Materials and the Environment (Most recent update January 7, 2006)

Solving Environmental Problems General Global Trends – Population – Economy Raw Material Consumption Trends – Wood – Other Materials Options to Wood Use

Solving Complex Problems Requires a Combination of: Rational thinking The use of realistic assumptions Global or systematic analysis

Environmental Problems Species loss Global warming Acid rain Ozone depletion Population growth Garbage/litter Desertification Tropical deforestation Urban sprawl Aquifer depletion Topsoil erosion Pollution of coastal waters Wetlands loss

Population

World Population Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Programs Center, 2002

World Population Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Programs Center, 2002

World Population Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Programs Center, 2006.

World Population Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Programs Center, 2006.

World Population (Medium Projection of Growth Assumed After 2000) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Programs Center, 2006.

Number of years to add each billion (year) All of Human History (1800) 123 (1930) 33 (1960) 15 (1975) 12 (1987) 12 (1999) 13 (2012) 16 (2028) 26 (2054) Growth in Global Population Sources: First and second billion: Population Reference Bureau. Third through ninth billion: United Nations, World Population in 2300 (medium scenario), All of recorded history

Millions Annual Increase in World Population, Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision, Data for 1990 through 2005 from U.S. Census Bureau, International Division.

Rates of birth, death, and natural increase per 1,000 population Natural Increase World Birth and Death Rates, Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.

Rate of Population Increase Time UnitPopulation Increase Year 74,281,173 Month 6,190,098 Week 1,428,484 Day 205,510 Hour 8,480 Minute 141 Second 2.4 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Division, 2006.

Average Annual Rate of Population Growth for the World, 1950 – 2020 – Continuing Decline Since 1970 Percent Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Division, 2004.

Medium Projections of Population Growth (billions) World Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Division, 2006.

The world population will increase 60 to 90 percent within the lifetime of a child born today

Growth of U.S. Population, Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006.

Growth of U.S. Population, History Projection

Medium Projections of Population Growth (world population in billions, U.S. population in millions) World United States Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Division, 2006.

Growth of Minnesota Population,

Growth of Minnesota Population, History Projection Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006.

Medium Projections of Population Growth (world population in billions, U.S. and Minnesota populations in millions) World United States Minnesota Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Division, 2006.

World and U.S. populations will grow substantially within the lifetime of a child born today

No less significant, the world will be faced in the 21st century with the challenge of providing food, fuel, shelter, and clothing for a much larger population.

EconomyEconomy

Gross Domestic Product: The value of all goods and services produced within the borders of a nation

Gross World Product: The sum of all Gross Domestic Product values expressed in a common currency.

Gross World Product, Trillions of 1990 U.S. dollars Source: United Nations Statistics Division, An increase of 174 percent. World population increased about 72 percent over the same period.

Annual Growth in Gross Domestic Product for Nations Classified by Average Incomes, and Income Category Low income Low income excl. China and India Middle income Lower middle income Upper middle income Low and middle income East Asia and Pacific Europe and Central Asia Latin America and Caribbean Middle East and N. Africa South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa High income World Source: World Bank, 2001

China’s Gross Domestic Product (Exchange Rate Valuation) Billions of 1987 U.S. Dollars Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, 2002.

It is a virtual certainty that consumption of raw materials globally will increase substantially in the future.

Considering the combined effect of population growth and economic growth within developing nations, demand for new housing units globally over the next 50 years is likely to exceed one billion.

How in the world is society going to be able to pull this off and wind up with an environment that most of us would for our children and grand-children? agree is acceptable for our

Raw Material Consumption Trends

U.S. Growth in Basic Raw Materials Consumption, (Population growth during this period: 1.43x) Wood Steel Cement Aluminum Plastics Products 1.00x 1.80x 1.85x 5.28x 1.38x Source: Data for wood from USFS (2005); for cement, steel, and aluminum from the U.S. Geological Survey (2006); and for plastics from the National Commission on Materials Policy (1975) and the APC Plastics Industry Council (2006).

World Growth in Basic Raw Materials Consumption, (Population growth during this period: 1.72x) Steel Cement Aluminum PlasticsWood 1.60x 3.50x 3.00x 6.83x1. 27x Source: Data for wood from FAO (2006); for cement, steel, and aluminum from the U.S. Geological Survey (2006); and for plastics from the Association of Plastics Manufacturers in Europe (2002) and from Plastics Today magazine (2005).

Wood

Wood is a principal raw material in the world today.

Annual World Consumption of Various Raw Materials, 2004 Billion Metric tons Billion m 3 Roundwood Industrial roundwood Cement Steel Plastics Aluminum Source: Data for wood from FAO (2006); for cement, aluminum, and steel from the U.S. Geological Survey (2006);and for plastics from the Association of Plastics Manufacturers in Europe (2002) and from Plastics Today magazine (2005).

Annual U.S. Consumption of Various Raw Materials, 2004 Million Metric tons Million m 3 Roundwood Industrial roundwood Forest products (wd only) Cement Steel Plastics Aluminum Source: Data for wood from USFS (2005); for cement, steel, and aluminum from the U.S. Geological Survey (2006); and for plastics from the National Commission on Materials Policy (1975) and the APC Plastics Industry Council (2006).

U.S. Demand For Wood and Wood Products, (Million Cubic Feet, Roundwood Equivalent) Source: Howard, J U.S.D.A.- Forest Service, USFPL.

Global Wood Harvest, 1950 to 2004, with Projection to 2010 Million m 3 Source: FAO (2005)

Global Wood Harvest, 1950 to 2004 Million m 3 Source: FAO (2005)

Global Wood Harvest and Population, 1950 to Harvest (Million m 3 ) Source: FAO (2005); U.S. Census Bureau, Int’l Division (2005) Population (Billions)

The Amount of Biosphere Per Person Grows Smaller As The Population Grows...

The Same Is True of Forests

Forests Then and Now - World In 1800 –World population was 1 billion –There were about 11 acres of forests for each person in the world

Forests Then and Now - World In 1800 –World population was 1 billion –There were about 11 acres (4.5 ha.) of forests for each person in the world Today –World population is over 6 billion –There are about 1.4 acres (0.6 ha.) of forest for each person in the world

Forests Then, Now, and Future - World By the end of the next century –World population is expected to reach 10 to 11 billion –Even with zero loss of forests over the next 100 years, the amount of forest land for each person in the world will shrink to 0.7 to 0.8 acres (or about 0.3 ha.)

Forests Then and Now – U.S. Year PopulationForest Area (million ac.) Forest Area/ Capita (acres) ,000,000 1, ,300, ,000, ,000,

Forests Then, Now, and Future – U.S. Year Population Forest Area (million ac.) Forest Area/Capita (acres) ,000,000 1, ,300, ,000, ,000, ,000,

Forests Then, Now, and Future – Minnesota Year Population Forest Area (million ac.) Forest Area/Capita (acres) million million million

Sharp reductions in forest land/ capita virtually ensure escalating conflict over forest use, and raise the question of where needed wood supplies will come from in the future.

U.S. Trends in Raw Material Procurement

The U.S. is a net importer of most categories of raw materials used to support our economy and lifestyle.

Most metals Portland and masonry cement Petroleum (the basis for plastics) Wood and wood products

Net U.S. Imports of Selected Materials as a Percent of Apparent Consumption , and by Major Foreign Sources Material % Imported Principal Foreign Sources Columbium 100 Brazil, Canada, Estonia, Germany Mica (natural) 100India, Belgium, China, Germany Manganese 100S. Africa, Gabon, Australia, France Graphite 100China, Mexico, Canada, Brazil Strontium 100Mexico, Germany Bauxite/Alumina 100Australia, Jamaica, Guinea, Suriname Fluorspar 100China, S. Africa, Mexico Yttrium 100China, Japan, Austria, Netherlands Thallium 100Belgium, France, Russia, UK Rubidium 100Canada

Net U.S. Imports of Selected Materials as a Percent of Apparent Consumption , and by Major Foreign Sources Material % Imported Principal Foreign Sources Asbestos 100Canada Quartz (crystal) 100Brazil, Germany, Madagascar Arsenic (trioxide) 100China, Chile, Morocco, Mexico Indium 100China, Canada, Japan, France Rare earth metals 100China, France, Japan, Estonia Rubidium 100Canada Vanadium 100Czech Rep., S. Africa, Canada, China Gemstones 99Israel, India, Belgium Platinum Group 91S. Africa, UK, Germany, Canada Bismuth 90Belgium, Mexico, China, UK

Net U.S. Imports of Selected Materials as a Percent of Apparent Consumption , and by Major Foreign Sources Material % Imported Principal Foreign Sources Tin 88Peru, China, Bolivia, Brazil Stone (dimension) 85Italy, Canada, India, Spain Diamond (indust) 85Ireland, Switzerland, UK, Russia Titanium (sponge) 85Kazakhstan, Japan, Russia Palladium 81Russia, S. Africa, UK, Belgium Tantalum 80Australia, Kazakhstan, Canada, China Barium (Barite) 79China, India Rhenium 79Chile, Kazakhstan, Mexico Cobalt 76Finland, Norway, Russia, Canada Iodine 74Chile, Japan, Russia

Net U.S. Imports of Selected Materials as a Percent of Apparent Consumption , and by Major Foreign Sources Material % Imported Principal Foreign Sources Tungsten 73China, Canada Chromium 72S. Africa, Kazakhstan, Zimbabwe, Russia Potash 70Canada, Belarus, Russia, Germany Magnesium Metal 68Canada, China, Russia, Israel Titanium concentrates 65S. Africa, Australia, Canada, Ukraine Petroleum 58Canada, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Venezuela, Nigeria Silicon 56S. Africa, Norway, Brazil, Russia Zinc 56Canada, Mexico, Peru

Net U.S. Imports of Selected Materials as a Percent of Apparent Consumption , and by Major Foreign Sources Material % Imported Principal Foreign Sources Beryllium 55Kazakhstan, Japan, Brazil, Spain Silver 54Mexico, Canada, UK, Peru Lithium >50Chile, Argentina Nickel 49Canada, Russia, Norway, Australia Magnesium Cpds 48China, Australia, Canada, Austria Copper 43Canada, Chile, Peru, Mexico Aluminum 41Canada, Russia, Venezuela, Mexico Diamond (dust, grit) 40Ireland, China, Ukraine Nitrogen (fixed) 38Trinidad and Tobago, Canada, Russia Lumber (softwood) 37Canada, EU, Chile, N. Zealand, Mex.

Net U.S. Imports of Selected Materials as a Percent of Apparent Consumption , and by Major Foreign Sources Material % Imported Principal Foreign Sources Mica 35Canada, India, China, Finland Garnet (industrial) 34Australia, India, China Pumice 26Greece, Italy, Turkey Perlite 23Greece Gypsum 26Canada, Mexico, Spain Salt 20Canada, Chile, Mexico, The Bahamas Cement (Port/msry) 23Canada, Thailand, China, Venezuela Sulfur 20Canada, Mexico, Venezuela Iron and steel 18EEC, Canada, Mexico, S. Korea

Net U.S. Imports of Selected Materials as a Percent of Apparent Consumption , and by Major Foreign Sources Material % Imported Principal Foreign Sources Wood/Wd. Prod. 12Canada, China, Indonesia, Finland, N. Zealand, Chile, Brazil Iron ore 8Canada, Brazil, Australia, Chile Phosphate rock 6Morocco Iron and steel slag 5Canada, France, Italy, Japan Talc 1China, Canada, France, Japan Also significant import dependency for Arsenic, Cesium, Gallium, Germanium, Leather, Natural Rubber, Selenium, Wool, Zirconium. Source: US Geological Survey, 2004.

The United States is also a net importer of durable and non-durable goods of all kinds.

The United States has been a net importer of wood and wood products for over 35 years.

Northeast Alaska Pacific Southwest Pacific Northwest Intermountain North Central South Central Southeast Growth Removals Growing Stock Consumption Non-growing Stock Consumption Billion Cubic Feet All U.S. Source: Shifley and Sullivan, U.S.F.S. - North Central Experiment Station (2002). Timber Growth, Removals, and Consumption by Region

Environmental Impacts of Materials Production

Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) Examination of all measurable: Raw material inputs Products and by-products Emissions Effluents Wastes

Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) Typically involves all stages in production, use, and disposal, including: Extraction Transportation Primary processing Conversion to semi-finished products Incorporation into finished products Maintenance Disposal/reuse

Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) Examines costs associated with specific environmental burdens: Cleanup costs Health impacts Landscape impacts Environmental impacts

Consider for a moment the environmental impacts of decisions regarding the construction of a residential home.

Relative Energy Consumption to Produce a Ton of: MaterialEnergy Aluminum 70 Steel 17 Brick 3.1 Concrete Blocks 3.0 Dry Lumber 1.0 Source: CORRIM I, National Research Council, 1976.

Comparative Energy Consumed in Manufacturing Wood vs. Steel-Framed Interior Wall (GJ) Source: Athena Sustainable Materials Institute, Wood Stud WallSteel Stud Wall Extraction Manufacturing Construction Total

Comparative Energy Consumed in Manufacturing Wood vs. Steel-Framed Interior Wall (GJ) Source: Athena Sustainable Materials Institute, Wood Stud WallSteel Stud Wall Extraction Manufacturing Construction Total x

What about an exterior wall?

What if the steel has 50% recycled content?

Net Carbon Emissions in Producing a Ton of: Net Carbon Emissions Material (kg C/metric ton) Framing lumber -460 Concrete 45 Concrete block 49 Brick 148 Glass 630 Steel 1,090 Aluminum 2,400 Plastic 2,810 Source: Honey and Buchanan, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, NZ, 1992.

Carbon Dioxide Emissions of Various Components in a Typical House House Frame Floor Wall Net Carbon Emission (kg C) Source: Honey and Buchanan, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, NZ, 1992.

Carbon Dioxide Emissions of Various Components in a Typical House House Frame Floor Wall Net Carbon Emission (kg C) Source: Honey and Buchanan, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, NZ, 1992.

Comparative Emissions in Manufacturing Wood vs. Steel-Framed Interior Wall Emission/Effluent Wood WallSteel Wall CO2 (kg) CO (g) 2,450 11,800 SOX (g) 400 3,700 NOX(g) 1,150 1,800 Particulates (g) VOCs (g)390 1,800 Methane (g) 4 45 Source: Athena Sustainable Materials Institute, 1993.

Comparative Effluents in Manufacturing Wood vs. Steel-Framed Interior Wall Emission/Effluent Wood WallSteel Wall Suspended solids (g) 12, ,640 Non-ferrous metals (mg) 62 2,532 Cyanide (mg) 99 4,051 Phenols (mg) 17, ,994 Ammonia (mg) 1,310 53,665 Halogenated organics (mg) ,758 Oil and grease (mg)1,421 58,222 Sulphides (mg) Source: Athena Sustainable Materials Institute, 1993.

It all comes down to this: Although periodic harvesting of forests is viewed as environmentally undesirable in some circles, failure to responsibly harvest triggers a number of undesirable environmental impacts. These impacts are often quite substantial.

Options to Domestic Harvest of Timber Shift to use of raw materials other than wood. Use wood, but import needs. Reduce the rate of raw material consumption/recycle.

Shift to Non-Wood Raw Materials A massive substitution would be necessary to significantly impact wood use. Needs are already largely imported. Gathering and processing of potential substitute materials is relatively energy intensive, with large environmental impacts.

Use Wood, But Import Needs

Importing Raw Material Needs as a National Environmental Strategy... Is unethical Has adverse implications for – Global environment – Balance of trade – Long term economic security

Reduce the Rate of Raw Material Consumption... Probably a good idea, at least in U.S., but.. World population is likely to double within the relatively near term Large segments of the world population are seeking to consume more, not less. Population gains in developing countries translate to relatively larger increases in demand for raw materials.

Summary

Substantial increases in population are certain. Substantial increases in global raw material demand will occur. Competition for basic raw materials will continue to increase.

Summary Figuring out how to provide a billion new housing units for a growing population while also protecting the environment will a non-trivial undertaking.

Summary Wood will be clearly be an important part of the sustainability equation. In fact, for the sake of the environment, a strong case can be made that we should use as much wood as possible.