Who in the Baltic Sea Region is affected by Climate Change? ASTRA Stakeholder Workshop 26 October 2006 Gdansk Klaus Eisenack Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research ASTRAs preliminary results of vulnerable sectors

Klaus Eisenack Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Overview Objective of talk: give an overview of some potential exposure units and provide terminology Objective of workshop: assessment by participants, brainstorming on adaptation options Urban area Coastline Water EnergyTransport Tourism

Klaus Eisenack Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research General Observations Climate Change is mainly framed in terms of GHG mitigation and impacts Since knowledge about the extend of many climate change impacts on the local scale is quantitatively uncertain… … adaptation has to focus on the sensitivity of exposure units and increasing adaptive capacity.

Klaus Eisenack Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Vulnerability Assessment Who is vulnerable to what? Exposure unit e.g. urban area, coastline, water supply, energy sector, transportation, tourism Impact e.g. flooding, sea level rise, less snow exposure sensitivity adaptive capacity Mitigatio n Adaptatio n

Klaus Eisenack Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Urban Area Urban settlements, inhabitants and infrastructure Exposure Units Private and public buildings Places, cultural heritage Communication infrastructure (consequently: rescue services) Waste treatment Potential Impacts River floods: extreme precipitation events, snowmelt, increased average streamflow, risky time shifting from spring to winter Storm surges: wind, tides / sea level rise

Klaus Eisenack Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Urban Area Exposure Units Private and public buildings Places, cultural heritage Population Potential Impacts Hail and wind storms

Klaus Eisenack Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Urban Area Exposure Units Population In particular: old, very young, chronically ill Potential Impacts More frequent heat waves: deaths in summer Less deaths in winter Air quality problems (formation of pollutants due to higher temperature and sunlight)

Klaus Eisenack Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Urban Area Further Exposure Units Waste treatment Infrastructure (communication, transport, water, energy, etc.) Further Potential Impacts Landslides Rainfall, humidity, heat, insulation: changed stress on buildings

Klaus Eisenack Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Coastline Coastal shores and shores of large rivers and lakes Exposure Units: Coastal infrastructure Flood protection infrastructure Coastal ecosystems Cliffs Impacts Sea level rise Storm surges River floods Coastal erosion, changed sedimentation patterns

Klaus Eisenack Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Water Water for drinking, irrigation and industrial use Exposure Units Water utilities Water supply systems and infrastructure Sewage systems Public health Water intensive economic sectors Impacts: Flooding: pollution, damage to infrastructure Sea level rise: salinization Higher temperatures (with pollution): quality, eutrophication, algae blooms Increasing average streamflow and extremes, changed timing of water supply (snowmelt), droughts: changed supply Increasing temperatures, irrigation during droughts: increasing demand

Klaus Eisenack Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Energy Energy for household, public and industrial use Exposure Units Transmission lines Hydropower Wind power Energy utilities Impacts Storms and hail (transmission lines, wind energy) Changed timing and increased average streamflow Flooding: damage to infrastructure Higher temperatures (cooling water, efficiency of thermal electric generation, transmission capabilities) Higher temperatures and urban heat islands: increased energy demand in summer, decreased in winter

Klaus Eisenack Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Transport Transportation sector and infrastructure Exposure Units Harbours (transport conditions) Airports (accidents, delays, indirect effects from rescheduling) Railway (delays, indirect effects from rescheduling) Road traffic (accidents, winter maintenance) Transport infrastructure Impacts Extremes: precipitation, rainstorms Extreme temperatures (mechanical failure) Humidity (fog), snow, sea ice Wind conditions Floods

Klaus Eisenack Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Tourism Local tourism business and tourism industry Exposure Units Winter tourism / summer tourism Coastal tourist facilities Dependency on coastal resources Impacts More precipitation and changed sunshine patterns Warmer summers, warmer water (and changed water quality) Warmer winter: snow conditions Sea level rise Flooding Changes in alternative destinations

Klaus Eisenack Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Adaptation What is the adaptive capacity of exposure units? Who is responsible for managing them? Who can support them? Are there strategic alliances? Who will hinder them? What can be done to overcome barriers? Are national programmes needed? Are local key-actors needed?

Klaus Eisenack Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Thank You for Your Attention! Klaus Eisenack Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Telegraphenberg C Potsdam Germany

Klaus Eisenack Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Make a Choice Urban Area: Urban settlements, inhabitants and infrastructure Coastline: Coastal shores and shores of large rivers and lakes Water: Water for drinking, irrigation and industrial use Energy: Energy for household, public and industrial use Transport: Transportation sector and infrastructure Tourism: Local tourism business and tourism industry