Queen's University School of Policy Studies1 Immigration: A View of the Present and Thoughts for the Future Arthur Sweetman School of Policy Studies Queens University

Queen's University School of Policy Studies 2 Structure of this (short) presentation I. Whats happening? II. How is it happening? III. Can we improve whats happening?

Queen's University School of Policy Studies 3 Part I - Whats happening? Recent immigrants labour market outcomes are declining relative to earlier cohorts of immigrants The decline is substantial and broadly based

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6 Part II - How is it happening? NOTE: Various explanations are not always mutually exclusive

Queen's University School of Policy Studies 7 What do we know about the decline? Analyses of labour market data suggest 1) At most about 1/3 rd is associated with changes in language ability (mother tongue and official language knowledge) and region of origin 2) About 1/3 rd follows from a massive reduction in the economic return to pre- Canadian labour market experience (especially for those from non-traditional source countries)

Queen's University School of Policy Studies 8 3) At least another 1/3 rd is associated with declining entry conditions Two issues here: a) Immigrants who arrive in recessions appear to have economic scars that endure b) New Canadian labour market entrants, especially males, have been experiencing declining labour market outcomes. New immigrants, regardless of their age at immigration, and young Canadian- born labour market entrants both face the same challenge of declining real earnings

Queen's University School of Policy Studies 9 What about education? The decline does NOT appear to be highly related to a fall in the return to pre-Canadian education Immigrants receive a lower economic return to their pre-Canadian education, but the return has not declined much across entry cohorts

Queen's University School of Policy Studies 10 Pre-labour market factors are important Researchers can explain some of the gross differences in labour market outcomes by taking individual characteristics, such as language ability, into account Is there a pure discrimination component? Maybe acculturation is a better term for some (but not all) of what we observe?

Earnings Gaps for Visible Minorities by Immigrant Status Cdn Born Immigrants – by Age at Immigration. Age20-29Age 35-64<Age13

Queen's University School of Policy Studies 12 Part III - Can we improve whats happening? 1) Return to Absorptive Capacity in the labour market to reduce economic scarring upon entry (i.e., return to an immigration rate that varies with the business cycle; this has nothing to do with changing the immigration rate over the long-run) 2) Slightly revise points system for education a) Skilled Trades b) Post-secondary Field of Study

Queen's University School of Policy Studies 13 3)Intervene early since the labour market is not very good at fixing pre-labour market inequality a)Quebecs program that permits extra resources for schools in low SES neighbourhoods is a good example for kids (not only immigration related) b)Seriously undertake labour market oriented language training c)Facilitate upgrading of pre-Canadian education where required