Historical Patterns

S Curve Pattern of Adoption Time

Sources: CAB, SRI & AC Nielsen Cable Growth, Percent of TV Hshlds Subscribing to Cable

Pricing of Telephone Service New York to Chicago - 3 Minute Call (Current Dollars) Source: Historical Statistics of the U.S.; FCC

Average Price of Selected Electronic Products (Current Dollars ) Source: EIA; Sterling and Haight: Us Dept. of Commerce

Price of Selected Electronic Products In Terms of Weekly Household Income Number Of Weeks Income To Pay For Product Source: US Department of Commerce * Year Technology Entered Half of US Households

Average Price Of Home Computers 1981 to 1998 Dollars Sources: Dataquest; US Dept of Commerce

Number of Years to Reach 50% Penetration of U.S. Households Sources: Electronic Industry Association; US Dept. of Commerce; Dataquest Newspapers100+ Telephone 70 Phonograph 55 Electricity 43 Cable Television 39 FM Radio 30 Color Television 17 Personal Computer 17 Compact Disk Player 15 VCR 10 AM Radio 9 Black & White Television 8

Percentage of U.S. Households With Telephone Service Source: US Dept. of Commerce

Replacement Cycles For Electronic Products Product Average Life Cycle Cordless Telephone 10 Years Color TV 8 Camcorder 7 CD Player 7 VCR 6 Personal Computer 6 Telephone Answering Machine 5 Fax 4 Source: Gannett News Service & Appliance

Computer Households With Modems Source: Veronis & Suhler Percentage of PC Homes With A Modem

Average Monthly Cellular Phone Bill Source: Cellular Telecom Association

Business Vs Personal Cellular Phone Use (Percentage of Bills Paid By Businesses vs Individuals) Source: Cellular Telecom Industry Association Business Use Personal Use

Share of Radio Audience Source: Statistical Research FM Radio % of Audience AM Radio

Current Media Trends

Penetration of Media, 1999 Percentage of U.S. Households With Technology or Service, Jan Sources: CEMA; NY Times; Video Business, CTIA

Household Spending on Subscription Video Services - Cable, Satellite, MMDS & SMATV, (Actual & Projected) Source: Veronis, Suhler & Assoc. $ Billion

How U.S. Households Receive TV Broadcast Only 22% Cable, Satellite or Other 78% Source: SRI; Cable World

Network Primetime Audience Share Source: Veronic, Suhler & Assoc.

Broadcast & Cable Viewing Share and Revenue Share, 1998 Source: Veronis & Suhler Broadcast TV 56.5% Basic Cable 37.2% Pay Cable 6.3% TV Networks 29.2% TV Stations 42.7% Cable 18.9% Barter/Syndication 4.7% Total Day Viewing Share Ad Revenue Share

Number of TVs In Households Percentage of Households Source: SRI CONTAM Survey Number of TVs

Number of Household Telephones Percentage of Households Number of Telephones Source: SRI CONTAM Survey

Number of Household PCs Percentage of Households Number of Personal Computers Source: Cable World Survey 45% of PC owners have a PC and TV in the same room

Spending on Technology in U.S. K-12 Public Schools, Source: Quality Education Data $ Billion * Estimated

Internet Trends

Number of US Households Subscribing To An Online/Internet Service Provider, Source: Veronic & Suhler; Jupiter Communication, Decision Analysts Millions of Households Online in 1998: 31% of Adults 27 % of Those Under 18

Education Level of Adult Internet Users, 1998 Less than H.S.18% 4% H.S. Grad34 25 Some College25 31 College Grad24 39 Gen. Population Internet Users Source: US Census Bureau; Pew Research Center

Percentage of Adults Online By Household Income, 1998 Source: Cyberdialogue/Findsvp

Percentage of Adults Online By Age, 1998 Source: Cyberdialogue/Findsvp

Percentage of Adults Online By Ethnic Group, 1998 Source: Cyberdialogue/Findsvp

Gender of Internet Users in the U.S. Female Male % 14% 52% 86% Source: GVU; Pew Research Center

Top 10 Web Sites Most Frequently Visited Web Sites - January, 1999 Source: Media Metrix 1 Yahoo 2 AOL 3 MSN 4 Go 5 Geocities 6 Netscape 7 Excite 8 Lycos 9 Microsoft 10 Tripod

Electronic Commerce: Consumer Purchases on the Web Billions of Dollars Source: Forrester Research; WSJ

Have You Ever Shopped on the Web? Source: International Data Corp.; Cable World Percentage of Web Users Who Say They Have Made a Purchase on the Web

Cost To Deliver a 42-Page Document New York To: Los Angeles Tokyo Via.... Source: Interactive Week

Cost of Banking Transactions Cost Per Tranaction Source: Booz-Allen & Hamilton; US Dept. of Commerce

Growth in Web Advertising Revenue Source: Internet Advertising Bureau Billions of Dollars

Will People Pay for Content on The Web? WSJ$ The Street.com 99 25,000 Slate* 20 23,000 ESPN ,000 Playboy Cyber Club 72 30,000 Content Source Cost Per YrEst. Subcribers Source: Crain's NY Business In 1998, subscription revenue was 2 percent of all Web revenue. * Abandoned subscription model in 1999

International Trends

Per Capita GDP ($US 1996) Telephone Lines Per 100 Pop. ('97) Source: ITU Per Capital GDP & Telephone Lines

Households With Telephone Service, 1996 Percentage of Households Source: ITU

Countries With The Most Cellular Subscribers Per 100 Population, Finland Norway Sweden Guam Hong Kong Israel Japan* 36.7 *U.S. ranks 14th with 25.0 Source: The Stratigic Group; USA Today RankN of Cell Phones Per 100 People

Cable TV Satellite Source: The Strategis Group Cable TVand Direct Broadcast Satellite (DBS) Penetration, 1998 Percent of TV HHs

Internet Access in Selected Countries, 1998 Source: The Strategis Group Percentage of Households

Internet Content Worldwide: Language and Source, 1998 Language of Web Sites Source of Web Sites Other Languages 15% English 85% U.S. 80% Other Countries 20% Source: Fortune

Projected Distribution of World Online Households By Region, 2000 North America 57% 38.2 Million HHs Europe 25% 16.5 Million HHs Asia/Pacific Rim 15% 10 Million HHs Other Regions 3% 1.9 Million HHs Source: Jupiter Communications/Multichannel News

Spotlight on China: Technology & Media Usage, 1998 Technology in Households TV 25% Telephone Line 3 Personal Computer 1-2 Credit Cards 1-2 Internet <1 China Population 1.2 Billion Rural 70% Urban 30% Source: Grey Advertising; The Industry Standard

Spotlight on China: Technology & Media Usage, continued Technology Use By Households In Four Cities* Source: Grey Advertising; The Industry Standard Pagers 62% Cell Phone 32 Personal Computer 16 DVD 3 * Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, & Chengdu Growth of Web Users Users , ,200,000

Social Trends That Affect Media Usage & Impacts of Media on Social Life

Growth of ATM Machines in the U.S Sources: The Nielson Report, Diebold 190,000

Growth in Remote Control Penetration Percentage of TV Households With Remotes Sources: EIA, SRI; Video Business

Two-Income Households: Percentage Of Married Couples With Both Spouses Working Source: U.S. Department of Labor

Pressed For Time: Percentage of People Who Feel Rushed And Have No Spare Time Source: Maryland Univ. Time Use Project

Home Offices in the U.S Sources: IDC/Link, Find/SVP Millions of Households

Telecommuters People Who Work Part Time or Full Time At Home Millions of Workers Sources: USA Today/Link; Find/SVP

Mobility : Percentage of U.S. Households That Move Each Year Source: U.S. Department of Labor

Press Stories About The Internet And Privacy Selected Newspapers, Magazines & TV News Sources, Source: Greystone Communications

Privacy Concerns: Percentage of People Who Say They Are Concerned About Privacy Source: Louis Harris Assoc../SNET/Equifax

Percentage of U.S. Population 65 or Older: Actual and Projected Source: US Census Bureau

Average Household Size Sources: Historical Statistics of the US; American Demographics

Skepticism " We are in a great haste to construct a magnetic telegraph from Main to Texas, but Maine and Texas, it may be, have nothing important to communicate." Henry David Thoreau, 1849

Hype and Stock Speculation IPO... Anglo -American Brush Electric Lighting Corp., 1882 Source: The Economist

Hype and Stock Speculation IPO of Anglo -American Brush Electric Lighting Corp., Source: The Economist

Serendipity Two U.S. companies rent audio-books on tape to truck drivers at truck stops on the East coast. Drivers rent at one stop and return the tapes further up the road. -- The New York Times, 12/26/98

Communications Sector of U.S. Economy Total Revenues in Billions Source: Census Bureau; 1998 Telecom Market Review Communication Services Communication Equipment

Information Technology: Share of U.S. Economy % of GDP Source: US Dept. of Commerce

U.S. Industries Ranked By 5-Yr Growth US Industry Rank Compound Annual Growth Telecommunication Services 1 9.4% Electronic Equipment & Services Educational Services Communications Media Motor Vehicles & Parts5 7.0 Insurance6 6.9 Health & Medical Services7 6.3 Source: Verronis & Suhler; US Dept. of Commerce

US Labor Force, Percentage of All Workers in Each Job Category Source: US Dept. of Commerce Agriculture Industrial Services

How Companies Train Workers Classroom Instruction Electronic/ Web Other 1997 Corporate Training = $61 Billion Source: Am. Society for Training