POLAR OPERATIONS AND SPACE WEATHER MIKE STILLS INTERNATIONAL OPERATIONS FLIGHT DISPATCH 29APR08

APRIL 04, 2008 UNITED COMPLETED IT’S 8000 th POLAR OPERATION WHEN FLIGHT 851 FLEW FROM CHICAGO TO BEIJING ON POLAR 4

TOKYO HONG KONG SHANGHAI CHICAGO WASHINGTON 82 N ABERI DEVID RAMEL ORVIT UAL POLAR ROUTES BEIJING NIKIN

STRONG WINTER WINDS PREVENT YEAR ROUND NON STOP CHICAGO TO HONG KONG SERVICE VIA ESTABLISHED ROUTES POLAR ROUTES IDENTIFIED AS VIABLE ALTERNATIVE 1998 – CATHAY PACIFIC OPERATED POLAR TEST FLIGHT 1999 – UNITED OPERATED POLAR DEMO FLIGHTS

HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE YEAR TO YEAR POLAR DEMO FLIGHTS POLAR FLIGHTS POLAR FLIGHTS POLAR FLIGHTS POLAR FLIGHTS POLAR FLIGHTS POLAR FLIGHTS POLAR FLIGHTS POLAR FLIGHTS

FLIGHT 829 ORD-HKG POLAR PSGRS AND 5000 lbs CARGO (14:32) ECONOMIC COMPARISON OF NON-STOP OPTIONS (MARCH 2006) FLIGHT 829 ORD-HKG RUSSIA 246 PSGRS AND NO CARGO (15:41) FLIGHT 829 ORD-HKG NOPAC NO PSGRS OR CARGO (17:18)

POLAR OPERATIONAL CONCERNS (DEFINED AS NORTH OF 78N LATITUDE) POTENTIAL HAZARDS 1) SOLAR ACTIVITY 2) COLD TEMPERATURES 3) DIVERSION SUPPORT 4) COMMUNICATION RESTRAINTS

FAA REQUIREMENTS POLAR TRAINING SATCOM (OR HF DATA LINK) AED (DEFIBRILLATORS) RECOVERY PLAN IN THE EVENT OF DIVERSION 2 COLD WEATHER ANTI-EXPOSURE SUITS ABILITY TO OPERATE IN AREAS OF MAGNETIC UNRELIABILITY FUEL FREEZE ANALYSIS PROGRAM PLAN FOR SOLAR ACTIVITY

POTENTIAL ISSUES HUMAN SAFETY FACTOR - LOWER, LESS EFFICIENT ALTITUDES TO LIMIT POSSIBLE EXPOSURE TO RADIATION COMMUNICATION FACTOR - FAA MANDATES RELIABLE COMMUNICATION OVER THE ENTIRE ROUTE OF FLIGHT ( SATCOM LOST AT 82 N/ RELIANCE ON HF ) NAVIGATION FACTOR - UAL AIRCRAFT EQUIPPED WITH GPS AND INERTIAL REFERENCE UNITS

DURING ADVERSE SOLAR ACTIVITY, UAL POLICY RESTRICTS FLIGHTS TO SPECIFIC ROUTES AND ALTITUDES. UAL POLICY IN PART, IS DERIVED FROM AND BASED ON THE NOAA SPACE WEATHER SCALES

POLAR WEATHER PACKAGE CONTAINS SOLAR ACTIVITY AND SWPC RECOMMENDATIONS ON SITE METEOROLOGISTS MONITOR SWPC WEBSITES AND MAINTAIN CONTACT WITH THE SWPC SWPC ENSURES UAL HAS TIMELY INFORMATION

SOLAR EVENTS AND RESPONSE JANUARY FLIGHTS OPERATED ON LESS THAN OPTIMUM POLAR ROUTES DUE TO SOLAR ACTIVITY CHICAGO TO HONG KONG ANCHORAGE STOP 4 CONSECUTIVE DAYS, PENALTY 180 TO 210 MINUTES CHICAGO TO BEIJING PENALTIES 18 TO 55 MINUTES BEIJING TO CHICAGO PENALTIES 55 MINUTES TO 80 MINUTES

SOLAR EVENTS AND RESPONSE SEPTEMBER EVENT 2005 CHICAGO TO HONG KONG - ANCHORAGE STOP, SCHEDULE PENALTY 180 MINUTES DECEMBER EVENT 2006 CHICAGO TO HONG KONG - ANCHORAGE STOP 2 CONSECUTIVE DAYS 5 OTHER FLIGHTS BOUND FOR ASIA FLEW LESS THAN OPTIMUM ROUTES AND/OR ALTITUDES

POLAR MOVEMENTS 3731 REPORTED MOVEMENTS IN REPORTED MOVEMENTS IN REPORTED MOVEMENTS IN 2007

GRL 15APRIL 2008 UAL KORD ZSPD ORVIT AAL KORD ZSPD ORVIT AAL KJFK RJAA ORVIT DAL KATL RKSI ORVIT DAL KATL ZSPD ORVIT UAL KIAD ZBAA ORVIT ACA CYYZ RJAA ORVIT ACA CYYZ VHHH ORVIT ACA CYYZ ZSPD ORVIT AAL KORD RJAA ORVIT KAL KORD RKSI ORVIT NWA KDTW RJAA ORVIT KAL KATL RKSI ORVIT NWA KDTW RJAA ORVIT NWA KDTW RJGG ORVIT CCA KJFK ZBAA ORVIT UAL KIAD RJAA ORVIT NWA KDTW RJBB ORVIT

A DECADE AGO THERE WAS NO NEED OR REQUIREMENT TO TAKE SPACE WEATHER INTO OPERATIONAL CONSIDERATION. TODAY, UNITED CLOSELY MONITORS SPACE WEATHER AND IS CONSTANTLY ENHANCING PROCEDURES TO MEET CRITERIA THAT RECENT RESEARCH AND DATA MANDATE.

WHAT WILL THE NEXT DECADE BRING?

PROCEDURAL CONSIDERATIONS GOES MONITORING D REGION ABSORPTION POLAR CAP ABSORPTION AURORAL ABSORPTION PARTICLE ENERGY LEVELS X RAY FLUX K INDEX PROTON FLUX

QUESTIONS?

THANK YOU!