Higher Education Debt Financing

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Presentation transcript:

Higher Education Debt Financing IPED Higher Education Debt Financing April 2008 Matthew Pearson matthew.pearson@morganstanley.com (212) 762-8274

Table of Contents Why are Schools Issuing So Much Debt? IPED Table of Contents Section 1 Why are Schools Issuing So Much Debt? Section 2 Market Conditions Section 3 Issuance Process Section 4 Debt Structure Appendix A Disclaimer

Why are Schools Issuing So Much Debt? IPED Section 1 Why are Schools Issuing So Much Debt?

Key Questions Asked by Board Members IPED Why are Schools Issuing So Much Debt? Key Questions Asked by Board Members Why issue debt? Should we issue fixed-rate or variable-rate debt? Are derivatives worth it? How should we amortize our debt? How might future decisions be constrained by decisions made now? 1

IPED Section 2 Market Conditions

Historical Endowment Returns and Interest Rates IPED Market Conditions Historical Endowment Returns and Interest Rates Nacubo Endowment Returns - All 2

Tax-Exempt Fixed Rates IPED Market Conditions Tax-Exempt Fixed Rates Historical 30-Year MMD Rates March 1, 2007 to Present Source Morgan Stanley, Market1 3

Absolute Rates vs. Credit Spreads IPED Market Conditions Absolute Rates vs. Credit Spreads 4

Absolute Rates vs. Credit Spreads IPED Market Conditions Absolute Rates vs. Credit Spreads 5

IPED Section 3 Issuance Process

Finance Team Core Members IPED Issuance Process Finance Team Core Members Borrower Borrower Counsel Bond Counsel Conduit Issuer Underwriter’s Counsel Rating Agency Underwriter Bond Trustee Credit Enhancer Bond Trustee Counsel Credit Enhancer Counsel 6

Overview of the Financing Process IPED Issuance Process Overview of the Financing Process Documents Drafted Credit Enhancer Solicitation Borrower Decides to Issue Bonds Working Group Selected Preliminary Plan of Finance Determined Rating Agency Presentation Finalize Documents and Finance Plan Marketing Pricing and Post Sale 2-3 Months 7

IPED Section 4 Debt Structure

Fixed or Variable Budget process Asset-Liability Management IPED Debt Structure Fixed or Variable Budget process Asset-Liability Management Institutional preference Interest rate risk Credit risk Tax risk This material is not a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any security or other financial instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. This material was not prepared by the Morgan Stanley research department. Please refer to important information and qualifications at the end of this material. 8

10-400+ Basis Point Decision IPED Debt Structure 10-400+ Basis Point Decision Derivative transactions are ‘marked to market’ on financial statements Lower financing costs / relative value analysis 10 to 150 bps decision with concurrent risks Transfer or assume individual market risks Interest Rate Risk Credit Risk Tax Risk Customize structures Start dates Call options Knock-out options Conversion options Fixed / floating mix This material is not a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any security or other financial instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. This material was not prepared by the Morgan Stanley research department. Please refer to important information and qualifications at the end of this material. 9

BMA / LIBOR Ratios: Taking Tax Risk IPED Debt Structure BMA / LIBOR Ratios: Taking Tax Risk BMA to LIBOR Swap Ratios Tax Efficient Tax Inefficient Focus on Relationship in Short Term Market Focus on Long Term Market This material is not a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any security or other financial instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. This material was not prepared by the Morgan Stanley research department. Please refer to important information and qualifications at the end of this material. 10

BMA / LIBOR Ratios: Taking Tax Risk IPED Debt Structure IPED BMA / LIBOR Ratios: Taking Tax Risk Benefit of Tax Risk (SIFMA Versus 68% of LIBOR Swap) Basis Points ; 20Y Avg Life Source Morgan Stanley, Bloomberg 11

BMA / LIBOR Ratios: Taking Tax Risk IPED Debt Structure IPED BMA / LIBOR Ratios: Taking Tax Risk Text Title Text Subtitle Source Source text goes here Source Morgan Stanley, Bloomberg 12

BMA / LIBOR Ratios: Taking Tax Risk IPED Debt Structure BMA / LIBOR Ratios: Taking Tax Risk Top Federal Tax Rates Since 1916 % This material is not a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any security or other financial instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. This material was not prepared by the Morgan Stanley research department. Please refer to important information and qualifications at the end of this material. 13

Selling Options IPED Debt Structure Financing Opportunities Borrower pays a fixed rate and receives floating through cancellation date Morgan Stanley owns the ongoing right to cancel swap beginning at the cancellation date and semi-annually thereafter To Cancellation Date From Cancellation Date Cancellable at Morgan Stanley’s option Fixed Swap Rate Fixed Swap Rate Borrower Borrower Floating Rate Floating Rate Bonds Bonds This material is not a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any security or other financial instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. This material was not prepared by the Morgan Stanley research department. Please refer to important information and qualifications at the end of this material. 14

IPED Appendix A Disclaimer

Fundamental Risks of Derivatives IPED Disclaimer Fundamental Risks of Derivatives General Risks. In addition to any specific risk factors that may be discussed herein, there are other factors that may influence the performance of a specific municipal derivative product. Although the foregoing list is not exclusive, listed below are general risks associated with typical municipal derivative structures. Counterparty Risk. The risk that your counterparty will not perform pursuant to the contract’s terms thus exposing the issuer to variable rate bonds (i.e., not be hedged) and/or owing a termination payment. Issuers should carefully assess counterparty risk when engaging in municipal derivatives transactions. Basis Risk. Basis risk refers to the mismatch between the variable rate payments received on a swap contract and the interest payment actually owed on the bonds. The two significant components driving this risk are credit and BMA/LIBOR ratios. Credit may create basis risk because an issuer’s bonds may trade differently than the swap index as a result of a credit change in the issuer. BMA/LIBOR ratios (or spreads) may create basis risk under percentage of LIBOR swaps if the issuer’s bonds trade at a higher percentage of LIBOR than the index received on the swap. This can occur due to many factors including, without limitation, changes in marginal tax rates, tax exempt status of bonds, and supply and demand for variable rate bonds. Amortization Risk. This risk represents the potential cost to the issuer from a mismatch between outstanding underlying bond amortization and the outstanding notional amount of the swap. Amortization mismatches could also result in terminations of portions of the swap prior to maturity and under unfavorable conditions. Termination Risk. The risk that the swap could be terminated as a result of certain events including a ratings downgrade for the issuer or swap counterparty, covenant violation, bankruptcy, payment default or other defined events of default. Termination of a swap may result in a payment made by the issuer or to the issuer depending upon the market at the time of termination. 15

Additional Information IPED Disclaimer Additional Information This material was prepared by sales, trading or other non-research personnel of one of the following: Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated, Morgan Stanley & Co. International Limited, Morgan Stanley Japan Limited and/or Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Asia Limited (together with their affiliates, hereinafter “Morgan Stanley”). This material was not produced by a Morgan Stanley research analyst, although it may refer to a Morgan Stanley research analyst or research report. Unless otherwise indicated, these views (if any) are the author’s and may differ from those of the Morgan Stanley fixed income or equity research department or others in the firm. This material was prepared by or in conjunction with Morgan Stanley trading desks that may deal as principal in or own or act as market maker or liquidity provider for the securities/instruments (or related derivatives) mentioned herein. The trading desk may have accumulated a position in the subject securities/instruments based on the information contained herein. Trading desk materials are not independent of the proprietary interests of Morgan Stanley, which may conflict with your interests. Morgan Stanley may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services for the issuers of the securities and instruments mentioned herein. This material has been prepared for information purposes only and is not a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any security/instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. Any such offer would be made only after a prospective participant had completed its own independent investigation of the securities, instruments or transactions and received all information it required to make its own investment decision, including, where applicable, a review of any offering circular or memorandum describing such security or instrument. 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Additional Information IPED Disclaimer Additional Information Notwithstanding anything herein to the contrary, Morgan Stanley and each recipient hereof agree that they (and their employees, representatives, and other agents) may disclose to any and all persons, without limitation of any kind from the commencement of discussions, the U.S. federal and state income tax treatment and tax structure of the transaction and all materials of any kind (including opinions or other tax analyses) that are provided to it relating to the tax treatment and tax structure. For this purpose, "tax structure" is limited to facts relevant to the U.S. federal and state income tax treatment of the transaction and does not include information relating to the identity of the parties, their affiliates, agents or advisors In the UK, this communication is directed in the UK to those persons who are market counterparties or intermediate customers (as defined in the UK Financial Services Authority’s rules). For additional information, research reports and important disclosures see https://secure.ms.com/servlet/cls. The trademarks and service marks contained herein are the property of their respective owners. Third-party data providers make no warranties or representations of any kind relating to the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the data they provide and shall not have liability for any damages of any kind relating to such data. This material may not be sold or redistributed without the prior written consent of Morgan Stanley. 17