Alternative Electoral Systems for BC Deliberative Phase: Weekend 4

Alternative Electoral Systems for BC  CA has designed two distinct electoral systems based on different approaches to organizing electoral competition and voter choice  Mixed-Member Proportional & Single Transferable Vote Types  Each specially modified and adapted to meet the needs of BC’s population and society  Both are likely to produce different legislative and governing dynamics in the province  Politics won’t be the same if one of them is adopted

Electoral Systems STV & MMP are different in principle from FPTP, and from each other Plumbing looks complicated but that is true of every electoral system BC’s current Election Act [R.S.B.C. 1966, Chapter 106] is 160 pages of fine print Decisions about electoral systems must rest upon their implications for representation and government, not the technical details that get written into Election Acts …. the principles not the plumbing ……

CA’s Mixed Constituency-Party (MMP) System for BC  Mix  Candidate options  Voters’ choice  District Seats  Proportional Allocation  Party Lists  Threshold  Vacancies  List access  PR formula  Overhang seats  List vacancies  Ballot forms  Number of Regions Proportional 60 : 40 (District : List) Run in either or both parts 2 votes AV Province-wide Regional and open 3% District = AV ;

CA’s Voter Preference (STV) System for BC  DM: 2-7  Quota  Ballot form  Completion  Transfer  Vacancies Low in rural areas, high in urban ( range 2-7) Droop Candidates grouped by party and names randomized Voters express as many preferences as they desire All transfers counted for replicability By-elections by AV

Choosing Between Alternative Systems  Basic Values   Existing Political System  Constitution of Canada & Westminster Parliamentary  Electoral System is just one part of democratic complex  Institutional Features  Voter Choice Proportional Representation Local Representation  Electoral System Possibilities STV or MMP

Meeting Institutional Features Criteria MMP Voter choice in two distinct parts (candidate & party) of system Party-centred Proportional Representation Single-member local districts & regional lists STV Voters rank order preferred candidates Candidate-centred Proportional Representation Multi-member local districts

Voters and their MLAs With MMP Voters will have a local MLA (from a larger constituency), and their party will have proportionate share of seats in legislature. Voters may not have a list member from their preferred party in their region. With STV Voters will have several representatives from larger districts, and voters will have representatives from more than one party in their district In both systems the number of MLAs from a particular ‘region’ of the province will not change. With MMP 60% of them will be from single-member districts, 40% from the wide region. With STV all of them will be from separate multi-member districts

The Westminster Parliamentary System  Elections don’t choose Governments, Legislatures do  Elections choose and determine political shape of Legislatures  Government policy dependent upon Legislature’s support  Political parties provide organizational coherence to the system  In British Columbia, PR systems (MMP or STV) will likely produce legislatures with no single-party majority, therefore no clear majority government  How will parties, and the legislatures they create, differ under STV or MMP? Legislature Election Process Government (Cabinet) Political Parties

Parliamentary Realities Parliamentary government is party government In both systems, all serious parties are going to be disciplined - that is the point of being in a party - that is the price of power In PR systems the challenge of party leaders is to find a way to bring their followers into co-operative as well as competitive relationships with the others

STV, MMP and Party Competition  Both systems are likely to lead to more election competitors (more and different choices for voters), and more of them getting elected The numbers are unpredictable  MMP aiding small parties  STV aiding Independents & smaller parties  Parties will have to learn how to balance electoral competition with parliamentary co-operation  Whether a new parliamentary dynamic is centre-seeking or polarizing is difficult to predict and may shift from one election, one legislature to the next  What differences between them might we expect?

Parties as Electoral Competitors MMP Electoral interests and campaigns of list and district candidates vary Candidates’ electoral appeals will be more oriented to party policy STV Competition between candidates of same party for local support Candidates’ electoral appeals more oriented to support for personal service

Parties as Legislative Organizations MMP Two kinds of MLAs with different political bases and obligations Different kinds of Parties - Parties with mainly constituency MLAs (Governing parties) - Parties with all list MLAs (small parties) STV All MLAs have the same constituency bases and responsibilities MLAs balancing party loyalty with need to establish personal autonomy

Parties in Governments Parties in most proportional systems soon learn not to expect to win single-party majorities. Less incentive to form minority governments with limited life expectancies and more to establish working coalitions The simple rules of government formation and defeat of the traditional Westminster process will need to evolve to provide for more complex parliamentary coalition government formation and dissolution politics In both MMP and STV systems parties have proved to be effective partners in making coalition government work The kinds of governments possible will depend first upon the mix of parties that the voters choose, and then on the capacity of politicians to make partisan compromises

Party Governments Both systems produce party government. The shape of governments will reflect the basic patterns of party voting. As that changes so will the patterns and life of governments.  STV ACT Had many parties with minority/coalition governments; recently shifted to majority governments IRE Long had 1-party vs rest (mainly majority governments); now multi-party coalitions  MMP GER Decades of 3 party competition (centre-seeking coalitions); now polarized coalition alternatives NZ Initially an unexpected coalition of the ambitious, now more polarized coalition alternatives In each case these changes were driven by shifts in the underlying political alignments that the electoral system then reflected in the legislature and the governments they produced and supported

Choosing..... Remember  The electoral system is only one part of the political system – changing it will not fix all the province’s problems  Politicians and parties will adapt to changes in the electoral system in ways they believe will advantage them  It is likely to take 3 electoral cycles before a new system settles down  Every thing you predict will happen won’t  Some things you haven’t thought of probably will