Markus Amann International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

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Presentation transcript:

Markus Amann International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

After 1990 Asian emissions have grown rapidly due to fast economic development SO 2 NO x GDP

Per-capita NO x emissions

Air pollution causes severe health impacts India, 2000 (Source: GAINS-India) Loss in statistical life expectancy from exposure to outdoor PM2.5 DALYs from air pollution

The economic projection of the Indian government provided by TERI CO = 100%

Air pollution will grow too despite the current Indian pollution control legislation 2000 = 100% SO 2 NO x PM2.5

Health impacts from PM2.5 in 2030 for governmental energy projection + current AQ legislation Loss in statistical life expectancy from exposure to outdoor PM2.5 DALYs from air pollution

CO 2 emissions Baseline projections with current measures, 2000 and 2030 CO 2 /capita GDP/capita Total CO 2 emissions

Combined AQ and CC measures: 1) Phase-out of solid fuels in domestic sector DALYs from air pollution CO 2 emissions

Combined AQ and CC measures: 2) End-of-pipe measures Level in 2000 Emissions from electricity generation in Andra Pradesh

Costs of electricity generation Andra Pradesh, 2030 (Source: GAINS-India)

Combined AQ and CC measures: 3) Sustainable energy systems Differences: 1 million ton less CO 2 emissions/year in billion $/yr less control costs for air pollution 8 months life expectancy or 10 million life years gained per year Governmental energy baselineAlternative sustainability energy path Loss in statistical life expectancy from PM2.5 in 2020 (with current legislation on air pollution controls) Governmental energy baseline

Emission trends in China

Costs of CO 2 reductions for China in 2020 and associated changes in air pollutants emissions

Conclusions In addition to “conventional” air pollution problems from industrial sources, AQ impacts from poverty add an additional burden in developing countries. Interactions between air pollution and GHG mitigation are equally relevant for developing countries. Well-selected measures to improve local air quality in the near term can deliver co-benefits on GHG emissions.

GAINS-Asia is freely accessible at the Internet