Sustainability and Livability on a Regional Scale Date: 2/25/2011

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9/11/07 7:53 PM 3 Acknowledgements/Credits [Optional]

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9/11/07 7:53 PM 5 Learning Objectives Examine the development of regional growth policies and measure effectiveness over time. Explore effective regional processes and strategies that can be applied elsewhere. Examine the Bay region's policies, systems and plans and evaluate their effectiveness and legitimacy in a broad and long term sense. Review and evaluate whether or not the plans and policies have created effective land use strategies in terms of urban design, smart growth, conservation of open space and regional structure.

Developing a Sustainable Communities Strategy For the Bay Area Ezra Rapport, ABAG Executive Director Steve Heminger, MTC Executive Director

AB 32 Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 AB 32 establishes the first comprehensive program of regulatory and market mechanisms in the nation to achieve greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions AB 32 sets GHG emissions limit for 2020 at 1990 level Acknowledges that 2020 is not the endpoint Points way towards 80% reduction by 2050 Air Resources Board (ARB) adopted a Scoping Plan to achieve AB 32’s GHG emissions reduction target

California’s Three Pronged Approach to Reducing Transportation Greenhouse Gases (with AB 32 Scoping Plan estimates for GHG reductions in 2020) Cleaner vehicles (Pavley, AB 32) - 38 tons Cleaner fuels (Low-Carbon Fuel Standard) - 15 tons More sustainable communities (SB 375) - 5 tons

SB 375 Basics Directs ARB to develop passenger vehicle GHG reduction targets for CA’s 18 MPOs for 2020 and 2035 Adds Sustainable Communities Strategy as new element to RTPs Requires separate Alternative Planning Strategy if GHG targets not met Provides CEQA streamlining incentives for projects consistent with SCS/APS Coordinates RHNA with the regional transportation planning process

Develop a strategy that: Reduces GHG emissions from driving in the Bay Area Houses the region’s population at all income levels The Regional Task

Coordinating city, state, and regional investments Providing the necessary planning and capital supports for successful private investment in infill development Developing places with safe, convenient transportation options and access to a range of amenities The Regional Task

Bay Area Economy Today The Bay Area leads the nation in patents, venture capital, concentration of laboratories and research centers, technology exports, and education of the workforce. The Bay Area is the most productive region in the United States with an 84 percent advantage over the U.S. average of output per capita.

Building on an Existing Framework The region already has a local-regional partnership to support growth in sustainable Priority Development Areas and to protect important natural resources identified as Priority Conservation Areas. SB 375 is structured as a voluntary, incentive-based program.

Strategy for Growth What this means: The growth we are planning for over the next several decades will be very different from the outward expansion over the last few decades. With the demands for environmental resource conservation and infrastructure efficiency, infill development with streamlined permitting and financial support will be primary strategies.

Place Types This is a flexible framework for supporting sustainable growth in a range of places. Place Types Regional Center City Center Suburban Center Transit Town Center Urban Neighborhood Transit Neighborhood Mixed Use Neighborhood

Resources to Local Government Are Key State and regional capital grants New federal funding models (e.g. joint HUD/DOT/EPA programs) Self-help tools (e.g. value-capture such as tax increment financing) PDA Capital Funding Shortfall Category$ billions Transportation Infrastructure 6.3 Affordable Housing2.0 Parks1.4 Utilities0.9 Other Public Facilities0.9 Pre-Development Activities 0.6 TOTAL12.1

Location Matters Growing Cooler: Compared to sprawl, compact development results in a 20 to 40 percent reduction in VMT and hence in CO 2

Price Matters Too Core Pricing: Driving is more expensive in the urban core with higher parking costs and bridge tolls

Why Not Focus on Infrastructure?

Won’t Technology Save the Day?

ARB Adopted GHG Targets — September 2010 Percent Reduction in Per Capita Emissions from 2005 to Target Year Bay Area7%15% Sacramento7%16% San Diego7%13% Los Angeles8%13% Central Valley5%10%

Projections 2009  Current Regional Plans Reviewed Projections 2009 forecast with CMAs & Local Jurisdictions Reduced Employment Forecast by 205,000 jobs in 2010 and 707,000 jobs in 2035 Assumed RTP Transportation Network and Investments

Regional Job Projections Jobs in millions

County PopulationPercent Change Adopted PlanProj to 2035 Adopted Plan 2035 Adopted Plan to 2035 Proj 011 San Francisco 795,800969,0001,008,50022% 4%4% Santa Clara1,763,0002,431,4002,587,00038% 6% Alameda1,505,3001,966,3002,062,10031% 5% Contra Costa 1,023,4001,322,9001,373,40029% 4% Solano421,600506,500497,60020% -2% Napa133,700148,800147,20011% -1% Sonoma479,200561,500564,50017%1% Marin252,600274,300278,8009%2% San Mateo721,900893,000896,30024%>1% Total7,096,5009,073,7009,412,20028%4% Current Regional Plans

Current Regional Plans vs. Historical Trends Assumes higher rates of housing construction than seen historically (24,000 vs 20,000 annually) but still does not meet the housing target. Still results in insufficient affordable housing (historically about 40% of the region’s need). Continued commuting growth originating outside the region (jobs exceed employed residents by over 300,000 in 2035).

Revised GHG Emission Reduction Estimates (% per capita vs 2035) T-2035 w/Proj 07 +2%0%-2% T-2035 w/Proj 09 -7% T-2035 w/Proj 11 Increase GHG Reductions per capita -10% T-2035 w/Proj 11 w/New Model w/HOT Backbone w/Increased tolls

Targets Performance – Current Regional Plans (1)

Targets Performance – Current Regional Plans (2)

What’s the Overall Workplan? BAAQMDCEQA Guidance/ISR BCDC Bay Plan Amendment

Potential New Investment Strategies Grants for affordable housing close to transit Infrastructure bank to support investments in housing and jobs close to transit Transportation investments that reduce greenhouse gas emissions Infrastructure investments in small towns providing services and improving pedestrian access

A Local-Regional Partnership is Essential Land Use Transportation Sustainable Communities Strategy Local Authority Regional Authority

Changes In Attitude and Behavior Are Essential Breakthroughs are possible!

9/11/07 7:53 PM34 Evaluation Speakers (List alphabetically by last name regardless of speaking order) Jeffrey Heller, FAIA Ezra Rapport Will Travis

9/11/07 7:53 PM35 Contact Information Jeffrey Heller, FAIA Heller Manus Architects Steve Heminger Metropolitan Transportation Commission Ezra Rapport Association of Bay Area Governments Will Travis San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission