Energy and Economic Growth Rögnvaldur Hannesson Norwegian School of Economics Bergen.

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Energy and Economic Growth Rögnvaldur Hannesson Norwegian School of Economics Bergen

Does energy use grow faster or more slowly than GDP? Does it grow faster in poor than in rich countries? Does it grow more slowly as countries get richer? Has energy use been influenced by higher oil prices?

Data GDP growth calculated from World Bank data (2005 US$) Growth in energy use calculated from BP Statistical Review of World Energy 43 countries, after excluding countries that have merged or broken up, 48 years, 12 missing values for 3 countries.

GDP growthGDP/capitaPriceConstant R2R *** ( ) -8.52e-07*** (8.49e-08) *** ( ) *** ( ) 0.28

GDP growthGDP/capitaPriceConstantR2R2 United States *** ( ) -2.17e-07 (3.41e-07) ** ( ) ( ) 0.65 Canada.60892*** ( ) -1.35e-06* (5.61e-07) ( ) ** ( ) 0.47 Graph for the US

Countries with coefficients significantly different from 0 a 1 (GDP growth)a 2 (GDPCAP)a 3 (Oil price) <1~1< 0> 0< 0>

Did energy use grow faster or slower than GDP ? Rich: > 20, US$/capita FasterSlower RichPoor/medium richRichPoor/medium rich Two important exceptions: China and India GDP grew faster than use of energy

Energy use tends to grow faster than GDP in poor and medium rich countries. Growth in these countries will require formidable increase in the use of energy. Where is it going to come from? Unrealistic to expect much reduced role of fossil fuels, unless we all sink back into poverty.