers, Caribou Marine Transport

Decision-Support What is that? Turban defines it as "an interactive, flexible, and adaptable computer-based information system, especially developed for supporting the solution of a non-structured management problem for improved decision making. It utilizes data, provides an easy-to-use interface, and allows for the decision maker's own insights.” (Wikipedia)

Example of Climate-Related Decision Support

Goals of a Pilot Project Create one or more model-independent modules for socio-economic decision- making Test in AK, but should have international applications at least across pan-Arctic Create cutting edge model, i.e. one that includes human dimension directly

Interactions between Module components/Climate model Need not occur at every model time step One or two way coupling may be appropriate depending on the system

BSIERP FEAST Higher trophic level model NPZ-B-D Lower trophic level ROMS Physical Oceanography Economic/ecological model Climate scenarios BSIERP Vertically Integrated models Nested models BEST

Infrastructure Impact of Climate Change on Infrastructure study done for Alaska by Peter Larsen and collaborators

Flow Chart of Model Processes Climate Projections NCAR UAF GI Import_Wx_UAF_NCAR_10_10_06.sas $ Depreciator_10_10_06b.sas Graphs Tables Depr. Matrix Denali DRM DCCED DNR Others APID Infrastructure_DB_09_28_06.sas

ISER Public Infrastructure Study

Wind Farm Parameterization for WRF Adams & Keith Modification of the MYJ PBL scheme Similar work being done commercially by 3TIER, AER, others

MMS-WRF winds 1

MMS-WRF winds 2

MMS-WRF winds 3

MMS-WRF winds 4

Hydropower AEA AEA Energy Atlas, 2007

Ship track

Readiness? If we don’t start to integrate these models they may never become ready… Data management may be the biggest challenge May need to modify existing couplers/design a human dimension standard May need to design ‘community’ decision support tool

Readiness: Oil and Gas Recovery (& spill transport) Freshwater Supply Renewable Energy (wind, hydro, geo) Commercial, Subsistence & Sport Fishing Infrastructure Coastal Erosion Subsistence Harvest of Furbearers, Caribou Marine Transport (& emissions)

A few of the many challenges Data acquisition and management (international) Models appropriate for the pan-Arctic domain Decision support interface Representing uncertainty quantitatively (including inter-temporal discount rate)

Why code human systems directly into models? There are (nearly) appropriate existing models We have the computing resources Bridges the gaps between physical system and human dimension It’s interesting work at the frontiers of research!!!

Thanks ?

Communicating uncertainty

New Scientific Methodology? Funtowicz & Ravetz, in Ecological Economics, 1991

Arctic human dimensions Oil and Gas Module (spill transport) Rural Resilience (wind power potential) Coastal Erosion (evolving coastline) Freshwater (hydropower, water supply) Marine Fisheries (Bering ecosystem) Marine Transport (ice cover trajectories)

Ammonium Euphausiids Neocalanus Small Phytoplankton Detritus Small microzooplankton Large microzooplankton Nitrate Large Phytoplankton Pseudocalanus Iron 14 component Model NPZD-Benthos Predation Losses Benthos Benthic Infauna Benthic Detritus BSIERP Lower Trophic Level Ecosystem Model