1 SMH 10/11/2001 Contact Information: Dr. Howard J. Singer, Chief Research and Development Division NOAA Space Environment Center 325 Broadway Boulder, CO Background Aurora Photo of Boulder Flatirons and NCAR by: Stan Solomon/NCAR HAO

2 SMH 10/11/2001 Supporting Space Weather Users with the Space Environment Monitor (SEM) and Solar Imaging on GOES-R Outline: Space Weather SEC and NOAA Mission Goals SEM: GOES 8-12 to GOES R SEM Users The Future Third GOES-R Users’ Conference Broomfield, CO May 11, 2004 H. J. Singer, NOAA Space Envrionment Center GOES 8-12 Photo: NCAR Stan Solomon GOES NOP

3 SMH 10/11/2001 Space Weather: Sun to Earth A NASA animation of a space weather event as it starts at the sun and ends up at Earth –Solar Flare Light and X-Rays Particles –Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) Particles and Fields –Magnetosphere Deflects the solar wind Energy transfer from solar wind to magnetosphere when interplanetary field opposite direction of Earth’s field Accelerates particles –Ionosphere Accelerated particles collide with the atmosphere producing the aurora

4 SMH 10/11/2001 Space Weather: Sun to Earth A NASA animation of a space weather event as it starts at the sun and ends up at Earth –Solar Flare (Observed by GOES X-ray and particle instruments: SXI, XRS, EPS) Light and X-rays Particles –Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) (Observed by GOES proposed coronagraph: SCOR and proposed solar wind monitor) Particles and Fields –Magnetosphere (Observed by GOES particle and field instruments: EPS, MAG) Deflects the solar wind Energy transfer from solar wind to magnetosphere when interplanetary field opposite direction of Earth’s field Accelerates particles –Ionosphere (Observed by POES/NPOESS instruments) Accelerated particles collide with the atmosphere producing the aurora Space Weather: Sun to Earth

5 SMH 10/11/2001 GOES Space Environment Monitor Contributes to the SEC Mission and NOAA Mission Goals Space Environment Center Mission Nation's official source of space weather alerts and warnings Monitors and forecasts Earth's space environment Provides accurate, reliable, and useful solar-terrestrial information Conducts and leads R& D programs to understand the environment and to improve services Advises policy makers and planners Plays a leadership role in the space weather community Fosters a space weather services industry Space Weather Operations NOAA Mission Goals

6 SMH 10/11/2001 NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) Space Weather Instrumentation GOES 8-12 Satellites: GOES 8 (Launch: 4/13/94, EOL orbit raising 5/5/04) GOES 9 (Launch: 5/23/95, loaned to Japan) (Launch: 4/25/97, Operational) GOES 11 (Launch: 5/13/00, On-orbit storage) GOES 12 (Launch: 7/23/01, Operational) GOES NOP (Boeing production, launch start 12/04) GOES 10 Space Environment Monitor (SEM) Energetic Particle Sensor (EPS) Monitors the energetic electron, proton, and alpha particle fluxes e: 0.6 to 4.0 MeV, p: 0.7 to 700 MeV, a: 4 to 3400 MeV Magnetometer (MAG) Monitors the vector magnetic field second samples, ~0.1 nT sensitivity, +/ nT X-Ray Sensor (XRS) Monitors whole-Sun x-ray brightness in two bands Angstroms and Angstroms Solar X-ray Imager (SXI) – first on GOES 12 One - minute cadence, full disk, 5 arc sec pixels, 0.6 – 6 nm, 512 x 512 pixel array

7 SMH 10/11/2001 GOES NOP SEM Enhancement Summary Magnetometer (MAG) Two instruments operating simultaneously Energetic Particle Sensors (EPS) Lower electron (30 KeV) and proton (80 keV) energy limits More look-directions X-Ray Sensor (XRS) Eliminate electronic range-changing EUV Sensor (EUVS) New instrument with 5 wavelength bands 10 – 125 nm Solar X-Ray Imager (SXI) Improved sensitivity and resolution Autonomous event response

8 SMH 10/11/ Wavelength (nm) Solar Irradiance Solar Variability (max – min)/min IRVISUVEUVX-RAY GOES XRS GOES SXI GOES EUV POES SBUV NPOESS (SIM) NPOESS (TIM) Spectrum from Lean 1999 NOAA Observations Across the Solar Spectrum and Flux Variation with Solar Cycle EUV flux variation causes thermospheric temperature, density, composition, and scale height to vary with solar cycle X-ray flux variation causes immediate changes in the dayside ionosphere that affects signals that reflect from this region or propagate through it

9 SMH 10/11/2001 GOES R+ SEM: Improvements 1 MeasurementSpecificationsProducts Magnetospheric Plasma (SEISS- MPS) and Energetic Heavy Ion Sensor (SEISS-EHIS) Electrons and Protons 30 eV to 30 keV; Heavy Ions in 4 mass bands MeV/n Improved specification of spacecraft surface charging and single event upsets (SEU’s) Earth’s Magnetic Field (MAG) Data sampling goal 8 Hz instead of 2 Hz Improves monitoring of critical physical processes affecting energetic particles Soft x-ray emissions from the integrated solar disk (SIS/XRS) Dynamic Range 200,000 (was 100,000) Improved quality covering full solar dynamic range Extreme ultraviolet emissions from the integrated solar disk (SIS/EUVS) Include new options to meet spectral requirements with alternative techniques Improved height resolution in calculations of thermospheric heating rates and ionization rates; critical components in the modeling of the ionosphere and thermosphere SEISS – Space Environment In-Situ Suite; SIS – Solar Imaging Suite

10 SMH 10/11/2001 Solar X-ray Imager (SIS/SXI) –Increase dynamic range from 10 2 to 10 4 –Double sensitivity –Improve spatial resolution Coronagraph P3I –Detect Earth-directed coronal mass ejections up to 2500 km/s –Must cover approx. 12 R SUN /hour with three to four images LASCO C3GOES R GOES R+ SEM: Improvements 2 Solar X-Ray Imager and Coronograph SXI/EIT Nov 04 Storm

11 SMH 10/11/2001 P3I Coronagraph Needed to Improve Geomagnetic Storm Forecasts A coronagraph will answer questions similar to those asked about hurricanes: Did a CME occur? Will the CME hit the Earth, thus causing a geomagnetic storm? When will the storm begin? –1-3 days warning How strong will the storm be? How long will the storm last? Hurricane Isabel 09/18/2003 NASA/ESA SOHO Research Coronagraph observes Coronal Mass Ejections (CME’s) during October/November 2004 Halloween Storms

12 SMH 10/11/2001 User Involvement in Establishing GOES R Space Enviornment Monitor Instrumentation GOES Solar Imaging Workshop - October 2001 GOES Energetic Particle Workshop - October 2002 GOES Solar EUV Workshop - October 2002 Airline Workshop - February 2004 GOES R Workshops Formulation Phase Study Opportunities - Solar Imaging Suite (SIS) - Space Environment In-SituSuite (SEISS) - Magnetometer part of spacecraft procurement Space Weather Week

13 SMH 10/11/2001 Space Weather Week: Bridging the Gap of Research to Operations An annual, and growing, event at NOAA SEC that includes: Space environment user effects Impacts on economy, health, and safety Information for decision makers Relevant research Service enhancements Vendor meetings Interagency coordination (National Space Weather Program) International Space Environment Services SWW 2004 (April 13-16) had 250 attendees from industry, academia, government agencies.

14 SMH 10/11/2001 October/November 2003 Halloween Storms SEC’s First Service Assessment Service Assessment issued: “Intense Space Weather Storms October 19 – November 07, 2003” Alerts/Warnings –18 days w/Radio Blackouts –12 days w/Geomagnetic Storms –13 days w/Radiation Storms Selected Impacts –76% of NASA Earth and Space Science missions surveyed were affected –2 science instruments lost –ADEOS-2 spacecraft was lost –Airlines reported communications problems Polar route changes –NRC: > 6 nuclear power plants took mitigating action –Power grid: US preventative action Malmo, Sweden blackout DRAFT Numerous Alerts and Warnings issued based on GOES data

15 SMH 10/11/2001 Polar 2 Polar 3 Polar 1 Polar 4 Polar Airline Routes North Pole Chicago Hong Kong Alaska A major airline rerouted six polar flights to non-polar routes requiring fuel stops in Japan and/or Anchorage). Numerous other US flights rerouted or restricted. British controllers kept trans- Atlantic jets on more southerly routes than usual to avoid the communication problems. British Airways pilots deviated from the airline's flight plans and flew at lower altitudes amid concerns over health risks to passengers and crew from radiation. Aviation Impacts During Halloween Storms Radio Blackout During Particle Events C-130 operations in Antarctica changed landing and take-off restrictions during the HF blackout periods. GOES Energetic Particle Data Used for Airline Alerts and Warnings

16 SMH 10/11/2001 Flight controllers issued contingency directives for the ISS Expedition 8 crew to briefly relocate to the aft portion of the station's Zvezda Service Module and the Temporary Sleep Station (TeSS) in the U.S. Lab. (total – five 20-minute periods) NASA did a ground-commanded powerdown of the billion dollar robotic arm and workstation. ISS Environments System Team prepared to take other precautionary actions (e.g., shut down the S-band antenna controller and external color TV cameras) if radiation levels were to increase more than they did. The ISS Environments System Team also reported that the ISS experienced significant abnormal frictional drag. International Space Station Impacts

17 SMH 10/11/2001 In July 2003, during Hurricane Claudette, the NOAA National Hurricane Center website averaged 3.7 million hits per day. During the 15-day period - 24 Oct through 07 Nov, the SEC website averaged 6.2 million hits per day. How much interest was there in the Oct-Nov activity???

18 SMH 10/11/2001 Near the Earth and under the radiation belts - Shuttle and ISS ops: EVA scheduling, and occasional “sheltering”. Knowledge of current SWx situation required. In Cislunar and lunar orbits, lunar surface operations: Need for optimization of flight plans and ops with knowledge of current/evolving SWx. Predictive capability of SWx enhances exploration. Beyond the Moon - Ln and Mars: Need for optimization of flight plans and ops with knowledge of current SWx conditions. Predictive capability enables exploration. Figure adapted from Fisher/NASA Hq An Example for The Future: GOES SEM Measurements needed for Space Exploration

19 SMH 10/11/2001  GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) measurements provide crucial data to our Nation and the world for commercial and government applications and for understanding the space environment.  NOAA services must expand to meet the needs of our Nation’s increasing use of and reliance on the space environment.  User input has provided the necessary guidance to define GOES R SEM instrumentation.  GOES-R SEM activities are in the formulation phase. Summary

20 SMH 10/11/2001 Additional slides

21 SMH 10/11/2001 GOES SEM Measurements Benefit Users “Highest priority space weather need for NASA SRAG is a “Healthy” NOAA SEC…” M. Golightly, NASA/SRAG GOES Energetic Particle Measurements Support the ISS As of a May 2000 report, 138 insured satellites in geosynchronous orbit valued at $20.1 B. “Space weather suggested as cause or contributor to over $500 M in insurance claims in past 4 years. “ U.S. Aviation Underwriters, Inc Geosynchronous Assets Polar airline routes lose ground communications due to solar x-rays and energetic particles: Alternate routes required; Uses more fuel; Flight delays USA Japan ESA Hubble Variability in the EUV flux causes variability in the ionosphere. Radio Communication & Navigation GOES meaurements are useful for those concerned with: satellite drag; GPS uses; airline crew radiation exposure; electric power distribution….