The Challenge of Meeting Freight Infrastructure Demands: Public-Private Partnerships the Answer? Jim Hixon Exec. Vice President Law & Corporate Relations Norfolk Southern Corporation June 2007

Overview I.Freight Capacity Constraints and the Need for New Rail Infrastructure II.Rail Infrastructure Economics – An Overview III.Two PPP Models IV.Public Benefits of Rail

Summary Freight demand growing rapidly; more rail infrastructure needed Both public and private investment will be required to meet future rail infrastructure needs Federal incentives would increase private investment in rail infrastructure More rail infrastructure would produce substantial public benefits

Major Freight Growth Projected (Domestic Tons All Modes) ATA DOT AASHTO* All figures indexed with each source’s 2005 traffic levels equal to 100 percent *AASHTO: American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials

Highway Capacity Already Strained Interstate traffic has grown much faster than lane miles Source: Dept. of Transportation, National Transportation Statistics VMT per Lane Mile Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Lane Miles

More Highway Gridlock Coming Source: Dept. of Transportation, FHWA Freight Analysis Framework Truck Traffic

Rail Capacity Already Strained Class I Rail ton-miles have increased dramatically without growth in track miles Source: Dept. of Transportation, National Transportation Statistics Ton Miles per Mile of Track Ton Miles Track Miles

Variety of Forces Pushing More Freight to Railroads

Source: Census Bureau, STB All figures based on 2002 economic census except railroads and trucking All transportation includes NAICS 48 industries including: air, rail, trucking, water and pipeline transportation Trucking figures are average for NAICS 484 based on Census Services Annual Survey Railroad figures are average based on STB R-1 filings (Class I railroads cash capital) Capital Investment as a % of Revenue Railroads Are Highly Capital Intensive

Source: AAR Revenue Volume Productivity Price Staggers Act Passed Oct U.S. Freight Railroad Performance Since Staggers Index 1981=100

Freight Rail Investment Challenge AASHTO (American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials) issued a study in 2003 analyzing the state of freight rail capacity concluded that freight railroad investment must grow sharply over next 20 years to maintain railroads’ share of growing freight traffic also found that freight railroads may not be able to attract necessary investment to handle their share of growing freight demand

AASHTO Investment Goal Based on averages of AASHTO estimates adjusted for inflation Investment needed to…

Support for AASHTO Findings Subsequently, similar concerns about the ability of the industry to attract necessary capital have been expressed by: CBO Transportation Research Board Hudson Institute

Capital Investment Has Grown in Tandem with Profitability… Historical nominal dollars invested based on STB R-1 filings (Class I railroads cash capital) Industry profits based on R-1 filings of Class I railroads

Yet Industry Capital Investment Still Insufficient to Meet AASHTO Goal Based on averages of AASHTO estimates adjusted for inflation to nominal dollars Trend in actual investment levels based on regression of historical nominal dollars invested (from STB R-1 filings, Class I railroads cash capital) Trend in industry profits based on regression of historical nominal profits excluding 1991 losses (from STB R-1 filings, Class I railroads) Investment needed to…

Past Industry Capital Investment Shortfalls Will Require Even Higher Levels Than Projected Based on averages of AASHTO estimates adjusted for inflation to nominal dollars Actual investment levels from STB R-1 filings (Class I railroads cash capital) Investment needed to…

Past Industry Capital Investment Shortfalls Will Require Even Higher Levels Than Projected Necessary investment levels based on averages of AASHTO estimates adjusted for inflation Actual investment levels from STB R-1 filings (Class I railroads cash capital) Investment needed to…

An Overview Rail Infrastructure Economics

The Fundamental Infrastructure Financing Issue Issue is not whether capital exists – capital markets have effectively unlimited capital Issue is the number of infrastructure projects where expected risk-adjusted investment returns meet or exceed capital costs Much of infrastructure “need” being discussed are projects that have high returns to customers and for the country, but low returns to the railroad, at least at current pricing

Rail Infrastructure Economics Market Return Cost of Capital HIGHER RETURN PROJECTSLOWER RETURN PROJECTS

Rail Infrastructure Economics Market Return Depressed Return Cost of Capital -- Subsidies to competition -- Sector-specific government mandates (e.g., HAZMAT) -- Price regulation -- Risk of increased regulation ACTUAL HIGHER RETURN PROJECTS LOWER RETURN PROJECTS

Rail Infrastructure Economics Market Return Depressed Return Social Return Cost of Capital -- Less pollution -- Less transportation congestion -- Reduced energy consumption -- Increased safety OPTIMAL ACTUAL HIGHER RETURN PROJECTS LOWER RETURN PROJECTS HIGHER RETURN PROJECTS LOWER RETURN PROJECTS

Rail Infrastructure Economics Market Return Depressed Return Social Return Cost of Capital …Proposed PPPs objective: Reduce gap by lowering cost of capital PROGRESS HIGHER RETURN PROJECTS LOWER RETURN PROJECTS

Two PPP Models Direct Investment by BOTH the Public and the Private Sector “Indirect” Support by the Public: Investment Tax Credits for Rail

Direct Federal Investment: Highway Bill Principal Sections Section 1301 – Projects of National & Regional Significance Track, Technology, Facilities Section 1702 – High Priority Projects Technology, Small Facilities Section – Private Activity Bonds Large Facilities Other Mechanisms [CMAQ, TIFIA, RRIF]

Heartland Corridor Columbus Rickenbacker Ashville Huntington Kenova Prichard Williamson Welch Bluefield Roanoke Petersburg Richmond Washington, DC Christiansburg Portsmouth To Chicago, Detroit, and Points West VA OH WV KY Portsmouth Western Freeway Rail Corridor Central Corridor Double-Stack Initiative, and Roanoke and Pritchard Intermodal Facilities 2. Related Terminal Capacity 3. Western Freeway Rail Corridor L E G E N D The Heartland Corridor Portsmouth Norfolk 16`4 CIDMMA PMT NITNIT MaerskMaersk CIMT (Proposed)

Chicago’s Rail Corridors

Charlotte IM Terminal Bring in the PAB leveraging effect!!

Indirect Federal Support Investment Tax Incentive Legislation Introduced Last Congress and this Congress Provides for 25 % Credit for “new” capacity Applies to track, technology, facilities, and locomotives The rail industry has a number of corridor projects, like the I-81 Crescent Corridor on NS, that could be facilitated by this type of PPP

Why Are Tax Incentives Needed?  2006 CBO Report recognizes that a variety of forces complicate railroads’ ability to attract capital: Tax policies tilt infrastructure playing field in favor of competitors Railroads bear complex risk on immobile investment Continued government regulation imposes pricing and operational constraints and many industry- specific financial burdens

Tax Credit for Qualifying Property 25% tax credit for investment in property that allows for an increase in the speed, weight, or volume of freight moved “Star Trek” property Bridge or tunnel expansion Qualified new locomotives

Public Benefits of Freight Rail Incentives A single intermodal train can remove up to 280 trucks from roadway travel … … saving lives and fuel; reducing congestion, pollution and greenhouse gases

Public Benefits of Freight Rail: Less Congestion Sources: FMCSA & FRA / DOT & DOE / U of Iowa & DOT / Texas Transportation Institute & Transportation Research Board Rail Trucks Highway congestion caused by rail is minimal

Public Benefits of Freight Rail: Less Pollution and Greenhouse Gas Sources: FMCSA & FRA / DOT & DOE / U of Iowa & DOT / Texas Transportation Institute & Transportation Research Board Ratio of Emissions per ton-mile (2003) Rail Trucks

Public Benefits of Freight Rail: Fewer Fatalities Sources: FMCSA & FRA / DOT & DOE / U of Iowa & DOT / Texas Transportation Institute & Transportation Research Board Rail Trucks

Public Benefits of Freight Rail: Reduced Energy Consumption Sources: FMCSA & FRA / DOT & DOE / U of Iowa & DOT / Texas Transportation Institute & Transportation Research Board Rail Trucks

Public Benefits From Expanded Rail Capacity Projections based on costs of congestion, accidents, air pollution derived from FHWA, Texas Transportation Institute, EPA and other sources Toxic air pollution does not include the costs of carbon dioxide emissions

Public Benefits From Expanded Rail Capacity Projections based on costs of congestion, accidents, air pollution derived from FHWA, Texas Transportation Institute, EPA and other sources Toxic air pollution does not include the costs of carbon dioxide emissions Social Cost Differential Between AASHTO Reduced Share and Increased Share Scenarios: Totals $200 Billion Over 20 Years

The Challenge of Meeting Freight Infrastructure Demands Questions?