NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner 1 Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Today and in 2020  vision, mission, & roles  partners & customers  products & services  performance & value added by HPC forecasters  HPC in 2020 Ohio State University Severe Weather Symposium March 4, 2011 Jim Hoke Director, HPC NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction

NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner 2 Ohio State and HPC Mike & Tom at HPC recently Mike Sowko with Tom Skilling of WGN in 1991

NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner 3 HPC’s Vision & Mission  Mission statement: HPC delivers weather forecast guidance products and services in support of the daily activities of the National Weather Service and its users.  Vision statement: To be a leader in the NWS collaborative forecast process and recognized as a center of excellence by providing high-quality weather forecast guidance and analyses.

NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner 4 HPC: a resource to field forecasters, other partners, and customers starting point second opinion focusing mechanism unifying influence (catalyst for collaboration) a scientific center of expertise in QPF, medium-range forecasting, model diagnostics, and surface analysis provider of historical record emergency backup

NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner 5 HPC’s Partners & Customers  NWS field offices: WFOs, RFCs, CWSUs  other NCEP centers: AWC, CPC, EMC, NCO, NHC, OPC, SPC  federal agencies: DHS/FEMA, USACE, FAA, NTSB, DoD, USBR, USAID/OFDA, EPA, White House  state agencies: water resources, flood management, emergency services, state climatologists  media: TV, radio, newspapers, wire services, Internet services  private sector: data vendors, forecast services, utilities, forensics, retailers, researchers  aviation: general aviation and others  academic community: atmospheric sciences and other departments  international: foreign met services, media, emergency management, travelers  general public: analysis & forecast products, visits Rita, September 2005

NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner 6 HPC’s Products and Services  quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs), excessive rainfall, river flood outlook, and heavy snow & ice guidance  medium-range guidance  model diagnostic discussions & associated graphics tools  surface analyses & Daily Weather Map  basic weather forecasts & National Forecast Charts  South, Central, and Caribbean America training, prognostic discussions, & graphics

NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner 7 Examples of HPC’s Emergency & Special Products and Services  Special teleconferences for major flooding events  Nontropical storm summaries  Media interviews & press conferences  Capitol Hill briefings on weather events/activities  Training of field forecasters in quantitative precipitation, medium range, and ensemble forecasting  Precipitation statements in NHC Public Advisories  Tropical cyclone prediction at days 6 & 7  Public Advisories for remnants of tropical cyclones over land  Hurricane Liaison Team briefings  Backup to NHC’s hurricane program

NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner 8 International Desk Alumni include:  Tropical Desk –Fred Sambula, Director, Cayman Islands –Justin Hulse, Director, Belize –Eli Henry, Director, Barbados –Trevor Basden, Chief of Operations, The Bahamas –Evan Thompson, Chief of Operations, Jamaica –Bryan Bambury, Chief NWP, Jamaica –Miguel Cortez, Chief of Climatic Studies, Mexico –Cesar Triana, Met. In Charge, Chiapas, Mexico –Federico Acevedo, Met. In Charge, Veracruz, Mexico  South America Desk –Humberto Enriquez, Chief of Climatology, Ecuador –Humberto Gonzalez, Deputy Director, Colombia –Roel Oehler, Chief of Operations, Suriname –Ramon Velazquez, Deputy Director, Venezuela –Fernando Figueroa, Chief of Administration, Bolivia –Jorge Chira, Chief of Synoptic Meteorology, Peru –Juan Coronado, Chief NWP, Peru –Ramon Soncini, former Director, Argentina

NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner 9 HPC on the Internet

NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner 10 HPC QPF verification 1-inch threat score

NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner 11 HPC QPF verification vs. the models Day 1, 1 inch NWS GPRA Measure

NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner 12 Value added by HPC forecasters (Sum of Daily Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts for Central U.S. Flooding of June 2008) HPC forecastVerification Threat score for 30 forecast days: NAM: 0.19; GFS: 0.12; HPC: 0.25

NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner 13 HPC day 7 and day 6 forecast positions for Katrina: (a) day 7 forecast position on Monday, August 22, 2005, valid Monday, August 29, 2005; (b) day 6 forecast position on Tuesday, August 23, 2005, valid Monday, August 29, Value added by HPC forecasters (Days 7 & 6)

NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner 14 HPC Medium-range verification North American MSLP forecast skill

NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner 15 HPC medium-range T max verification Mean Absolute Error (all stations)

NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner 16 HPC medium-range Tmax verification % reduction in Mean Absolute Error over MOS 2010 (adjusted stations only) (HPC Prelim vs. 00 UTC MOS)

NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner  products and services fostering collaboration among NWS field offices.  reach-back resource for Decision Support Specialists.  decision support services to a broad spectrum of regional- and national- level decision makers for heavy rainfall and winter weather.  national met watch for heavy rainfall and winter weather.  gridded forecasts of weather elements through at least day 10.  training in the use of advanced meteorological and climate analysis and forecast techniques for forecasters of South, Central, and Caribbean America and others.  real-time recommendations throughout the year on the deployment of resources to support the daily conduct of adaptive observation programs.  graphical forecasts of highs, lows, fronts, and mesoscale features at 3-h intervals out through 72 h.  weather threat assessment charts through day 10.  oversight of certain programs contributing to the historical weather record.  possible site for a 24x7 national operations services center. 17 HPC in 2020? Global Hawk

NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner 18 Hydrometeorological Prediction Center -- In Conclusion -- The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center:  Delivers weather forecast guidance products and services in support of the daily activities of the NWS and its users.  Serves as a starting point, second opinion, focusing mechanism, unifying influence, historical record, and emergency backup.  Strives to be a leader in the NWS collaborative forecast process and recognized as a center of excellence by providing high-quality forecast guidance and real-time numerical model diagnostics.  Accelerates advances in weather prediction into the daily activities of operational forecasters across the Nation.  Responds to the emerging needs of the NWS and its users in providing products & services to a society becoming more and more weather savvy and weather sensitive.