MYKHAILO GONCHAR Ukraine 29 OCT 2009 MINSK NOMOS intellenergy group ENERGY WARS: FROM VIRTUALITY TO REALITY Strategy XXI

Some basic definitions Energy weapon is the complex system of application of energy and infrastructural potentials of country (corporation) with the purpose to make economic and political defeat to a opponent. The energy weapon can be used as energy resources and infrastructural varieties. Energy resources weapon or CH-weapon (СН - chemical symbol of hydrocarbons) is the system use of supply of hydrocarbons (oil, gas) with not typical for the operations with commodities purpose for economic defeat of opponent and further receipt from its side of political and economic cessions or/and preferences. Infrastructural weapon is the systematic use of energy infrastructure by one country (by a corporation) with the purpose to reorient energy streams bypassing other country for realization of economic and political pressure and receipt further cessions and preferences.

Некоторые базовые определения Энергетическое оружие – комплексная система использования энергетического и инфраструктурного потенциалов страны (корпорации) с целью нанесения экономического и политического урона вероятному противнику. СН-оружие (СН-хим. символ углеводородов) – системное использование поставок углеводородных ресурсов с нехарактерной для товарных операций целью нанесения экономического урона вероятному противнику и последующего получения с его стороны политических и экономических уступок или/и преференций. Инфраструктурное оружие – системное использование энергетической инфраструктуры одной страной (корпорацией) с целью временной или долгосрочной переориентации энергетических потоков в обход другой страны для осуществления экономического и политического давления и получения с ее стороны политических и экономических уступок или/и преференций.

EU ENERGY CONNECTORS North Sea North Africa Suez Russo-Baltic Belorussian Ukrainian Russo-Black Sea Turkish

STRATEGIC CHALLENGES: BYPASSES ROUTES OF RUSSIAN OIL & GAS EXPORT (DEVELOPMENT TILL 2030) TO PACIFIC OCEAN TO ARCTIC OCEAN TO BALTIC SEA TO BLACK SEA

Caspian & Central Asian Gas Supply to Europe, Russian Scenario One from important goals of Russian ingression into Georgia – redirection of Caspian and C.Asian gas streams from Trancaspian and S.Caucasus directions in the North (via Russia)

Russian & Kazakh Oil Supply to Europe, Russian Scenario

BPS-І BPS-ІІ BALTIC PIPELINE SYSTEMS AS A CHALLENGE FOR OIL SUPPLY VIA “DRUZHBA”

Simplified matrix-table of scenarios' variants for changes of transit gas supply volumes via pipelines from RF to EU through Ukraine RF EU 1. Production and export increase 2. Production and export decrease 3. LNG production development 4. Shifting of export to APR (Asia-Pacific Region) 1. Consumption and import increase 1.1. Keeping of volumes with tendencies for increase 1.2. Reduction of volumes close to critical 1.3. Keeping of volumes with tendencies to non-critical reduction 1.4. Keeping of volumes with tendencies to non-critical reduction 2. Consumption and import decline 2.1. Keeping of volumes with tendency to non- critical reduction 2.2. Critical reduction of volumes 2.3. Instability of transit volumes 2.4. Instability of transit volumes 3. LNG demand and supply growth 3.1. Instability of transit volumes 3.2. Instability of transit volumes 3.3. Instability of transit volumes 3.4. Instability of transit volumes 4. Demand and supply growth for gas from non-RF sources 4.1. Instability of transit volumes 4.2. Instability of transit volumes 4.3. Instability of transit volumes 4.4. Instability of transit volumes

Possible South – North Axes for Gas & Oil deliveries to CEE countries Project of Gas pipeline Omisalj – Swinoujscie and oil pipeline Odesa – Brody

Producer (RU) 17 indicators Transmitter (UA, BY, MD) 14 indicators Consumer (EU) 14 indicators APPROXIMATED SCHEME OF THE ON-LINE DATA INTERCHANGE SYSTEM AS A BASE OF EIGT Daily verification

Thank you for your attention NOMOS Center STRATEGY XXI

Caspian & Central Asian Gas Supply to Europe, Black Sea Scenario REDIRECTED GAS FROM CENTRAL ASIA

Oil Supply to Europe, Black Sea Scenario (End of «Druzhba»)