1 FEMA Near Earth Object Table Top Exercise Activities First International Workshop on Potentially Hazardous Asteroids Characterization, Atmospheric Entry and Risk Assessment 8 July 2015 Leviticus A Lewis Chief, Field Operations Branch, Operations Division Federal Emergency Management Agency Department of Homeland Security

FEMA-Response Mission 2 FEMA’s mission is to support our citizens and first responders to ensure that as a nation we work together to build, sustain, and improve our capability to prepare for, protect against, respond to, recover from, and mitigate all hazards. To build, sustain and improve our ability to coordinate and provide the core Federal disaster response capability needed to save lives, reduce suffering, and protect property in communities throughout the Nation that have been overwhelmed by the impact of an incident, regardless of cause.

Principles of Incident Management 3 National Incident Management System Standardizes incident management at every level to enable coordinated response National Response Framework Guides national response, roles, & activities for all domestic incidents PRINCIPLES Engaged Partnership Tiered Response Scalable & Flexible Unity of Effort Readiness to Act

4 Incident Support at the Federal Level Emergency Support Functions President leads national incident response Secretary of Homeland Security is principal federal official for domestic incidents FEMA Administrator is principal advisor to the President & coordinates response through ESFs

Incident Management in the Field State & Federal Coordination through the Unified Coordination Group 5 Unity of Command Orderly line of authority within the ranks Unified Command Agencies work together, within own authorities Modular Organization Based on size & complexity of the event Management by Objectives Assignments support established objectives Common Terminology Diverse organizations coordinate for any incident Comprehensive Resource Management Includes standard resource typing Unified Coordination Group Senior leaders representing State and Federal interests Operations Section Planning Section Logistics Section Finance and Administration Section

Notification and Alerts Systems 6

Potentially Hazardous Object TTX 7 The NASA Science Mission Directorate, Planetary Sciences Division, Near Earth Object Program Office and the FEMA Response Directorate have conducted two Near Earth Asteroid Impact Emergency Tabletop Exercises in April 2013 and May The purpose of the exercise was to inform the FEMA leadership and members of the Emergency Support Functions Leadership Group (ESFLG) on the issue in general and to assess leadership reactions, information requirements, and responses to a hypothetical prediction of a potentially hazardous object (PHO) impact with Earth in a short time. The exercise included a scripted approach by a threatening PHO, and information collected during the exercise will be used to help guide a detailed study of short warning threats.

Potentially Hazardous Object TTX 8 The U.S. Congress has established that FEMA and NASA work together to improve the ability to alert and warn both government emergency response mechanisms and the general public. The latest events evidenced by the recent close approach of 2012 DA14 and the Chelyabinsk impact illustrate the need for continued refinement of our abilities to respond to this type of incident. The exercises were the first steps in increasing FEMA’s ability to respond to this particular scenario in addition to our normally wide variety of emergencies. The FEMA/NASA team will continue to work together in this area and perhaps expand our education and exercise efforts with the entire US government.

Potentially Hazardous Object TTX Key Findings: Predicting Impact Points 9 Predicting Impact Points: From a FEMA perspective, we could have a fairly long lead time, if NASA can provide advanced warning With an object of the size in the type of orbit exercised, the probability is high that the object will be detected in a timeframe of 3 to 4 weeks. Within a week before impact, we can narrow the impact point down to a 100km corridor. (The hurricane analogy is a respectable comparison) Within 24 hours out, we can predict impact point to within 1-2 Km and well under 5 Km. *Graphics from ‘Near Earth Asteroid Impact Emergency – FEMA TTX’, Lindley Johnson, NASA Planetary Science Division, 3 April 2013

Potentially Hazardous Object TTX Key Findings: National Plan 10 Roles and responsibilities must be reviewed ahead of time. While the U.S. has a developed emergency response system and FEMA has deliberate plans for many types of emergencies. Many are covered in the Federal Interagency Operational Plans (FIOP) documents. There is no FIOP for hazards from space. At this time FEMA does not intend on developing a specific plan for the NEO scenario. However, the previous two tabletop exercises indicate that it may be helpful to work through some of the following issues identified, including pre-identification of agency roles and responsibilities (who will lead, when), with clear lines of authority and communication. In the case of a ‘No-Notice Event,’ FEMA might choose to use the same protocols as a manmade disaster or use an all-hazards plan/checklist. FEMA and NASA are in the process of formally chartering the Planetary Impact Emergency Response Working Group (PIERWG) which will help develop and advise senior interagency leadership on the way forward.

Potentially Hazardous Object TTX Key Findings: Evacuations 11 Evacuation Decisions: Evacuation decisions are not always within FEMA’s control, it depends on the states and their policies. Local and state governments will need better information to make such critical decisions. Unaffected jurisdictions may resist accepting evacuees. Some individuals may choose not to evacuate. Some evacuees will require additional support. Effective tracking of evacuees, pets, & personal property will be a significant undertaking. No-notice events may require rapid Federal action.

Potentially Hazardous Object TTX Key Findings: Questions Asked During Exercise 12 Understand and appreciate the science behind what you are doing but for public policy development it would be beneficial to direct some correlations between the science and public needs it serves. There is a need to find a credible and authoritative way to communicate with the public in a way that they can understand and absorb information. Maintaining authority as the source of authentic information is a challenge. What research, tools and or methods will help you figure out where it will land? How soon will you tell public officials outside of the planetary defense community that there is an impact possibility? What determines how much time you can give public officials to react? (remember the CNN factor, this will not be a secret for long) How can the current research help explain to public what’s going on? Can you explain why characterization is important? What risks does that help emergency managers prepare for? Why does it matter if it is a stony or iron or whatever? Impact studies, how important, can you tell me what will be different if it lands on the continental shelf. Does depth of water matter? Is the west coast undersea topography different from the east coast? Blast studies in urban area vs rural area? How will it effect critical infrastructure? Your information will help guide public policy, you will not be making it. The response part will be under those officials. However, they will need to know or want to know what your deflection or mitigation plans might be. Will whatever you do make it worse? Can your research support doing nothing at all or will it show the consequences of not doing anything will be too high. This will probably be a public policy driven decision (political) not a science decision.

Future Actions with Regard to Near Earth Objects Next Steps 13 Need a credible and authoritative way to communicate with the public in a way that they can understand and absorb information. Maintaining authority as the source of authentic information is a challenge. In a near earth object impact scenario there would be coordinating agencies that help with messaging. Need to codify who does what and when. This was the main part of the direction we were responding to in 2010 Letter to Congress FEMA and NASA via the PIERWG is an advisory capacity would help develop or recommend procedures to coordinate actions and messaging to the public in a impact scenario. The PIERWG would be aware of the deflection or mitigation efforts but see no active role in determining what those actions are. Via the SMEs at the PIERWG keep abreast of the actions of the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) and the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG) Need to be able to communicate accuracy of the track and impact point and how these evolve with time as they become available, which is expected to be more frequent than one a week. Enhanced graphic capabilities can make the threat more understandable to the public. 2D plots to illustrate risk evolution over time. 3D model to make the physics more intuitive..

Future Actions with Regard to Near Earth Objects Next Steps 14 Current national preparedness policy is set forth in Presidential Policy Directive-8 (PPD-8) PPD-8 establishes the framework for an all-of –nation, all hazards approach to national preparedness across five mission areas; prevention, protection, response, recovery and mitigation Under the auspices of the Office of Science and Technology Policy, National Preparedness Science and Technology Council. The NSTC Subcommittee on Disaster Reduction will establish the National Preparedness Science and Technology Task Force This Task Force is charged with assessing the current status of Federal S & T investments across the five PPD-8 mission areas To achieve this objective, the Task Force is forming hazard specific review teams focusing on Biological, Chemical, Geologic, Meteorological, Radiological/Nuclear and Space.

Future Actions with Regard to Near Earth Objects Next Steps 15 Each Hazard review Team is led by at least two co-leads one from and agency representing Science and Technology programs and one from an agency representing operational responsibilities specified by PPD-8 The space hazard area includes space weather and near earth objects. Mission to identify existing Federal S & T programs that support preparedness for the hazards intersection with PPD-8 mission areas. Identify gaps in meeting PPD-8 mission area requirements that could be filled with existing or additional Federal support Develop recommendations for future S & T actions or investments to address these gaps.

Questions? 16

Assessing the Impact Threat 17

Considerations in Mass Evacuations 2007 Texas Transportation Institute Study on Evacuation Signs 18 Drivers best understood the use of shoulders as evacuation routes through pavement markings of a standard hurricane symbol Drivers did not understand contraflow evacuation signs; additional public education regarding meaning of contraflow required While evacuation trailblazing signs (text or symbols) are used extensively, arrows defining evacuation direction are critical Dynamic messaging through permanent or portable mechanisms can improve planning & education information for future & current evacuation scenarios

Principles of Federal Evacuation Support Primarily for Non-CBRNE Events 19 Federal evacuation measures will be taken when: State/local resources are overwhelmed & Governor requests Federal assistance. In catastrophic incidents when State and local governments are incapacitated. Federal Support Focus Areas (National Response Framework) Coordination & communication across affected jurisdictions Support to air, ground, and rail transportation efforts Ensuring fuel availability along evacuation routes Sheltering, feeding, and reunification support of evacuees Evacuation of household pets Medical evacuation support Providing for public safety & security Evacuation Orders Issued Embarkation Processing & Tracking Transport Reception/ Congregate Care Return or Long-Term Housing Evacuation Phases