Conference Call-In Information # 2012 Rocky Mountain Region WFDSS Refresher For Agency Administrators April 25, 2012

Webinar Objectives Provide Update on Policy Changes Provide Update on Regional Forester Expectations related to Wildfire Decisions Discuss Risk Based Approaches Discuss Decision Process and Articulating Leaders Intent

Webinar Rules of Behavior Make sure your phone is on mute unless asking a question or responding to a question. Utilize either the “Raise Hand” to ask a question via phone or submit your question via the question text box Please wait until you are recognized before asking your question via phone Participate in the polls.

Agenda Review Policy Updates and 2012 Expectations – Paul Langowski Pre-Season Set up– Brenda Wilmore Decision Process – Brenda Wilmore Relative Risk and Organizational Needs Assessment – Paul Langowski and Kelly Kane The Decision – Paul Crespin Periodic Assessment Loose Ends – Paul Langowski Webinar Wrap-up

Policy and Expectations

Risk Management Sound risk management is a foundation for all fire management activities, including prescribed fire. Risks and uncertainties relating to fire management activities must be understood, analyzed, and communicated. (USDA and DOI, 2009)

Wildland Fire Management Policy Framework Event Ignition Source Strategic Objectives 1 Strategies 2 & Tactics Evaluation Fire Type Unplanned Planned Wildfire Prescribed Fire Human Natural Management Converted Prescribed Fire Escaped Prescribed Fire Protection Resource Benefits Direction selected & managing resources to achieve incident objectives Compare outcomes with objectives Resources 1 Strategic Objectives are those define in an approved Land/Resource or Fire Management Plan having gone through the NEPA process. 2 Strategies are Monitor, Confine, Point / Zone Protection, Suppression* or any combination of these. *Synonymous with Full Perimeter Containment and Control

2012 Red Book - USFS Agency Administrator Responsibilities for Fire and Aviation at the Field Level (05-8 to 05-9)  Must use WFDSS  Approve and Publish Decisions on all fires that exceed initial attack or include a resource management objectives

2012 Red Book - USFS Agency Administrator Responsibilities for Fire and Aviation at the Field Level (05-8 to 05-9) Agency Administrators  Ensure that all personnel working on Forest Service jurisdiction wildfires clearly understand direction  Approve and publish Decisions and issue delegations to the IC according to delegated authority

2012 Red Book - USFS Agency Administrator Responsibilities for Fire and Aviation at the Field Level (05-8 to 05-9)

Critical long duration wildfire oversight roles include ensuring that: Up-to-date Published decisions are completed and documented in WFDSS. Hazards are identified and risk assessments are incorporated into Published Decisions.

2012 Red Book - WFDSS (11-12 to 11-14) WFDDS used for decision support Must have published Decision in WFDSS Level of documentation commensurate to: the incident duration, spread potential, cost, or relative risk.

2012 Red Book - WFDSS (11-12 to 11-14) Initial Decisions Must be published within 24 hours after determination that a published decision is needed or Within 24 hours of requesting an IMT

2012 Red Book - WFDSS (11-12 to 11-14) New Decisions Progressive Decision Making depending on complexity and need for supporting analysis 2-7 days

2012 Red Book – Managing the Incident (11-15 to 11-16) Provide IMT an approved and certified WFDSS. Ensure that significant decisions related to strategy and costs are included in WFDSS. Coordinate on multi-jurisdiction fires to issue a joint delegation of authority and single published WFDSS decision

2012 Red Book – Incident Business Management (11-26) Cost Management minimize costs without compromising safety Indirect containment strategies

2012 National Mobilization Guide Planning Level Considerations PL 4 Consult with GMAC required Consideration of resource commitments and availability to implement strategy

2012 National Mobilization Guide Planning Level Considerations PL 5 Consult with GMAC and NMAC required representative Consideration of resource commitments and availability to implement strategy

2012 Leaders Intent  Understand Current Conditions  Base Decisions/strategy selection on the here and now not on the past  Conduct appropriate analysis and articulate strong rationale  The conversation starts with risk and firefighter and public safety

Pre –Season Setup

Decision Process

Risk Management and Risk Assessment

Identification and Assessment of Risk Identify potential risks. Assess the risks as to their potential severity of impact and the probability of occurrence. In the assessment process it is critical to make the best educated/informed decisions in order to properly prioritize the implementation of risk management.

Risk Treatment After identification and assessment (and communication of risk(s), the management of the risk(s) fall into one or more of these major categories: Avoid or reject (withdraw or don’t become involved) Mitigate (reduce) Transfer Share Accept Note: The Department of Defense uses Avoid, Control, Accept, or Transfer (ACAT)

STRATEGIC More time More data to analyze More Complexity Larger Influence OPERATIONAL Moderate time Less Complexity Smaller Influence REAL TIME Limited Time Data Constrained Limited Complexity Limited Influence The levels of complexity are displayed to assist in understanding the kinds of decisions expected. The decision is not tied to an organizational level and each of these type decisions are made at all organizational levels. The difference lies in the amount of time available to make the decision and the amount and kinds of data available to analyze. The levels of complexity are displayed to assist in understanding the kinds of decisions expected. The decision is not tied to an organizational level and each of these type decisions are made at all organizational levels. The difference lies in the amount of time available to make the decision and the amount and kinds of data available to analyze. Risk Decision Levels RISK DECISION

Risk Management and Risk Assessment  Sound, risk-informed decision making requires pre-season planning including Relationship building “Pre-attack” planning Assess conditions and opportunities

Risk Management and Risk Assessment  Five Phases of Risk-Informed Decision Process SITUATION ASSESSMENT: Gather Information and Assess Information SITUATION ANALYSIS : Analyze to Characterize potential risks and opportunities. SITUATION ANALYSIS - Develop controls to address identified risks and opportunities PLAN OF ACTION and DECISION: Make a decision and articulate a ‘course of action’ to implement the decision PERIODIC ASSESSMENT: Periodically re-assess the situation, and revise the decision and course of action as needed.

Risk Management and Risk Assessment  SITUATION ANALYSIS : Analyze to Characterize potential risks and opportunities. Conduct a Risk Assessment:  Translating fire potential into an assessments of opportunities and risks: Understanding in general what opportunities and probabilities for taking advantage of the fire, opportunities and probabilities to mitigate fire threats, and how difficult are each are to achieve.

Risk Management and Risk Assessment  SITUATION ANALYSIS - Develop controls to address identified risks and opportunities Risk management is the mitigation of the hazards, threats, and causes identified by the risk assessment and implementation of actions to improve outcomes and minimize negative consequences.

Relative Risk Assessment

Relative Risk The relative risk assessment chart uses three risk components:  Values  Hazard  Probability What are your local break points?

Relative Risk Values  Values are those ecologic, social, and economic resources that could be lost or damaged because of a fire.

Relative Risk Hazards The hazard in wildland fire is composed of the following:  Departure from historic conditions  ability of the fire to spread and circulate  intensity and severity the fire may present  spatial extent of the fire (size)

Relative Risk Probability Probability refers to the likelihood of a fire becoming an active event with potential to adversely affect values.

Relative Risk  Localized Criteria

Organizational Needs Assessment

The Decision

Periodic Assessment

Loose Ends

 Multi-jurisdiction Fires  Communication between IMT and Adjoining Land Owners  Decision Tips  Decision Support Group  WFDSS Lite

Rocky Mountain Geographic Editors AgencyNameNumber USFSPaul Langowski USFSBrenda Wilmore CO/WY BLMGwenan Poirier NPSLinda Kerr USFWSRich Sterry BIAReeve Armstrong BIAJohn Barborinas Contacts/Support:

Model 9930 BlackBerry Set-Up Instructions for WFDSS Lite Application 1.From the Home screen, select Options (the wrench icon)> Security Option> Advanced Security Options>TLS 2.Scroll down to Proxy TLS, make sure the Enabled box below Proxy TLS is UNCHECKED 3.Click the Blackberry dot-icon to get the menu and select save

Questions?

Webinar Wrap-up “Fire is fire no matter what objective(s) you’re implementing. Always give fire the benefit of the doubt. It will do what you don’t think it will do sooner than you think and at the most inopportune time. Fire can have a tendency to humble you and it should!”