1 12-a. What is Sustainability & How Does it Relate to Natural Resource Management? Larry D. Sanders (SPRING 2002) Dept. of Ag Economics Oklahoma State University

2 INTRODUCTION (ch Hackett) u Purpose: –to become aware of the concept of sustainability & long term thinking u Learning Objectives. To understand/become aware of: 1. The concept of sustainability with respect to agriculture. 2.The concept of sustainability with respect to poor developing countries & the global system 3.The importance of long term thinking to avoid possibly irreversible or very costly damage & loss of life

3 Imperatives for Sustainable Systems Economy (efficiency) Individual/ Community (cohesion) Environment (maintain/ enhance)

4 Sustainability: u Normative standard/social goal u Vision of the future u Iroquois Confederation (7 generations) u More inclusive/comprehensive view of economic development/well-being u Whatever it takes to maintain the lives & livelihoods of people in the system

5 Sustainable Agriculture, as an example: “An integrated system of plant & animal production practices having a site specific application that will, over the long term: satisfy human food & fiber needs; enhance environmental quality & the natural resource base upon which the agricultural economy depends; make the most efficient use of nonrenewable resources and on-farm resources and integrate, where appropriate, natural biological cycles & controls; sustain the economic viability of farm farm operation; and enhance the quality of life for farmers and society as a whole.” --The Food, Agriculture, Conservation, & Trade Act of 1990

6 “5 Capitals” of Viederman: 1.Nature’s Capital: the flow of natural resources & cycling of waste (& life-sustaining ecosystem) 2.Human Capital: people using knowledge/skills to function 3.Human-created Capital: technology & productive facilities 4.Social Capital: networks of civic institutions & norms 5.Cultural Capital: myths/stories/visions shared by people

7 Sustainability as an Ethical Standard u Individualism vs. interdependence u Need buy-in by key participants u Crosses disciplines u Concept of “multifunctionality” for sustaining farms

8 Energy Trends--Sustainable? ( annual growth rates) u Wind Power (22%) u Solar (16%) u Geothermal (4%) u Oil Production (2%) u Hydro Power (2%) u Nuclear Power (1%) u Coal (0%)

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11 The Physics of Energy-- Sustainability difficult to maintain u Energy: the capacity for doing work u The First Law of Thermodynamics: the energy of the universe remains constant (nothing is destroyed; also known as the Law of Conservation of Matter & Energy) u The Second Law of Thermodynamics: entropy always moves toward a maximum (energy moves from order to disorder; also known as the Law of Energy Degradation)

12 Entropy & Energy Economics u Gross vs. Net Energy u Economic Reserves u Exponential Growth u Irreversibility u Externalities

13 Exponential Growth: the 29th Day “A French riddle for children illustrates another aspect of exponential growth--the apparent suddenness with which it approaches a fixed limit. Suppose you own a pond on which a water lily is growing. The lily plant doubles in size each day. If the lily were allowed to grow unchecked, it would completely cover the pond in 30 days, choking off other forms of life in the water. For a long time the lily plant seems small, & so you decide not to worry about cutting it back until it covers half the pond. On what day will that be? On the 29th day, of course. You have one day to save your pond.” (D. Meadows et al, 1972)

14 Exponential Growth & Doubling Time Growth Rate (%)Doubling Time (yrs)

15 Energy Reserves--Past Predictions u Meadows et al estimates of selected nonrenewable resource reserves, static vs. exponential (1972): –Natural Gas years –Petroleum years –Coal years u What did Meadows overlook or underestimate? time OIL NATURAL GAS COAL Reserves

16 Energy--Policy & Environment to achieve sustainability u National Energy Strategy u How to achieve MSC = MSB? –Market Pollution Permits –Per unit Pollution Taxes –Liability & Bonding Systems for Large Stationary Polluters –Fuel Taxes, Options & Impacts

17 Energy--Transition to Future Fuels for Sustainability u Transition –Increasing costs –Alternative Fuel &/or New Technology u Policy Options –Research & Development –Regulation –Tax –Market Incentives

18 Agrarian Evolution & Long Term Thinking u Process of agricultural evolution has led to a small percentage of large farms producing most of sales in US –displaced farm labor has moved into non-ag sector either in rural communities becoming more diversified or moving to urban areas u Agricultural evolution in developing countries more rapid, more disruptive, more destructive & harmful –40-50% world population lives in urban slums

19 Urban/environmental pressures increasing u Low-income countries face water shortages, water pollution, air pollution, minimal shelter shortages, transportation stresses u Industrialization that is needed to uplift economies will result in greater stresses on environment & natural resource base u billion in absolute poverty u 2/3 of world population live on less than $2/day

20 “Market Myopia”? u Biased w/short term perspective u Discount rates favor present & devalue long term u Tend to under-value cultural/social costs

21 World Hunger u AREA POPULATION FOOD u ASIA 40% 15% u AFRICA 10% 5% u L. AMERICA 10% 10% u EUROPE 25% 45% u N. AMERICA 10% 25% u OTHER 5% 1%

22 World Hunger (cont.) u Each minute 28 humans die from hunger & malnutrition –21 are children –Equals a “Hiroshima” every 3 days u Chronic Malnutrition: 10% of World Population

23 World Hunger (cont.) u 2 x Deaths in All Wars Past 150 yrs = Hunger Deaths in Past 5 yrs u 250,000 infants/small childrean die each week from diet-related, “easily” preventable diseases u Thousands more--diet- related blindness & physical & mental retardation

24 HUMAN POPULATION GROWTH, ESTIMATED & PROJECTED (3 Million BC-2036) MILLION HUMANS YEAR 8000 BC5-10 MIL BC20 MIL 3000 BC50 MIL BC100 MIL MIL MIL MIL BIL BIL BIL BIL???

25 World Hunger (cont.) u Not a food production problem u Economics--poverty--is the problem

26 World Hunger (cont.) u Economic development is the key u Education is the foundation for economic development u But... –What is the carrying capacity of earth? –What pressures can we expect to worsen? »Economic? »Physical? »Sociopolitical?

27 Poor Countries less efficient in energy use, thus more wasteful & polluting u Developed (relatively wealthy) countries have decreased CO2/GDP$ emissions 50% in past 30 years u Low-income countries produce about 5x more emissions/GDP$ than rich countries u Example: 1.US co2 emissions/person: 24x India 2.US co2 emissions/GDP$: 1/3 of India levels

28 Poor Countries’ access to clean air/water result in severe health problems u Over 1 billion people don’t have access to safe drinking water u 2 billion don’t have adequate sanitation u High rates of illness/disabilities

29 Economic Development Argument u Raise people out of poverty u Lower fertility rates u Increase use of cleaner, less resource-intensive technologies u Often destructive to culture u More sustainable? –No guarantee that technology will keep up –tendency for multinational corporate exploitation –failures of empowerment often occur (especially w/women), leading to dependency, injustice, corruption, more exploitation, political destabilization

30 Income Distribution increasingly skewed u Wealthiest 20% of world population accounts for 83% of world income u Poorest 20% account for 1.4% of world income u Gap has more than doubled since 1960 u US: Top 1% have as much after tax income as bottom 100 million people (60%+)

31 Arguments for failure of sustainable environmental systems u Rural poor living in fragile ecosystems u Ineffective property rights/lack of enforcement u Concentration of power/lack of accountability (especially w/multinationals, & non-democratic governments) u Trade in waste/toxics u Trade agreements that weaken environmental protection

32 Arguments for failure of sustainable environmental systems (continued) u Political power controlling; lack of public access u Government/corporate control of news media u Market has a short term perspective u Tax incentives distort environment/natural resource management u Lack of leadershp in fostering ethical vision of sustainability u Cultural dysfunction may lead to social problems

33 Alternatives that may lead to sustainable global situation u Disaster(s) cause rapid reduction in population? u Government intervention? –incentives –command & control –“new world order” u Free Market may work? u Multinationals take over?