African Development Report 2008/09 Conflict Resolution, Peace and Reconstruction in Africa Dakar, May 10th 2009 Presented by : Léonce Ndikumana Director, Research Department African Development Bank

2  What do we know about the nature, causes and consequences of violent conflicts?  How can we use that knowledge to prevent and resolve conflicts, mitigate their consequences, build peace, and facilitate post- conflict reconstruction in Africa?  What is the role of the Bank in conflict prevention and post- conflict reconstruction? Key questions

3  Overview  Chapter 1:Explaining Violent Conflict  Chapter 2:The Consequences of Conflict  Chapter 3: Conflict Prevention, Resolution and Peace Building Strategies  Chapter 4: Policies for Post-Conflict Economic Recovery and Development  Chapter 5: Bank Support to Conflict-Affected Countries Contents of the report

4  Violent conflicts are mainly internal: inter-state wars have ended.  Some conflicts escalate into civil war involving a rebel movement.  Neighboring countries are sometimes involved.  There are often large civilian casualties. The nature of violent conflicts

5 Violent conflicts have been declining in Africa and globally

6 Battle deaths,

7 Conflict risk factor Natural resources Low per capita income Low economic growth Ethnic tensions Rough terrain Political repression Inequality Flawed democratization Legacies of colonialism & superpower rivalry Conflict trap – a history of conflict increases risk of conflict

8 Conflict triggers Regime change; military coups Elections Neighboring conflicts Dramatic events

9 Heavy death toll Battle deaths; Deaths indirectly caused by war (malnutrition, diseases, etc.)

10 African refugees by origin, 2006African refugees by country of asylum, 2006 Refugees

11 Internally displaced persons in Africa, 2006

12 Other social consequences Legacy effects War affects people’s lives long after the fighting has stopped through diseases, trauma, and deprivation Spillover effects Neighboring countries are affected through diseases, displacement and increased risk of conflict Children and girls Child soldiers – lost opportunities (schooling, employment); exploitation Girls and women are disproportionately affected: gender-based violence; & victimization of victims

13 Economic consequences of conflict economic contraction shortening of time horizons of policy makers and private actors (investors) financial and human capital flight changes in sectoral composition of GDP (some sectors are more vulnerable to conflicts) increased military spending destruction of infrastructure poor policy

14 Conflict prevention policies Equitable growth: reduces incentives for conflict Strengthening democracy as a basis of social contract Protecting minority rights Constraints on the executive: separation of powers Strengthening neighborhoods Regional integration

15 Conflict resolution & peace building tools Power sharing Peace keeping Transitional justice: Truth and reconciliation commissions International criminal court Disarmament, demobilization and reintegration Small arms control

16 Some small arms control instruments

17 Economic policies are vital for post-conflict reconstruction Economic policies help reduce the risk of conflict growth and employment creation are crucial for peace and recovery Distinctive context for economic policy-making in post-conflict setting different objective: promote peace building different context due to economic legacies of conflict Resource-rich countries face two key concerns weak capacity to negotiate favorable terms with extraction companies increased scope for corruption Public service delivery Institutions are weak and service delivery inefficient Consider an Independent Service Authority

18 Aid can be critical to post-conflict economic recovery Key issues quality of aid efficiency of delivery mechanism: project versus budgetary support absorptive capacity appropriate timing/scheduling conditionalities and allocation criteria need to be streamlined aid is never apolitical: it tends to strengthen the government vis-à-vis the opposition.

19 Bank operations in conflict-affected countries Strategic focus: help revive war-ravaged economies by: reestablishing the framework of good governance rehabilitating and reconstructing basic social services Reestablishing the enabling policy environment for private sector activities. Current policy: the Bank’s Fragile State Facility (FSF) 3 windows  Supplemental support window  Arrears clearance window  Targeted support window

20 The fragile state continuum

21 Key lessons and conclusions The number of African countries facing violent conflict has declined in recent years. Empirical studies seeking to explain violent conflict have been heavily contested in terms of methodology, data and interpretation. Conflicts have massive social and economic consequences. Strengthening democracy as the basis of the social contract between government and the citizenry would help to prevent violent conflict in Africa.

22 Key lessons and conclusions (continued) Economic policies are vital for post-conflict reconstruction and peace building. Efficient service delivery is critical for rebuilding livelihoods and promoting private sector development. There is a need for increased and targeted assistance to fragile states, the majority of which are post-conflict countries. Coordination and harmonization of donor interventions need to be improved to achieve higher aid effectiveness.

23 Thank you For additional information